Tuesday, November 8, 2011

Phil Flynn: Old Risks Return

Something old something new something bullish and something blue. The bulls have wrestled control of the petroleum markets with a slew of bullish news and some strong technical formations driving oil to a three month high. With the market focused on the bailout of Europe the risk to supply is increasing as tension between Israel and Iran are heating up. In fact for oil the situation with Iran and the violence in Nigeria and Syria may be a better reason to be long than the European charades. European finance chiefs continue to work on details increase the European Financial Stability Facility by$1.4 trillion.

Oh sure we know the new economic maxim that bailouts are bullish yet as the market awaits the fate of Italian Prime Minister Berlusconi and who the New leader of Greece is going to be it may be the fate of Iran that may present more risk. Debate is raging in Israel on whether they should attack Iran as the regime once again lied to the world about their nuclear intentions. According to Intelligence provided to U.N. nuclear officials Iran has mastered the critical steps needed to build a nuclear weapon. Israel feels that they may be the target and the risk of a conflict is being priced into oil.

Nigeria continues to be a risk as well recent violence by Islamic fundamentalists is putting supply at risk. Reuters' news reports that " Nigeria's national security adviser on Monday dismissed a weekend warning from the United States of an Islamits bomb threat to luxury hotels in the capital as "not news," and said it was spreading unnecessary panic. The attacks were the deadliest since Islamist sect Boko Haram launched an insurgency against the government in 2009. The group claimed responsibility for the violence that left bodies littering the streets and police stations in ruins.

Witnesses reported gunfire in the city again on Monday, but military sources said it was from guards at the Yobe state governor's house firing at a suspicious speeding car, and gave no further details."The (U.S. statement) is eliciting unhealthy public anxiety and generating avoidable tension," said Owoeye Andrew Azazi, Nigeria's national security adviser. "The ... government wants to advise members of the public that it (will) continue to ensure security of lives and property under its jurisdiction."

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