Tuesday, November 8, 2011

Commodities Gain Strength on the Back of a Weaker U.S. Dollar

Crude oil closed higher on Tuesday extending the rally off October's low. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If December extends the rally off this month's low, the 62% retracement level of the May-October decline crossing at 100.08 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 90.63 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the May-October decline crossing at 100.08. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the May-October decline crossing at 105.41. First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 90.63. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 89.17.

Natural gas was higher due to short covering on Tuesday as it consolidated some of Monday's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If December extends this year's decline, monthly support crossing at 3.225 is the next downside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 3.978 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 3.978. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 4.039. First support is Monday's low crossing at 3.652. Second support is monthly support crossing at 3.225.

Gold closed higher on Tuesday as it extends the rally off September's low. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that additional strength is possible near term. If December extends the rally off September's low, the 75% retracement level of the 2008-2011 rally crossing at 1826.50 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 1704.70 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2008-2011 rally crossing at 1826.50. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2008-2011 rally crossing at 1875.10. First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 1748.30. Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1704.70.


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