Saturday, March 10, 2012

ONG: Crude Oil Weekly Technical Outlook For Saturday March 10th

Crude oil dipped to 104.35 last week but drew support form 38.2% retracement of 95.44 to 110.55 at 104.78 and recovered. However, the recovery was weak so far and looks corrective. The development suggest that another decline would be seen as correction from 110.55 extends. Below 104.35 will target 61.8% retracement at 101.21. On the upside, break of 110.55 will confirm rally resumption for 114.83 key resistance. But before that, more consolidative trading would be seen first.

In the bigger picture, the medium term up trend from 33.2 shouldn't be completed yet. Rise from 74.95 is indeed tentatively treated as resumption of such rally. Sustained break of 114.83 will target 61.8% projection of 33.2 to 114.83 from 74.95 at 125.40. On the downside, though, break of 95.44 support will indicate that correction pattern from 114.83 is going to extend further with another falling leg to 74.95 and below before completion.

In the long term picture, crude oil is in a long term consolidation pattern from 147.27, with first wave completed at 33.2. The corrective structure of the rise from 33.2 indicates that it's second wave of the consolidation pattern. While it could make another high above 114.83, we'd anticipate strong resistance ahead of 147.24 to bring reversal for the third leg of the consolidation pattern.

Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract 4 Hour, Daily, Weekly and Monthly Charts


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