Wednesday, June 30, 2010

Crude Oil Falls on Concerns China, U.S. Growth Is Slowing

Crude oil fell for a fourth day in New York, the longest losing streak in seven weeks, amid concern the economic recovery in the U.S. and China will slow, curbing demand in the world’s two largest energy consumers. Oil dropped 0.4 percent yesterday, capping the first quarterly decline since 2008, after reports showed a slowdown in U.S. private payrolls last month and an unexpected increase in weekly gasoline supplies. China’s manufacturing expanded at a reduced pace for a second month in June, adding to signs the fastest growing major economy is cooling.

“Sentiment on the economy can be considered still negative, not so strong,” said Ken Hasegawa, a commodity derivatives sales manager at broker Newedge Group in Tokyo. “The stock market is very weak and that’s helping crude oil to fall.” Oil for August delivery fell as much as $1, or 1.3 percent, to $74.63 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It was at $74.95 at 1:13 p.m. in Singapore. Yesterday, the contract decreased 31 cents to $75.63. Futures, down about 6 percent this year, lost 9.7 percent in the second quarter. The market is in its longest pullback since a six day drop through May 18.....Read the entire article.

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Crude Oil Bears Gain Momentum, Extend Tuesday's Decline

Crude oil closed lower on Wednesday as it extends yesterday's decline below the 20 day moving average crossing at 76.47. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. Closes below last week's low crossing at 75.17 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. If August renews the rally off May's low, the 62% retracement level of last month's decline crossing at 81.13 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 77.43. Second resistance is Monday's high crossing at 79.38. First support is today's low crossing at 74.39. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 70.93.

Natural gas closed higher due to short covering on Wednesday as it consolidates some of this month's decline. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible near term. If August extends this week's decline, the reaction low crossing at 4.285 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.871 would temper the near term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 4.841. Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.871. First support is today's low crossing at 4.477. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 4.285.

The U.S. Dollar closed slightly lower on Wednesday as it consolidates around the 25% retracement level of the November-June rally crossing at 85.71. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish hinting that a short term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 86.93 would confirm that a short term low has been posted. If September renews this month's decline, the 38% retracement level of the November-June rally crossing at 83.83 is the next downside target. First resistance is last Wednesday's high crossing at 86.71. Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 86.93. First support is last Monday's low crossing at 85.36. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the November-June rally crossing at 83.83.

Gold closed higher due to short covering on Wednesday but remains below the 10 day moving average crossing at 1244.90. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish hinting that a short term top might be in or is near. Closes below last Thursday's low crossing at 1225.20 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. If August renews this year's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will now be hard to project. First resistance is last Monday's high crossing at 1266.50. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 1227.60. Second support is last Thursday's low crossing at 1225.20.

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Phil Flynn: Firecracker!

Did someone light the fuse so the global economy could blow up again? Bullish dreams for oil exploded in a spectacular array of global economic worries. Forget about Hurricane Alex for the moment because the oil complex sure has. It is time to start worrying about the Euro zone, China, the end of the quarter and whether or not you can get reservations at the beach for the 4th of July fireworks. All of these issues played into yesterday massive stock market selloff. Traders worried about protecting any profits they may have and a terrible drop in consumer confidence sent the market on huge downward spiral. This raised fears of rising oil demand destruction and left traders to wonder what could governments do to stop the move and all was bleak as traders sold just about everything and went home early.


Yet good news today out of Europe and the fact that yesterday's selling was more than likely overdone is bringing the market back. The euro is a major reason why oil prices go up or down and it was under pressure in recent days as the market feared a liquidity squeeze in Europe due to the thought that the European Central Bank was going to have to lend banks more money. But it appears the banks took less money than thought. The ECB loaned banks 131.9 billion Euros (($161.4 billion) at its 3 month lending auction which was less than expecting giving a boost to the Euro and a boost in the price of oil.....Read the entire article.

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Crude Oil Rises, Snapping Two Days of Declines as Dollar Weakens

Crude oil headed for a monthly increase, before a report forecast to show crude inventories declined in the U.S., the world’s largest energy user. Hurricane Alex has halted about 25 percent of crude production in the Gulf of Mexico and 9 percent of natural-gas output, the U.S. government said. U.S. crude stockpiles probably dropped 1 million barrels in the week ended June 25 from 365.1 million the prior week, according to a Bloomberg News survey before today’s Energy Department report. Crude was still heading for its first quarterly decline since 2008.

“Today’s Energy Department data may help prices,” said Hannes Loacker, an analyst at Raiffeisen Zentralbank Oesterreich in Vienna. “While the supply picture does not support crude in the short term, demand is becoming a bit better. Much depends on risk aversion, so if equity markets recover, crude will go up.” Oil for August delivery traded for $75.96 a barrel, 2 cents higher on the New York Mercantile Exchange as of 1:35 p.m. London time. Brent crude for August delivery was up 2 cents at $75.46 a barrel on the ICE Futures Europe exchange in London.

