Friday, December 16, 2011

Crude Oil? Bah Humbug!

Oil traders need to get visited by the ghosts of Christmas oil trading past, present and future to get that holiday risk taking sprit. Remember those famous Christmas spikes on Iran rumors or when Russia cut off gas supplies to Europe? Yesterday oil traders acted like someone told them there was no Santa Claus the way they pulled in their bull horns and hid from risk.

This is despite the fact that all of the economic data that was released such as weekly jobless claims, the Empire State and Philly Fed Manufacturing numbers and good numbers from FED-EX, should have got the bullish juices flowing, yet after the blood bath the day before, kept traders cautious and fearful. Oh, some Scrooge may point out that the Industrial Production number had a lot to be desired but the preponderance of the evidence suggests that the US economy is indeed improving.

Of course we know what the problem is. The problem is Europe. Europe continues to miss opportunities to try to set the market straight as their aversion to stimulus and euro bonds is holding us back. You can be pro quantitative easing or anti quantitative easing but based on the US data, compare the US debt with record low yields against Europe with record high yields, at least for now quantitative easing seems to be working better than the European inflation aversion. Ben Bernanke may be smiling......Read the entire article.

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