Monday, December 20, 2010

With Quadruple Witching Behind us, How do we Trade on Monday?

The end of trading last week was interesting for traders. Fridays quadruple witching, [when contracts for stock index futures, stock index options, stock options and single stock futures all expire] is known to create some "dynamic moves" in the market. Most asset classes moved higher in Fridays session, including bonds, commodities, stocks and the U.S. Dollar. This is usually a bullish signal. This usually equates to a U.S. Dollar strength/weak assets trade. When this happened earlier in the fall of 2010 it was a prelude to a rally in most commodity names.

So is all of this just another sign that this economic recovery is more sustainable? This is new territory for this new world economy. Can we have a healthy U.S. economy when it relies on the Chinese economy that has been under performing for months as they try to reel in inflation? Any real growth in China and all of the BRIC nations is only going to bring the U.S. higher gas prices. And the chance of real recovery in the U.S. is ZERO in the face of $4.00 per gallon gasoline.

That's why so many fund managers are moving to a trade only plan and not investing for the long term. Take advantage of these bull runs and take your profits using todays trading numbers.....

Crude oil was higher overnight while extending this month's trading range. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 86.82 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. If January renews the rally off November's low, May's high crossing at 93.29 is the next upside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 90.76. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 93.29. First support is last Wednesday's low crossing at 86.83. Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 86.82. Crude oil pivot point for Monday morning is 88.50.

Natural gas was lower overnight as it extends this month's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If January extends this month's decline, November's low crossing at 3.853 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.318 would confirm that a short term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.318. Second resistance is this month's high crossing at 4.637. First support is last Friday's low crossing at 3.951. Second support is November's low crossing at 3.853. Natural gas pivot point for Monday morning is 4.042.

Gold was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of last week's decline but remains below the 10 day moving average crossing at 1389.20. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If March extends this month's decline, the reaction low crossing at 1352.00 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10 day moving average crossing at 1389.20 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 1389.20. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1432.50. First support is last Thursday's low crossing at 1361.60. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 1352.00. Gold pivot point for Monday morning is 1374.80.

Can you learn to trade crude oil in just 90 seconds?

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