Crude has lost 9.3 percent in New York since the end of March and 4.3 percent this year. The commodity pared earlier gains of as much as 1.2 percent after data from ADP Employer Services showed the U.S. added fewer jobs than economists estimated in June. The contract has advanced 2.8 percent in June. The Dollar Index, which measures the U.S. currency against those of six major trading partners, fell for the first time in three days, losing 0.3 percent on concern economic growth may falter, stoking demand for commodities as an alternative investment.....Read the entire article.

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Crude Oil and Natural Gas Pivot, Resistance and Support Numbers For Wednesday Morning

Crude oil was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of Tuesday's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

Closes below last Wednesday's low crossing at 75.17 would confirm that a short term top has been posted while opening the door for a larger degree decline into early July. If August renews the rally off May's low, the 62% retracement level of May's decline crossing at 82.67 is the next upside target.

First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 79.38
Second resistance is last Monday's high crossing at 79.94

Crude oil's pivot point for Wednesday is 74.66

First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 75.21
Second support is last Wednesday's low crossing at 75.17

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Natural gas was lower overnight as it extends this week's decline. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If August extends this week's decline, the reaction low crossing at 4.285 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.865 would temper the near term bearish outlook in the market.

First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 4.829
Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.865

Wednesday's pivot point for natural gas is 4.610

First support is the overnight low crossing at 4.480
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 4.285

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Tuesday, June 29, 2010

Here is a FREE Trend Analysis For Crude Oil and ETF USO

Where is crude oil and the crude oil ETF, USO headed? Our Smart Scan Chart Analysis is showing some near term rallying power. However, this market remains in the confines of a longer-term downtrend Downtrend with tight money management stops. Based on a pre-defined weighted trend formula for chart analysis, USO scored -75 on a scale from -100 (strong downtrend) to +100 (strong uptrend):




-10.....Last Hour Close Below 5 hour Moving Average
-15.....New 3 Day Low on Tuesday
-20.....Last Price Below 20 Day Moving Average
+25.....New 3 Week High, Week Ending June 26th
-30.....New 3 Month Low in May
-75.....Total Score

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Crude Oil Closes Lower, Below the Key 20 Day Moving Average

Crude oil closed lower on Tuesday and below the 20 day moving average crossing at 76.40. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. Closes below last week's low crossing at 75.17 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. If August renews the rally off May's low, the 62% retracement level of last month's decline crossing at 81.13 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 79.38. Second resistance is last Monday's high crossing at 79.94. First support is today's low crossing at 75.21. Second support is last Wednesday's low crossing at 75.17.

Natural gas closed sharply lower on Tuesday as it extends this month's decline. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible near term. Today's close below last Tuesday's low crossing at 4.727 confirms that a short term top has been posted. If August extends this week's decline, the reaction low crossing at 4.285 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10 day moving average crossing at 4.884 would temper the near term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.865. Second resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 4.884. First support is today's low crossing at 4.525. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 4.285.

The U.S. Dollar closed higher on Tuesday as it consolidates around the 25% retracement level of the November-June rally crossing at 85.71. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral hinting that a short term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 86.97 would confirm that a short term low has been posted. If September renews this month's decline, the 38% retracement level of the November-June rally crossing at 83.83 is the next downside target. First resistance is last Wednesday's high crossing at 86.71. Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 86.97. First support is last Monday's low crossing at 85.36. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the November-June rally crossing at 83.83.

Gold closed higher due to short covering on Tuesday but remains below the 10 day moving average crossing at 1243.50. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral hinting that a short term top might be in or is near. Closes below last Thursday's low crossing at 1225.20 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. If August renews this year's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will now be hard to project. First resistance is last Monday's high crossing at 1266.50. First support is today's low crossing at 1227.60. Second support is last Thursday's low crossing at 1225.20.

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Phil Flynn: Is BP Too Big To Fail?

Get ready for the latest BP stress test and a new BP thing to worry about. Reuter’s reports that the U.S. Federal Reserve's New York branch has been investigating the exposure of major financial firms to BP to make sure that if BP can't meet the costs of its spill in the Gulf of Mexico, it won't put Wall Street or the world's financial system at risk. Reuters says that the New York fed, after two weeks of reviewing documents and asking banks about their BP exposure, found no systemic risk, and it hasn't asked firms to alter their credit relationships with BP, the sources said. The New York fed and BP officials declined to comment. Banks that trade with BP wouldn't comment publicly. You are entering a new dimension.

The dimension not only of sight and sound but of the mind and imagination, you are entering land and borrowing and illusion of cutting deficits. Beware you have entered the Euro Zone. The oil market seemed to have one eye on the storm had another eye on the Euro. The Euro really saw some pressure during the session as uncertainty about EU member nations ability to pay back debt became an issue. Dow Jones said the euro fell broadly Monday as worries mounted about financial system strains ahead of the expiry of a large scale European Central Bank lending facility later investors fear a liquidity shortfall. The euro fell to a fresh all time low against the Swiss franc and its worst level since November2008 versus the U.K. pound. It's clear now that.....Read the entire article.


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New Video: Does This One Chart Line Spell Doom for the Markets?

Make no mistake about it, last week was a very important week for the stock market. Looking on the weekly equity charts, you will see one of the most powerful Japanese candlestick lines. This one line on the chart indicates that there could be some major problems ahead for the stock market.

