Thursday, October 20, 2011

Oil N' Gold: Crude Oil Daily Technical Outlook For Thursday Oct. 20th

Crude oil's break of 85.55 minor support argues that whole rebound from 74.95 has completed at 89.51, on bearish divergence condition in 4 hours MACD. Intraday bias is back to the downside and break of 83.17 support should confirm this bearish case and target a test on 74.95 low. On the upside, in case of another rise, we'd continue to expect upside to be limited by 90.52 resistance (38.2% retracement of 114.83 to 74.95 at 90.18) and bring resumption of whole decline from 114.83. However, note that decisive break of 90.52 will argue that crude oil has completed a double bottom reversal pattern (75.71, 74.95) and would bring stronger rise through 100.62 resistance.

In the bigger picture, medium term rebound from 33.2 is treated as the second leg of consolidation pattern from 147.24 and should have finished at 114.83 already. Current decline should target next key cluster support at 64.23 (61.8% retracement of 33.2 to 114.83 at 64.38) next. Sustained break will pave the way to retest 33.2 low. On the other hand, note that the fall from 114.83 is note clearly displaying an impulsive structure yet. Break of 90.52 will argue that price actions from 114.83 could merely be forming a sideway consolidation pattern and rise from 33.2 might still extend beyond 114.83 before completion.

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