Thursday, January 20, 2011
Crude Oil Really is Our New World Currency
With pipelines plugged and European debt crisis slinking their way out of the news all eyes are back to inventory levels and the Euro/Dollar trade. Enjoy the temporary return of the quiet, peaceful, easy trade. Our future lies in Chinese GDP numbers, inflation and currency manipulation news. On that subject, China's National Bureau of Statistics Thursday also reported that fourth quarter gross domestic product grew 9.8% from a year earlier, above economists' expectations for a 9.2% expansion. So much for the poor guys and their attempt at gradually imposing lending restrictions to prevent runaway inflation.
With looming inventory numbers and the dollar falling along side crude oil overnight, let's take a run at it today using these pivot, support and resistance numbers.....
Natural gas was slightly higher overnight as it extends the short covering rebound off last week's low. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.414 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. If February renews the rally off December's low, the 50% retracement level of the June-October decline crossing at 4.876 is the next upside target. First resistance is this month's high crossing at 4.707. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the June-October decline crossing at 4.876. First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.414. Second support is December's low crossing at 3.985. Natural gas pivot point for Thursday morning is 4.517.
Gold was lower overnight signaling a possible end to a two day short covering bounce off Monday's low. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible. If February extends this month's decline, the reaction low crossing at 1331.10 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 1385.20 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1385.20. Second resistance is this month's high crossing at 1424.40. First support is the reaction low crossing at 1352.70. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 1331.10. Gold pivot point for Thursday morning is 1371.50.
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