In our new video we explain what this line is and how it can play out in the short and longer term time frames. As always our videos are free to watch and there is no need for registration. We would really like to get your feedback on this powerful formation and what you see for the markets ahead.

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Crude Oil Trend Turns in The Bears Favor...Here's Tuesday's Numbers

Crude oil was lower as it extends Monday's decline and is challenging key support marked by the 20 day moving average crossing at 76.44. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

Closes below last Wednesday's low crossing at 75.17 would confirm that a short term top has been posted while opening the door for a larger degree decline into early July. If August renews the rally off May's low, the 62% retracement level of May's decline crossing at 82.67 is the next upside target.

First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 79.38
Second resistance is last Monday's high crossing at 79.94

Crude oil's pivot point for Tuesday is 78.45

First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 76.44
Second support is last Wednesday's low crossing at 75.17

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Natural gas was lower overnight and is breaking out to the downside of last week's trading range. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

Closes below last Tuesday's low crossing at 4.727 would confirm that a short term top has been posted and would open the door for a larger degree decline near term. Closes above the 10 day moving average crossing at 4.900 would temper the near term bearish outlook in the market.

First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.873
Second resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 4.900

Tuesday's pivot point for natural gas is 4.781

First support is the overnight low crossing at 4.700
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 4.687

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Crude Falls as Chinese Growth Is Seen Slowing, Storm Avoids Gulf Platforms

Crude oil fell the most in more than three weeks amid concern that China’s economy is growing at a slower pace than estimated and forecasts that a tropical storm in the Gulf of Mexico will miss oil producing areas. Oil lost as much as 3.4 percent after the Conference Board corrected its April gauge for the outlook on China’s economy, saying it rose by the smallest amount since November. Tropical Storm Alex make landfall in Mexico July 1 as a hurricane, according to the U.S. National Hurricane Center in Miami.

“It’s been our thesis that China was going to slow and oil was overpriced as a result,” said Addison Armstrong, director of market research at Tradition Energy, a Stamford, Connecticut based procurement adviser. “In the current forecast, it appears the storm is a non event in terms of damage to the Gulf of Mexico.”

Oil for August delivery fell $2.47, or 3.2 percent, to $75.78 a barrel at 9:07 a.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Earlier, crude touched $75.63 a barrel in the biggest one day drop since June 4. It has dropped 4.5 percent this year and 9.5 percent this quarter. Oil also declined as equity markets dropped and the dollar strengthened against the euro, curbing the appeal of commodities as an alternative investment.

Reporter Margot Habiby can be reached at mhabiby@bloomberg.net.


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Monday, June 28, 2010

Crude Oil Bears Take Monday, But are Signals Turning Neutral to Bullish?

Crude oil closed lower due to profit taking on Monday as it consolidated some of last Friday's rally. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If August renews the rally off May's low, the 62% retracement level of last month's decline crossing at 81.13 is the next upside target. Closes below last week's low crossing at 75.17 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 79.38. Second resistance is last Monday's high crossing at 79.94. First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 76.30. Second support is last Wednesday's low crossing at 75.17.

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Natural gas closed lower on Monday as it extended this month's decline. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible near term. Closes below last Tuesday's low crossing at 4.727 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. Closes above the 10 day moving average crossing at 4.952 would temper the near term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 4.952. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 5.249. First support is last Tuesday's low crossing at 4.727. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 4.687.

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The U.S. Dollar closed higher on Monday as it consolidates around the 25% retracement level of the November-June rally crossing at 85.71. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bearish hinting that additional weakness is possible near term. If September renews this month's decline, the 38% retracement level of the November-June rally crossing at 83.83 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 87.01 would confirm that a short term low has been posted. First resistance is last Wednesday's high crossing at 86.71. Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 87.01. First support is last Monday's low crossing at 85.36. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the November-June rally crossing at 83.83.

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Gold posted a key reversal down due to profit taking on Monday and the low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. August gold pulled back from a fresh record high today after the rally lost momentum and a stronger dollar pressured the market. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging and are turning neutral hinting that a short term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 1235.00 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. If August renews this year's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will now be hard to project. First resistance is last Monday's high crossing at 1266.50. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1235.00. Second support is last Thursday's low crossing at 1225.20.

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Phil Flynn: Dodge A Bullet

Tropical storm Alex most likely won’t be much of a problem for BP as its track is far south of the spill zone. Now let’s just hope that another storm does not develop. A second tropical wave dissipated and that is good news as it appears that BP may have dodged a bullet and can continue to collect oil and make progress on moving forward with the relief well.

The Wall Street Journal reports that BP said it recovered 22,750 barrels of oil on Saturday yet at the same time they do not expect to complete the relief well until early August. The question is will it work. The Financial Times says that the operation has no precedent at the depth that BP is operating, but a review of similar efforts in shallower waters and the opinion of geologists and petroleum engineers point to a discomforting possibility: the relief well might not work on the first try, leaving open the risk of delays. Delays that could turn out to be worst as hot air in the Atlantic could produce more storms.

