Sunday, September 25, 2011

Oil N' Gold: Crude Oil Weekly Technical Outlook For Sunday Sept. 25th

Crude oil dropped sharply to as low as 77.55 last week and the development affirmed the case that consolidation from 75.71 is finished at 90.52 and whole decline from 114.83 is resuming. Initial bias remains on the downside this week with 82.21 minor resistance intact. Retest of 75.71 should be seen first. Break will target 70 psychological level and then 100% projection of 100.62 to 75.51 from 90.52 at 65.60. On the upside, above 82.21 minor resistance will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations. But recovery should be limited by 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 85.68) and bring fall resumption.

In the bigger picture, medium term rebound from 33.2 is treated as the second leg of consolidation pattern from 147.24 and should have finished at 114.83 already. Current decline should target next key cluster support at 64.23 (61.8% retracement of 33.2 to 114.83 at 64.38) next. Sustained break will pave the way to retest 33.2 low. On the upside, break of 90.52 resistance is needed to invalidate this view or we'll stay bearish in crude oil now.

In the long term picture, crude oil is in a long term consolidation pattern from 147.27, with first wave completed at 33.2, second wave might be finished. Upon confirmation of medium term reversal, the third wave of the pattern should have started for a retest on 33.2 low.

Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart

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