Thursday, April 5, 2012

Crude Oil Gets a Lift From Job Report

Crude oil [May contract] closed higher due to short covering on Thursday as it consolidates some of Wednesday's decline. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral hinting that a low might be in or is near.

Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 105.73 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. If May extends the decline off March's high, the 38% retracement level of the October-March rally crossing at 97.84 is the next downside target.

First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing near 104.63. Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 105.73. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 101.88. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the October-March rally crossing at 97.84.

We are looking at a possible positive divergence for crude oil using the Williams% R indicator. Yesterday’s move in the May crude oil gave us a perfect 61.8% Fibonacci retracement for this contract. We expect this market to regroup and consolidate around current levels. Longer term we remain positive given the fact that our monthly Trade Triangle is in a green positive mode.

We are looking for crude oil to make its highs probably somewhere in the April/May period. With a trading score of -60 this commodity is currently in trading range. Long term traders should remain long this market with appropriate money management stops.

Check out Thursdays video and get a jump on next weeks trading.


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