Speaking of hot air, the G-20 met over the weekend and the world’s 20 most wealthy nations and their commitment to debt reduction and banking reform may have more influence over oil than the weather. The G-20 said that they plan to follow through on fiscal stimulus and communicating “growth friendly” fiscal consolidation plans for advanced countries that will be implemented going forward. The G-20 says that sound fiscal finances are essential to sustain recovery, provide flexibility to respond to new shocks, ensure the capacity to meet the challenges of aging populations, and avoid leaving future generations with a legacy of deficits and debt. The path of adjustment must be carefully calibrated to sustain the recovery in private demand.

They will commit to reducing debt. The G-20 said that there is a risk that synchronized fiscal adjustment across several major economies could adversely impact the recovery. There is also a risk that the failure to implement consolidation where necessary would undermine confidence and hamper growth. Reflecting this balance, advanced economies have committed to fiscal plans that will at least halve deficits by 2013 and stabilize or reduce government debt-to-GDP ratios by 2016. For the crude oil market the impact from the G-20 is apparent.

It will have as much impact on oil as it does on the euro and the dollar. Oil broke when the dollar broke and the euro rallied leaving it clear today where oil will take its marching orders from. Watch the currencies for the oil direction. And since the currency action will probably be light, it should be a good day to buy the breaks and sell the rallies.

Phil can be reached @ pflynn@pfgbest.com and make sure to catch him every day on the Fox Business Network

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Crude Oil and Natural Gas Commentary For Monday Morning

Crude oil was lower due to profit taking overnight as it consolidates some of last Friday's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

Closes below last Wednesday's low crossing at 75.17 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. If August renews the rally off May's low, the 62% retracement level of May's decline crossing at 82.67 is the next upside target.

First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 79.38
Second resistance is last Monday's high crossing at 79.94

Crude oil pivot point for Monday is 77.98

First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 76.30
Second support is last Wednesday's low crossing at 75.17

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Natural gas was lower overnight as it extends last week's trading range. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

Closes below last Tuesday's low crossing at 4.727 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted and would open the door for a larger degree decline near term. Closes above the 10 day moving average crossing at 4.963 would temper the near term bearish outlook in the market.

First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 4.963
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 5.249

Monday's pivot point for natural gas is 4.875

First support is last Tuesday's low crossing at 4.727
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 4.687

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Sunday, June 27, 2010

Caribbean Storms Strengthen, May Head for Oil Spill

Tropical Storm Alex, the first named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season, moved across Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula today on a track that would keep it far west and south of the largest oil spill in U.S. history. The storm was forecast to enter the Gulf of Mexico later today and regain whatever strength it lost while over land. The U.S. National Hurricane Center storm track predicts Alex will then curve west toward Mexico City rather than north and east into the worst of the BP Plc oil spill.

“Odds are it is not an issue for the cleanup,” Tom Kines, a meteorologist with AccuWeather Inc., said in a telephone interview today. He said the storm is likely to intensify to a Category 1 hurricane on the five step Saffir-Simpson scale before making its final landfall near Tampico on June 30. Alex, with sustained winds of 40 miles (65 kilometers) per hour, was about 105 miles west of Chetumal and moving west northwest at 12 mph, according to the 8 a.m. advisory from the Miami based center. A tropical storm warning for the coast of Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula’s east coast likely will be discontinued today, it said.

“Some weakening is expected while over land and Alex could become a tropical depression,” the advisory said. The storm is expected to regain strength when it emerges over the southern Gulf of Mexico this afternoon.....Read the entire article.

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Saturday, June 26, 2010

Crude Oil Weekly Technical Outlook For Saturday June 26th

Crude oil's retreat was shallow and was contained 75.17. Subsequent rally indicates that rise from 64.23 is not over yet and has resumed. Initial bias remains on the upside and further rise should be seen to 80.53 next. Break will target a retest on 87.15 high. On the downside, though, break of 75.17 will argue that rebound from 64.23 is completed and will turn bias back to the downside for 69.51 support first.

In the bigger picture, the stronger than expected rebound from 64.24 dampened our bearish view and we'll stay neutral first. But still, rise from 64.24 looks corrective in nature and favors another fall after completion. A break of 69.51 support will indicate that rebound from 64.24 is finished and revive the bearish case. That is, whole medium term rise from 33.2 is finished at 87.15, just ahead of 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 90.24. In such case, we'd see another fall to 50% retracement of 33.2 to 87.15 at 60.18 at least.

In the long term picture, current development suggests that rebound from 33.2 is finished at 87.15, inside 76.77/90.24 fibo resistance zone as expected. Our view is that fall fro 87.15 would develop into the third falling leg of the whole correction from 147.27 and hence, we'd anticipate an eventual break of 33.2 low in the long term as such correction extends.....Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart.

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Friday, June 25, 2010

New Video: Do You Know About Market Divergences?

In the market there are two types of market divergences that can occur....a bullish divergence and a bearish divergence. Both of these divergences are important and you need to know how they work and how you can benefit from this knowledge.

In this short educational trading video, we will show you the tools we use to spot market divergences. We will be using the Relative Strength Indicator (RSI) and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence indicator (MACD) which was developed by our friend Gerald Appel.

As always our videos are free to watch and there are no registration requirements. Please feel free to leave a comment on this or any of our other videos.


