Tuesday, March 13, 2012

Crude Oil, Natural Gas and Gold market Commentary For Tuesday March 13th

Crude oil [April contract] posted an inside day with a higher close on Tuesday as it extends the trading range of the past two weeks. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish hinting that a short term top might be in or is near. Closes below last Wednesday's crossing at 104.35 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. If April renews this winter's rally, the 2011 high crossing at 114.09 is the next upside target. First resistance is this month's high crossing at 110.55. Second resistance is the 2011 high crossing at 114.09. First support is last Wednesday's low crossing at 104.35. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 97.73.

Natural gas [April contract] posted a key reversal up due to short covering on Tuesday as it consolidated some of the decline off February's high. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning neutral to bullish hinting that a short term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 2.537 would confirm that a short term low has been posted. If April extends the multi year decline, monthly support crossing at 1.960 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 2.376. Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 2.537. First support is today's low crossing at 2.204. Second support is monthly support crossing at 1.960.

Gold [April contract] closed sharply lower due to strength in the financial markets on Tuesday. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning neutral to bullish hinting that a low is in or near. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 1726.90 would temper the near term bearish outlook. If April renews the decline off February's high, the reaction low crossing at 1652.20 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1726.90. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 1792.70. First support is last Tuesday's low crossing at 1663.40. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 1652.20.

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