Monday, April 30, 2012

Crude Oil, Natural Gas and Gold Market Commentary For Monday April 30th

Why the U.S. Dollar is Critical for the S&P 500 Index this Week

Crude oil [June contract] closed higher on Monday and the high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 105.50 are needed to confirm that a short term trend change has taken place. If June renews the decline off March's high, the 38% retracement level of the October-March rally crossing at 98.14 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 105.50. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 105.99. First support is April's low crossing at 101.22. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the October-March rally crossing at 98.14.

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Natural gas [June contract] closed higher on Monday and above the 20 day moving average crossing at 2.143 as it extended the rally off last week's low. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If June extends the rally off last week's low, the reaction high crossing at 2.335 is the next upside target. If June renews the multi year decline, monthly support crossing at 1.620 is the next downside target. First resistance is today's high crossing at 2.294. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 2.335. First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 2.102. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 1.982.

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Gold closed higher [June contract] on Monday and the high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling sideways to higher prices are possible near term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 1699.60 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. If June renews the decline off February's high, the 75% retracement level of the December-February rally crossing at 1595.00 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1681.30. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1699.60. First support is April's low crossing at 1613.00. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the December-February rally crossing at 1595.00.

Dollar Likely Holds Clues Regarding the Immediate Future

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