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Phil Flynn: Pricing In Mediocrity

Global oil markets are finding it hard to get excited living in this new post Federal Reserve World. The passion left the market place and sunk in to a kind of what might be described as a stag deflation mode. All across the yield curve, from the short end to the long, yields are sinking to near record lows. While cheap money is keeping our economy meandering along, it is not the type of drive that seems to be the type of growth that will translate into strong energy demand. What’s more, even stories that are normally bullish for oil and the products are not giving the market the support you would expect.

For example the Chinese allowed their currency, the yuan renimbi, to rise to what is called the highest level in the modern era. The Wall Street Journal reported that on the over the counter market, the dollar was at CNY6.7900 around 0930 GMT, down from Thursday's close of CNY6.7997. It traded between CNY6.7856 and NY6.7977. The low end of the range was below the previous modern-era intraday low of NY6.7958, set Monday. The yuan is up 0.53% this week. Yet not even what many thought would be a bullish move for oil has given us much play. In fact oil lost ground on the announcement.Now some say that is because the move by the Chinese was only a.....Read the entire article.

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Crude Oil Advances on Concern Storm May Disrupt Gulf of Mexico Production

Crude oil rose the most in two weeks in New York on concern the first tropical storm of the hurricane season may form and disrupt production in the Gulf of Mexico. The gain accelerated as the dollar weakened against the euro. Oil climbed as much as 3.4 percent after the National Hurricane Center said that a low pressure area located in the Caribbean off Honduras and Grand Cayman has a 70 percent chance of developing into a tropical cyclone this weekend and may head into the Gulf.

“We always see knee jerk reactions when storms enter the Gulf, and there are concerns that storms will damage either offshore or onshore infrastructure,” said Addison Armstrong, director of market research at Tradition Energy in Stamford, Connecticut. Crude for August delivery gained $2.12, or 2.8 percent, to $78.63 a barrel at 1:14 p.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the biggest percentage gain since June 9. Oil rose as high as $79.11. The contract has increased 0.5 percent this week.

The euro was up 0.2 percent at $1.2355 at 1:17 p.m., after falling as low as 1.2254. A lower U.S. currency versus the euro bolsters the appeal of crude as an alternative investment. “The dollar is weakening and it seemed to give crude a little boost,” said Phil Flynn, vice president of research at PFGBest in Chicago. The low pressure area is likely to become a tropical depression before it reaches the Yucatan Peninsula, and the system may become a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours, the hurricane center said at 8 a.m. Miami time today.

About 31 percent, or 1.69 million barrels a day, of U.S. oil production comes from federal waters in the Gulf of Mexico, according to the Energy Department.....Read the entire article.

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Crude Oil Bears Take a Clear Near Term Advantage

Crude oil was slightly lower overnight as it extends this week's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

Closes below Wednesday's low crossing at 75.17 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. If August renews the rally off May's low, the 62% retracement level of May's decline crossing at 82.67 is the next upside target.

First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 77.48
Second resistance is Monday's high crossing at 79.94

Crude oil pivot point for Friday is 76.13

First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 76.03
Second support is Wednesday's low crossing at 75.17

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Natural gas was lower overnight and trading below the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.779. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

Closes below Tuesday's low crossing at 4.756 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted and would open the door for a larger degree decline near term. Closes above the 10 day moving average crossing at 4.926 would temper the near term bearish outlook in the market.

First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 4.926

Friday's pivot point for natural gas is 4.767

Second resistance is last Wednesday's high crossing at 5.196
First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 4.756
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 4.628

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Where is Crude Oil and Gold Headed on Friday?

CNBC's Sharon Epperson discusses the day's activity in the commodities markets, and looks ahead to where oil and gold are likely headed tomorrow.




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Thursday, June 24, 2010

Crude Oil Extends Decline Below the 10 Day Moving Average

Crude oil closed lower on Thursday as it extends yesterday's decline below the 10 day moving average crossing at 77.36. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 75.98 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. If August renews the rally off May's low, the 62% retracement level of last month's decline crossing at 81.13 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 77.37. Second resistance is Monday's high crossing at 78.92. First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 75.98. Second support is Wednesday's low crossing at 75.17.

Natural gas closed lower on Thursday as it extended this week's decline. The mid range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible near term. Closes below Tuesday's low crossing at 4.691 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. Closes above the 10 day moving average crossing at 4.930 would temper the near term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 4.930. Second resistance is last Wednesday's high crossing at 5.196. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 4.691. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 4.628.

The U.S. Dollar closed lower on Thursday and the mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish hinting that a short term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 87.13 would confirm that a short term low has been posted. If September renews this month's decline, the 38% retracement level of the November-June rally crossing at 83.83 is the next downside target. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 86.71. Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 87.13. First support is Monday's low crossing at 85.36. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the November-June rally crossing at 83.83.

Gold closed higher due to short covering on Thursday as it consolidated some of this week's decline. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish hinting that a short term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 1231.50 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. If August renews this year's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will now be hard to project. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 1266.50. First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1231.50. Second support is Thursday's low crossing at 1225.20.

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Sure, we are Trading Oil....But Forex Should not be Foreign to You....Watch New Video

It's the biggest market in the world and is traded 24 hours a day, 6 days a week, and therefore one that is impossible to ignore. I'm speaking, of course, about the forex market.

