Tuesday, April 12, 2011

Market Commentary For Tuesday Morning Crude Oil, Gold, Natural Gas, U.S. Dollar

Crude oil was lower during Mondays overnight session due to light profit taking as it consolidates some of the rally off March's low. However, stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning bearish hinting that a short term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 106.19 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. If May extends the rally off March's low, the 75% retracement level of the 2008-2009 decline crossing at 121.09 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 113.46. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2008-2009 decline crossing at 121.09. First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 108.71. Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 106.19. Crude oil pivot point for Tuesday morning trading is 110.69.

Natural gas was lower overnight as it consolidates some of Monday's short covering rally. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that a short term top might be in or is near. If May extends the aforementioned decline, the 87% retracement level of March's rally crossing at 3.899 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.253 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 4.206. Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.253. First support is Monday's low crossing at 3.990. Second support is the 87% retracement level of March's rally crossing at 3.899. Natural gas pivot point for Tuesday morning trading is 4.083.

Gold was lower due to profit taking overnight as it consolidates some of this year's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. Last week's breakout above the neckline of March's inverted head and shoulders pattern projects a potential upside target of 1514.90 later this spring. It will take closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 1436.10 to confirm that a top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 1478.00. Second resistance is the head and shoulders upside target of 1514.90. First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 1450.20. Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1436.10. Golds pivot point for Tuesday morning trading is 1468.80.

The U.S. Dollar was lower overnight and poised to extend this year's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening during the day session. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If June extends this year's decline, weekly support crossing at 74.21 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 76.00 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 76.00. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 76.87. First support is last Friday's low crossing at 75.06. Second support is weekly support crossing at 74.21.




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