Monday, July 18, 2011

Adam Hewison: I Was Thinking This Weekend….

From Crude Oil Trader contributor Adam Hewison.....

Well, Monday is here and we are no closer to solving the debt problem than we were last week. Europe is still a disaster and that’s been reflected in the bank stocks today.

I was thinking this weekend....If everybody moved out of Greece, what would happen to the debt and who would pay it? I know it sounds weird to say, but the reality is with the euro zone you do have the freedom to work in other countries.

The world has changed, yet the politicians still think it’s the same game. In the world of the Internet you can be based practically anywhere that’s advantageous to you. In an example like Greece, which is so far underwater it seems they are never going to be able to bail themselves out....Why not just walk away from the debt? One could stand to reason that most well educated Greeks have the mobility and the language power to move to other countries in the euro zone and work.

Today’s markets reflect what I was saying all last week in regards to the bank stocks which are under tremendous pressure today. BAC is down over 3% and other bank stocks don’t look much better.

Gold and silver moved dramatically high today with gold topping the $1,600 an ounce level before some profit taking came in to the market. Silver is up close to 3% as I write this, and is moving higher and faster than gold percentage wise. So let’s take a look at these markets in more detail and workout some target zones for gold and silver, as well as the banks.
Now, let’s go to the markets and see how we can protect and make your money grow.

S&P 500

Monthly Trade Triangles for Long-Term Trends = Positive
Weekly Trade Triangles for Intermediate Term Trends = Positive
Daily Trade Triangles for Short-Term Trends = Negative
Combined Strength of Trend Score = + 55

The 200 day moving average comes in at 1276 as does a long-term trend line from the lows set in March of 2009. That is the line in the sand for this market. We expect this level to be broken in the coming days and weeks.

SILVER

Monthly Trade Triangles for Long-Term Trends = Positive
Weekly Trade Triangles for Intermediate Term Trends = Positive
Daily Trade Triangles for Short-Term Trends = Positive
Combined Strength of Trend Score = + 100

Traders should be long this market as all of our Trade Triangles are in a positive mode indicating higher prices ahead. As we have been indicating, we are expecting this market to reach highs towards the latter part of Q3 and early Q4. Look for support for this market at 36.00. The upside target for silver based on the Fibonacci count of 61.8% is $42.98.

GOLD

Monthly Trade Triangles for Long-Term Trends = Positive
Weekly Trade Triangles for Intermediate Term Trends = Positive
Daily Trade Triangles for Short-Term Trends = Positive
Combined Strength of Trend Score = + 100

Traders who have been listening to my updates should be long gold. Short term traders should have taken the 52 week rule that we mentioned last Friday and have a trading unit on and have some nice profits in hand. We are looking for gold to move higher until the end of Q3 and possibly into Q4. Intermediate targets for gold are $1,642 and $1,650.

CRUDE OIL

Monthly Trade Triangles for Long-Term Trends = Negative
Weekly Trade Triangles for Intermediate Term Trends = Negative
Daily Trade Triangles for Short-Term Trends = Positive
Combined Strength of Trend Score = – 65
The -65 score indicates that this market remains in a trading range. At the present time, the crude oil market continues to have problems just over the $99 a barrel price point. Our Trade Triangle indicators both long and intermediate term remain negative for this market. Support comes in around $94 a barrel and resistance coming in just over $99. We are looking to buy this market later in the week, given the correct signals.

DOLLAR INDEX

Monthly Trade Triangles for Long-Term Trends = Positive
Weekly Trade Triangles for Intermediate Term Trends = Positive
Daily Trade Triangles for Short-Term Trends = Positive
Combined Strength of Trend Score = + 100

The Dollar Index has been trapped in a broad trading range for the past two months. The Dollar Index remains below its 200 day moving average. The longer term trend for the Dollar Index is positive based on our Trade Triangle technology. Resistance remains between 76.00 and 77.00. Support comes in today at 74.00.

REUTERS/JEFFERIES CRB COMMODITY INDEX

Monthly Trade Triangles for Long-Term Trends = Negative
Weekly Trade Triangles for Intermediate Term Trends = Positive
Daily Trade Triangles for Short-Term Trends = Negative
Combined Strength of Trend Score = – 55

The CRB index remains in a broad trading range. At the present time, our Trade Triangle technology is mixed for this index. Resistance is now at 350 and support looks to be at 340.


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