Sunday, September 11, 2011

Oil N' Gold: Weekly Technical Outlook For Crude Oil

Crude oil edged higher to 90.48 last week but lacked follow through buying and failed to sustain above 90 psychological level. The recovery from 75.71 is so far slightly stronger than expected. But the look of the price actions are still corrective, thus, favoring it's merely a consolidation. Hence, while further recovery could still be seen as long as 83.20 minor support holds, we'd expect upside to be limited below 100.62 resistance and bring resumption of fall from 114.83 eventually. Below 83.20 minor support will flip bias back to the downside for retesting 75.71 low first.

In the bigger picture, medium term rebound from 33.2 is treated as the second leg of consolidation pattern from 147.24 and should have finished at 114.83 already. Current decline should target next key cluster support at 64.23 (61.8% retracement of 33.2 to 114.83 at 64.38) next. Sustained break will pave the way to retest 33.2 low. However, break of 100.62 resistance will indicate that fall from 114.83 has completed after meeting missing 100% projection target. The corrective structure of such decline in turn argues that rise from 33.2 is still in progress for another high above 114.83.

In the long term picture, crude oil is in a long term consolidation pattern from 147.27, with first wave completed at 33.2, second wave might be finished. Upon confirmation of medium term reversal, the third wave of the pattern should have started for a retest on 33.2 low.

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