Monday, March 19, 2012

Crude Oil Closes Above $108....Is This a Positive Sign?

Crude oil [April contract] closed higher on Monday while extending the trading range of the past two weeks. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If April renews this winter's rally, the 2011 high crossing at 114.09 is the next upside target.

Closes below last Thursday's crossing at 103.78 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is this month's high crossing at 110.55. Second resistance is the 2011 high crossing at 114.09. First support is last Thursday's low crossing at 103.78. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 97.73.

The close in crude oil today over the $108.20 level should be viewed as extremely positive for this commodity. We believe the low that was seen last Thursday is a cyclic low similar to what occurred in early February and the middle of December. If this is indeed the case, we expect this market to start moving higher this week.

We continue to like the chart formation which we believe will eventually push this market higher until early April. We are looking for crude oil to make its highs probably somewhere in the April, May period. With a Score of +75, we believe this market is regrouping to move higher later in the month. With two of our Trade Triangles in a positive mode, we expect to see further gains in crude oil. Long term traders should be long this market with appropriate money management stops.

Today’s Stock Market Club Trading Triangles

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