Tuesday, December 21, 2010

What Patterns are Telling Us That Gold is Going Up?

David Banister has been keeping us on top of gold lately with his expert use of Fibonacci and Elliot Wave patterns he has been shareing with us. This gold bull market has been moving in very reliable Elliott Wave and Fibonacci patterns for many years now, but once in awhile the waters get a little murky for sure. Recently we have seen a fair amount of volatility near year end as position squaring and year end machinations take hold. With that said, it does appear that Gold should be poised to power higher near term, and I’m looking for a completion to a 5 wave rally that began from about $1,040 per ounce in February of this year.

Over the past several weeks, I see a clear Fibonacci trading day relationship on Gold’s swings from pivot highs to pivot lows. 8 days of correction, 13 days of rally, 8 days of correction is the recent pattern over the past 5 weeks or so. Below is a chart outlining these crowd behavioral based patterns that I rely on for both my trading service and market forecasting services. You can see the clear relationships, confirmed by the stochastics indicators at the tops and bottoms as well:

Based on the recent patterns, I believe we completed a minor wave 3 from the February bottom at $1424 a little over 5 weeks ago, and had a shallow period of 8 days to complete a wave 4 to $1,330. Now, we are in the final 5th wave up pattern to complete an entire 5 wave move from February of 2010. In the near term then, I’m expecting a pretty strong rally from this recent $1365 area to at least $1,480 per ounce, and eventually a good shot at completing the structure at $1525 ranges. Short term, we should begin a wave 3 up here, followed by a 4th wave correction, and then a final and terminal 5th wave. Below is a multi- month weekly chart view of where I see us heading and where we’ve been.

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