Wednesday, December 1, 2010

Phil Flynn: A Study In Contradictions

It's no wonder that oil is on track to have one of its flattest trading years since 2003. The last minute late November sell off was another sign that the bulls and bears lack true conviction as they to make sense of some obvious and some obscure fundamentals that are driving the price in this somewhat wide swinging emotional oil market. In fact the trading swan song for November and the first of December snap back really symbolizes omneity of the entire year in the oil market. In a normal time, better than expected readings on U.S. Manufacturing and consumer confidence might inspire an oil rally. You might think that oil would celebrate the fact that business expanded at a faster pace than thought for as the Institute for Supply Management-Chicago Inc. rose to 62.5 the highest since April from 60.6 in October increasing hopes that manufacturers would hire and invest in new equipment as their business booms.

Or perhaps the market might take heart from the fact that consumer confidence soared to a reading of 54.1, the highest level since June in the heart of the Christmas shopping season. Yet with the dark clouds emanating out of Europe and commodity funds getting frustrated with their $100 barrel oil bets, prices drove lower as funds wanted to take what profit incentive fees they could before they go flat for the holiday and start shopping for that GI Joe with the Kung-Fu grip for their kids. That was the case even as the dollar rallied, capping off a month where the dollar rallied off its QE2 lows hitting the highest levels since the Fed hinted that they would print more money as investors seek shelter from economic storm clouds in Europe. The oil bulls lost their moxie as risk in the......Read the entire article.


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