Friday, June 29, 2012

Crude oil appears to set a near term bottom

Crude oil for August delivery closed sharply higher on Friday gaining $7.27 to settle at $84.96 a barrel, above the 20 day moving average crossing at 82.52 confirming that a short term low has been posted. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Sunday's night session begins.

Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If August renews this spring's decline, the 75% retracement level of the 2011-2012 rally crossing at 73.28 is the next downside target.

First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 87.32. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 92.52. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 77.28. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2011-2012 rally crossing at 73.28.

European leaders attending a two day summit agreed early Friday on a plan to use bailout funds to directly aid banks in Spain and Italy. The move in crude oil futures came as investors cheered the plan to help the euro zone's struggling banks.

The move, along with plans to bring Europe closer together, led to a surge in the euro, equities and commodities markets. The euro recently traded at $1.2684, up 1.9% from $1.2444 on Thursday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average recently traded 1.5% higher at 12,789.

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