Saturday, November 19, 2011

Crude Oil Confirms Thursdays Key Reversal Down Day

Crude oil closed lower on Friday confirming yesterday's key reversal down and closed below the 10 day moving average crossing at 98.11 hinting that a short term top might be in or is near. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning bearish hinting that a short term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 95.46 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. If December renews the rally off this month's low, the 75% retracement level of the May-October decline crossing at 105.42 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the May-October decline crossing at 105.42. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the May-October decline crossing at 110.46. First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 95.46. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 89.17.

Natural gas closed lower on Friday as it extended this year's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If December extends this year's decline, monthly support crossing at 3.225 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.669 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 3.525. Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.669. First support is today's low crossing at 3.285. Second support is monthly support crossing at 3.225.

Gold posted an inside day with a higher close on Friday as it consolidated some of Thursday's decline but remains below the 20 day moving average crossing at 1748.40. The mid range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If December extends this week's decline, the reaction low crossing at 1681.20 is the next downside target. Closes above Monday's high crossing at 1797.60 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 1797.60. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2008-2011 rally crossing at 1826.50. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 1711.00. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 1681.20.


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