Wednesday, April 18, 2012

Crude Oil Closes Lower on Unexpected Inventory Build

Crude oil [May contract] closed lower on Wednesday following today's stocks report that showed crude oil supplies increased more than expected. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday.

Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 104.07 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. If May renews the decline off March's high, the 38% retracement level of the October-March rally crossing at 97.84 is the next downside target.

First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing near 104.07. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 105.49. First support is last Tuesday's low crossing at 100.68. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the October-March rally crossing at 97.84.

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Natural gas [May contract] closed lower on Wednesday as it extended the multi year decline. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

If May extends the multi year decline, monthly support crossing at 1.620 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 2.147 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted.

First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 2.023. Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 2.147. First support is today's low crossing at 1.940. Second support is monthly support crossing at 1.620.

Just click here for your FREE trend analysis of UNG, the Natural Gas ETF

Gold closed lower [June contract] on Wednesday extending the decline off last week's high. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

If June extends the decline off February's high, the 75% retracement level of the December-February rally crossing at 1595.00 is the next downside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 1685.40 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted.

First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1685.40. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1699.60. First support is this month's low crossing at 1613.00. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the December-February rally crossing at 1595.00.

Just click here for your FREE trend analysis of gold ETF GLD

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