Saturday, August 25, 2012

Crude Oil, Natural Gas and Gold all Head South into Fridays Close


October crude oil closed lower on Friday due to profit taking as it continues to set back from the 62% retracement level of this year's decline crossing at 98.22. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are turning bearish hinting that a short term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 93.47 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. If October extends the rally off June's low, the 75% retracement level of this year's decline crossing at 102.50 is the next upside target. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 98.29. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of this year's decline crossing at 102.50. First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 95.59. Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 93.47.

September Henry natural gas closed lower on Friday as it extends the trading range of the past two weeks. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish hinting that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 2.877 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If September renews the decline off July's high, the 62% retracement level of the April-July rally crossing at 2.626 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 2.877. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 3.120. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 2.682. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the April-July rally crossing at 2.626.

October gold closed slightly lower on Friday as it consolidates below the 2011-2012 downtrend line crossing near 1674.00. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If October extends this month's rally, the 38% retracement level of the 2011-2012 decline crossing at 1683.10 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 1620.10 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 1675.10. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2011-2012 decline crossing at 1683.10. First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 1629.00. Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1620.10.

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