Tuesday, June 5, 2012

Bulls are Hopeful 81.36 is the Magic Support Number....Probably Not!

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The numbers just don't add up for the bulls as crude oil closed higher due to short covering on Tuesday as it bounced off the 87% retracement level of the 2011-2012 rally crossing at 81.36. The mid range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Wednesday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If July extends this month's decline, last October's low crossing at 77.05 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 91.41 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 87.96. Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 91.41. First support is Monday's low crossing at 81.21 and second support is quite a ways below that at last October's low crossing at 77.05.

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Natural gas closed higher due to short covering on Tuesday as it consolidated some of last week's decline. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If July extends last week's decline, the reaction low crossing at 2.166 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 2.576 would confirm that a short term low has been posted First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 2.576. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 2.838. First support is last Friday's low crossing at 2.313. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 2.166.

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Gold closed higher on Tuesday as it consolidates below the 38% retracement level of this year's decline. The mid range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If August extends last Friday's rally, April's high crossing at 1674.30 is the next upside target. If August renews the decline off February's high, the 75% retracement level of the 2010-2011 rally crossing at 1461.30 is the next downside target. First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 1632.00. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 1674.30. First support is the reaction low crossing at 1529.30. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2010-2011 rally crossing at 1461.30.

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