Monday, November 14, 2011

Crude Oil, Natural Gas and Gold Bulls All Take a Slide

Crude oil closed lower due to profit taking on Monday as it consolidated some of the rally off October's low. The mid range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If December extends the rally off this month's low, the 62% retracement level of the May-October decline crossing at 100.08 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 92.96 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the May-October decline crossing at 100.08. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the May-October decline crossing at 105.41. First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 95.59. Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 92.96.

Natural gas gapped down and closed sharply lower on Monday as it extends this year's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If December extends this year's decline, monthly support crossing at 3.225 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.758 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 3.686. Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.758. First support is today's low crossing at 3.449. Second support is monthly support crossing at 3.225.

Gold closed lower on Monday and the low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning bearish hinting that a short term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 1726.00 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. If December extends the rally off September's low, the 75% retracement level of the 2008-2011 rally crossing at 1826.50 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2008-2011 rally crossing at 1826.50. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2008-2011 rally crossing at 1875.10. First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1726.00. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 1681.20.


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