Wednesday, February 29, 2012

Why Has Crude Oil Stalled?

Let's take look at crude oil with a critical eye and find out why this market has stalled.

The crude oil market is now getting into an oversold condition, which may be setting the stage for a perfect buying opportunity. We remain positive on this market. We are expecting oil to regroup over the $105 level and generate enough energy to push it to new highs over the $110 area. We are looking for crude oil to make its highs probably somewhere in the May period.

With a Score of +75, this market is in an emerging trend to the upside. We remain longer term positive on this market. With our monthly and weekly Trade Triangles in a positive mode, we expect we will see further gains in crude oil. All traders should be long this market with appropriate money management stops.

Crude oil closed higher on Wednesday ending a two day correction off last week's high. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning bearish hinting that a short term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 102.52 would confirm that a short term top has been posted.

If April extends this winter's rally, the 2011 high crossing at 114.09 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 109.95. Second resistance is the 2011 high crossing at 114.09. First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 106.05. Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 102.52.

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