The question is, is this the tail that's wagging the dog? Meaning, is the forex market, mainly the euro, dictating the trend in American and European equity markets.

The answer is yes, for the moment it is. Now, if you're not familiar with the forex markets and the euro, you should look at the ETF FXE, the spot euro, and also the euro futures market at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), as they are all tradable.

In today's short video we show you exactly how we think this currency will play out in the future. And as always, our videos are free to watch and there is no need for registration. Please leave us a comment on your thoughts on this video and the current market.


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Dan Dicker: Avoid Oil Drillers

Dan Dicker, senior contributor for The Street .Com, says despite the fact that he's buying some energy stocks he's avoiding oil drillers for now. Follow Dan on Twitter at Dan Dicker.



Just click here for your FREE trend analysis of crude oil ETF USO

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Crude Oil Bears Appear to Have The Near Term Advantage

Crude oil was slightly lower overnight as it extends this week's decline. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bearish hinting that a short term top might be in or is near.

Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 75.97 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. If August renews the rally off May's low, the 62% retracement level of May's decline crossing at 82.67 is the next upside target.

First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 79.94
Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of May's decline crossing at 82.67

Thursday's pivot for crude oil is 76.45

First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 75.97
Second support is Wednesday's low crossing at 75.17

Just click here for your FREE trend analysis of crude oil ETF USO

Natural gas was slightly lower overnight as it consolidates below the 10 day moving average crossing at 4.933. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

Closes below Tuesday's low crossing at 4.756 would confirm that a short term top has been posted while opening the door for a larger degree decline near term. Closes above the 10 day moving average crossing at 4.933 would temper the near term bearish outlook in the market.

First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 4.932
Second resistance is last Wednesday's high crossing at 5.196

Natural gas pivot point for Thursday is 4.809

First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.758
Second support is Tuesday's low crossing at 4.756

Just click here for your FREE trend analysis of natural gas ETF UNG

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Where is Crude Oil and Gold Headed on Thursday?

CNBC's Sharon Epperson discusses the day's activity in the commodities markets, and looks at where oil and gold are likely headed tomorrow.






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Wednesday, June 23, 2010

Sharp Drop in New Home Sales Pushes Oil, Gold and U.S. Dollar Lower

Crude oil closed lower on Wednesday due to slow oil sales and a sharp decline in new home sales. Today's close below the 10 day moving average crossing at 77.40 signaling that a short term top is in or is near. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 75.79 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. If August renews the rally off May's low, the 62% retracement level of last month's decline crossing at 81.13 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 78.92. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of last month's decline crossing at 81.13. First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 75.79. Second support is today's low crossing at 75.17.

Natural gas closed higher due to short covering on Wednesday as it consolidated some of this week's decline but remains below the 10 day moving average crossing at 4.917. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible near term. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.694 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. If July renews the rally off May's low, the 62% retracement level of the November-May decline crossing at 5.429 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Wednesday's high crossing at 5.196. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the November-May decline crossing at 5.429. First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.691. Second support is today's low crossing at 4.691.

The U.S. Dollar closed lower on Wednesday ending a two day correction off Monday's low. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. However, stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning bullish hinting that a short term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 87.16 would confirm that a short term low has been posted. If September renews this month's decline, the 38% retracement level of the November-June rally crossing at 83.83 is the next downside target. First resistance is today's high crossing at 86.71. Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 87.16. First support is Monday's low crossing at 85.36. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the November-June rally crossing at 83.83.

Gold closed lower on Wednesday following the release of today's bearish new home sales data. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging and are turning bearish hinting that a short term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 1230.10 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. If August renews this year's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will now be hard to project. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 1266.50. First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1230.10. Second support is today's low crossing at 1225.20.

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Phil Flynn: Moratorium Show Down!

Well I did call Obama the Great Misleader and now I have a judge that agrees with me. Federal Judge Martin L.C. Feldman issued an injunction against the Obama administration lifting its drilling moratorium saying the government never justified the ban and appeared to mislead the public. Oil prices fell back across the curve falling 15-30 cents a barrel right after the announcement. Judge Martin L.C. Feldman as reported by the Washington Times issued an injunction, saying that the moratorium on drilling will hurt drilling-rig operators and suppliers and that the government has not proved an outright ban is needed, rather than a more limited moratorium.

He also said the Interior Department also misstated the opinion of the experts it consulted. (Misstated?)In fact the truth is that those experts from the National Academy of Engineering said they don't support the blanket ban. "Much to the government's discomfort and this Court's uneasiness, the summary also states, 'the recommendations contained in this report have been peer-reviewed by seven experts identified by the National Academy of Engineering.' As the plaintiffs, and the experts themselves, pointedly observe, this statement was misleading," Judge Feldman said in his 22 page ruling. It is clear that the Obama administration is playing fast and loose with the facts in an effort to placate its angry.....Read the entire article.

New Video: How To Use Fibonacci Retracements

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New Video: Why Markets Reverse...Blame it on Fibonacci!

