Tuesday, September 20, 2011

Crude Oil Market Commentary For Tuesday Sept. 20th

The crude oil market is presenting a mixed picture at the moment with our longer term monthly Trade Triangle negative and our intermediate term weekly Trade Triangle positive. This has created a trading range at the moment. The crude oil market remains in a sort of sideways motion, but with a bias toward testing the lower range of the Donchian trading channel. The Williams % R indicator is stuck in the middle, giving no real clue to direction.

Also pay attention to the MACD since it is beginning to lose momentum and could be rolling over to the downside if we have any more negative closes. We do not think that the crude oil market is ready to go higher, based on our long term monthly Trade Triangle which remains negative. The $90 a barrel resistance continues to stop this market on the upside. Look for crude oil to continue to move in a sideways to lower manner.

November crude oil posted an inside day with a higher close on Tuesday as it consolidated some of Monday's decline but remains below August's uptrend line crossing near 87.07. The mid range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. Closes below last Monday's low crossing at 85.17 would confirm an end to the corrective rally off August's low while opening the door for a larger-degree decline into the end of September.

Closes above the May-July downtrend line crossing near 91.62 would confirm an end to this summer's decline. First resistance is last Tuesday's high crossing at 90.60. Second resistance is the May-July downtrend line crossing near 91.62. First support is last Monday's low crossing at 85.17. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 83.47.

Monthly Trade Triangles for Long Term Trends = Negative
Weekly Trade Triangles for Intermediate Term Trends = Positive
Daily Trade Triangles for Short Term Trends = Negative
Combined Strength of Trend Score = – 65

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