Saturday, June 25, 2011

Crude Oil, Natural Gas and Gold Week Ending Market Commentary

Crude oil posted an inside day with a higher close on Friday as it consolidated some of this week's decline. The mid range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold, diverging and are turning neutral to bullish hinting that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 97.85 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. If August extends this month's decline, the 50% retracement level of the 2009-2011 rally crossing at 86.32 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 94.70. Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 97.85. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 89.69. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2009-2011 rally crossing at 86.32.

Natural gas closed higher due to short covering on Friday as it consolidated some of this month's decline. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If August extends the decline off this month's high, the 87% retracement level of the March-June rally crossing at 4.119 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.593 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 4.430. Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.593. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 4.186. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the March-June rally crossing at 4.119.

Gold closed sharply lower for the second day in a row on Friday as it extended yesterday's breakout below this year's uptrend line crossing near 1529.80. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging and are turning bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. Today's close below the reaction low crossing at 1511.40 confirms a top has been posted and trend change has taken place. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 1534.60 would temper the near term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 1529.80. Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1534.60. First support is today's low crossing at 1498.50. Second support is the 38% retracement level of this year's rally crossing at 1477.10.


Share

No comments:

ShareThis