There are times when markets reverse for no apparent reason and seem to defy any news that would support the direction of the trend. We call the this occasional event the "Fibonacci factor"and this occurs when markets reach certain retracement levels and often reverse direction from their
previous trend.

In this new short video we outline this phenomenon on the S&P500 and will also be covering it when our new educational trading video debuts this Friday, which will be of course, "Fibonacci Friday".

As always there is no charge and no need to register. Enjoy today's video and please let us know what you think by leaving a comment.

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Crude Oil and Natural Gas Market Commentary For Wednesday Morning

Crude oil was lower due to profit taking overnight as it consolidates some of this month's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish hinting that a short term top might be in or is near.

Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 75.85 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. If August extends the rally off May's low, the 62% retracement level of May's decline crossing at 82.67 is the next upside target.

First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 79.94
Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of May's decline crossing at 82.67

Wednesday's pivot point for crude oil is 78.03

First support is the overnight low crossing at 77.04
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 75.85

Just click here for your FREE trend analysis of crude oil ETF USO

Natural gas was slightly higher due to light short covering overnight as it consolidates some of this week's decline but remains below the 10 day moving average crossing at 4.915. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.726 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. If July renews this month's rally, the 62% retracement level of the November-May decline crossing at 5.429 is the next upside target.

First resistance is last Wednesday's high crossing at 5.196
Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the November-May decline crossing at 5.429

Wednesday's pivot point for natural gas is 4.778

First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.726
Second support is Tuesday's low crossing at 4.756

Just click here for your FREE trend analysis of natural gas ETF UNG


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Tuesday, June 22, 2010

Crude Oil Closes Lower, Bulls Maintain Slight Advantage

Crude oil closed lower due to profit taking on Tuesday as it consolidated some of the rally off May's low. The mid range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If July extends the rally off May's low, the 62% retracement level of last month's decline crossing at 81.13 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 74.30 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 78.92. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of last month's decline crossing at 81.13. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 76.23. Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 74.30.

Natural gas closed lower on Tuesday as it extended Monday's decline below the 10 day moving average crossing at 4.908 signaling that a short term top is in or is near. The mid range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bearish hinting that a short top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.694 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. If July renews the rally off May's low, the 62% retracement level of the November-May decline crossing at 5.429 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Wednesday's high crossing at 5.196. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the November-May decline crossing at 5.429. First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.691. Second support is today's low crossing at 4.691.

The U.S. Dollar closed higher due to short covering on Tuesday as it consolidates some of this month's decline. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning bullish hinting that a short term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 87.24 would confirm that a short term low has been posted. If September renews this month's decline, the 38% retracement level of the November-June rally crossing at 83.83 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 86.81. Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 87.24. First support is Monday's low crossing at 85.36. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the November-June rally crossing at 83.83.

Gold closed lower on Tuesday confirming Monday's key reversal down. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging and are turning neutral hinting that a short term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 1228.30 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. If August extends this year's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will now be hard to project. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 1266.50. First support is Monday's low crossing at 1231.60. Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1228.30.

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Phil Flynn: The Oil Market Re-Evaluates China’s Re-Valuation

The oil market re-evaluates China’s re-valuation. Perhaps the yuan re-valuation was not as bullish as you thought. We warned yesterday not to get complacently bullish on the yuan re-valuation and sure enough after the commodities markets popped, they then dropped. In fact it is very possible that this yuan re-velation non event may change the short term trend direction risk in commodities.

Mainly I am talking about gold and oil but other commodities that have speculated for months on the Chinese government allowing their currency to “float” may have already bought the rumor and sold the fact. Besides, despite what you might think, this unclear valuation in this environment may not be as bullish for demand as some might think. Despite the increase in Chinese purchasing power the main driver of their economy is still exports. Higher yuan means fewer exports.

And they have wage pressure at home and that has the Chinese government desperately trying to adjust their market by making workers more satisfied with the yuan they've got. Yet this move could drive inflation at home as Chinese consumers start to look for more goods and property perhaps leading to imbalances in the overall Chinese economy.

For oil the idea that this move would put pressure on the dollar and raise all petroleum prices was thwarted by how demand might respond to higher energy prices. Already demand for oil is struggling. We know consumers are price sensitive and we know that oil is sensitive to the dollar.

Phil can be reached at pflynn@pfgbest.com Also make sure to catch him on the the Fox Business Network every day!


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Deepwater Drilling Ban Lifted by New Orleans Federal Judge

A New Orleans federal judge lifted the six-month moratorium on deepwater drilling imposed by President Barack Obama following the largest oil spill in U.S. history. Drilling services shares jumped on the news.

Obama temporarily halted all drilling in waters deeper than 500 feet on May 27 to give a presidential commission time to study improvements in the safety of offshore operations. More than a dozen Louisiana offshore service and supply companies sued U.S. regulators to lift the ban. The U.S. said it will appeal the decision.

U.S. District Judge Martin Feldman today granted a preliminary injunction, halting the moratorium. He also “immediately prohibited” the U.S. from enforcing the ban. Government lawyers told Feldman that ban was based on findings in a U.S. report following the sinking of the Deepwater Horizon rig off the Louisiana coast in April.

