Thursday, August 16, 2012

Crude Oil Bulls Take New Momemtun into Fridays Trading Session

Crude oil closed higher on Thursday and above the 50% retracement level of this year's decline crossing at 94.28 as it renewed the rally off June's low. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins.

Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If September extends the rally off June's low, the 62% retracement level of this year's decline crossing at 98.20 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 91.17 would confirm that a short term top has been posted while opening the door for a larger degree decline near term.

First resistance is today's high crossing at 95.75. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of this year's decline crossing at 98.20. First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 93.26. Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 91.17.


Natural gas closed lower on Thursday as it renewed the decline off July's high. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

If September extends the decline off July's high, the 62% retracement level of the April-July rally crossing at 2.626 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 2.973 would temper the near term bearish outlook.

First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 2.842. Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 2.973. First support is today's low crossing at 2.685. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the April-July rally crossing at 2.626.


Gold closed higher on Thursday as it extends this summer's trading range. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

If October renews the decline off July's high, the reaction low crossing at 1564.50 is the next downside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 1644.00 are needed to confirm an upside breakout of this summer's trading range.

First resistance is July's high crossing at 1626.90. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1644.00. First support is the reaction low crossing at 1584.20. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 1564.50.

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