“The court is unable to divine or fathom a relationship between the findings and the immense scope of the moratorium,” Feldman said in his 22-page decision. “The blanket moratorium, with no parameters, seems to assume that because one rig failed and although no one yet fully knows why, all companies and rigs drilling new wells over 500 feet also universally present an imminent danger”.....Read the entire article.


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Crude Oil Slides on Overnight Profit Taking

Crude oil was lower due to profit taking overnight as it consolidates some of this month's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If July extends the rally off May's low, the 62% retracement level of May's decline crossing at 81.13 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 74.27 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted.

First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 78.92
Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of May's decline crossing at 81.13

Tuesday's pivot point for crude oil is 78.76
First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 76.18
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 74.27

The "Super Cycle" in Gold and How It Will Affect Your Pocketbook in 2010

Natural gas was lower overnight as it extends Monday's decline below the 10 day moving average crossing at 4.914. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bearish signaling that a short term top is in or is near.

Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.698 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. If July extends this month's rally, the 62% retracement level of the November-May decline crossing at 5.429 is the next upside target.

First resistance is last Wednesday's high crossing at 5.196
Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the November-May decline crossing at 5.429

Tuesday's pivot point for natural gas is 4.960

First support is Monday's low crossing at 4.826
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.698


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Monday, June 21, 2010

Where is Crude Oil and Gold Headed on Tuesday?

CNBC's Sharon Epperson discusses the day's activity in the commodities markets, and looks ahead to where oil & gold are likely headed tomorrow.




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New Video: How To Use Fibonacci Retracements

We have had a number of requests to do a video on Fibonacci retracements and how they can be used in trading.

We put together this five minute lesson on Fibonacci trading and how we use this important tool to determine turning points in the market. Like all tools, it has its flaws and should be used with other complementary tools like our "Trade Triangle" technology.

As always, our videos are free to watch and there are no registration requirements. We hope you have the time to comment and share if this video helped you understand this important trading tool, or how you're already using it.

We hope you enjoy this brief lesson and it helps you understand how to use this important tool.


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Crude Oil Extends Rally Off May's Low, Remains Overbought

Crude oil closed higher on Monday as it extends the rally off May's low. Profit taking tempered early session gains and the mid range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If July extends the rally off May's low, the 62% retracement level of last month's decline crossing at 81.13 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 73.95 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 78.92. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of last month's decline crossing at 81.13. First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 75.70. Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 73.95.

Natural gas closed lower due to profit taking on Monday and below the 10 day moving average crossing at 4.913 signaling that a short term top is in or is near. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish hinting that a short top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.660 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. If July extends the rally off May's low, the 62% retracement level of the November-May decline crossing at 5.429 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Wednesday's high crossing at 5.196. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the November-May decline crossing at 5.429. First support is today's low crossing at 4.826. Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.660.

The U.S. Dollar closed higher due to short covering on Monday as it consolidates some of this month's decline. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday as September might extend today's bounce off the 25% retracement level of the November-June rally crossing at 85.71. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning neutral to bullish hinting that a short term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 87.28 would confirm that a short term low has been posted. If September extends this month's decline, the 38% retracement level of the November-June rally crossing at 83.83 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 87.06. Second resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 87.06. First support is today's low crossing at 85.36. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the November-June rally crossing at 83.83.

Gold posted a key reversal down due to strength in equities and the US Dollar on Monday but not before posting a new all time high. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If August extends this year's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will now be hard to project. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 1225.80 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 1266.50. First support is today's low crossing at 1231.60. Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1225.80.



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Phil Flynn: The Dollar Drops While China Rocks

The dollar drops while China rocks. China has either given in to pressure or has realized that its peg to the dollar may soon become counterproductive.China shook the global markets by announcing that they were going to allow their currency to be more flexible. As expected, oil soared on the news because the move will make oil cheaper in China and may inspire more Chinese buying of more commodities! Yet will this be for the long haul as a stronger yuan may slow exports by making Chinese goods more expensive overseas. For now though it is a commodity buying spree as the markets react to what most people feel will be the most obvious result.

The Wall Street Journal says that China’s central bank's statement Saturday came as a surprise and effectively marked the end of currency's de-facto peg to the U.S. dollar. It has been seen as a clear signal that China will let the yuan resume a gradual rise against the U.S. dollar after nearly two years of being effectively pegged around CNY6.83 to the U.S. dollar. Property developers were among the biggest gainers, as a stronger yuan would attract fund inflows and strengthen demand for real estate in China.....Read the entire article.

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Crude Oil and Natural Gas Numbers For Monday Morning

Crude oil was higher overnight as it extends this month's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If July extends the rally off May's low, the 62% retracement level of May's decline crossing at 81.13 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 73.98 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted.

First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 78.87
Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of May's decline crossing at 81.13

Crude oil pivot point for Monday is 76.73

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 75.76
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 73.98

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Natural gas was higher overnight as it consolidates below the 50% retracement level of the November-May decline crossing at 5.151. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If July extends this month's rally, the 62% retracement level of the November-May decline crossing at 5.429 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.670 would confirm that a short term top has been posted.

First resistance is last Wednesday's high crossing at 5.196
Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the November-May decline crossing at 5.429

Natural gas pivot point for Monday morning is 5.058

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 4.933
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.670

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