Sunday, September 9, 2012

ONG: Crude Oil, Natural Gas and Gold Weekly Technical Outlook For Sunday Sept. 9th

Well it's that time again. It's Sunday and it's time to check in with the staff at Oil N to get their call on crude oil, natural gas and gold.....

Crude oil's consolidation from 98.29 continued last week and outlook remains unchanged. With 92.94 support intact, further rally is still expected. Above 98.29 will extend the rise from 77.28 to 100 psychological level and above. However, as noted before, such rise could be the fourth leg inside the triangle pattern from 114.83. Hence, we'll be cautious on topping between 100 and 110. Meanwhile, break of 92.94 will be the first signal of reversal and turn focus to 86.92 support for confirmation.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 114.83 are viewed either a three wave consolidation pattern that's completed at 77.28, or a five wave triangle pattern that's still unfolding. In any case, break of 110.55 resistance will strongly suggest that whole rebound from 33.29 has resumed for above 114.83. While another fall could be seen before an eventual upside breakout, downside should be contained above 77.28 support.

In the long term picture, crude oil is in a long term consolidation pattern from 147.27, with first wave completed at 33.2. The corrective structure of the rise from 33.2 indicates that it's second wave of the consolidation pattern. While it could make another high above 114.83, we'd anticipate strong resistance ahead of 147.24 to bring reversal for the third leg of the consolidation pattern.

Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract 4 Hour, Daily, Weekly and Monthly Charts

Natural gas' recovery was limited by near term falling channel and retreated. Near term outlook remains bearish so far and fall from 3.277 is still expected to continue. Below 2.575 will target 2.168 support and below. However, break of 2.888 resistance will now confirm that fall from 3.277 has completed. More importantly, the corrective structure will raise the odd that rise fro 1.902 is resuming and will turn focus back to 3.277 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, the failure to sustain above 3.255 support turned resistance didn't confirm medium term trend reversal. That is, whole decline from 6.108 could still extend and a break below 2.168 will pave the way to a new low below 1.902. Nonetheless, again, sustained break of 3.255 will confirm trend reversal and a test on 4.983 key resistance level should at least be seen.

In the longer term picture, as long as 3.255 resistance holds, whole down trend from 13.694 (2008 high) is still in progress, so is that from 15.78 (2005 high). Another fall could be seen to 1999 low of 1.62 on resumption. But decisive break of 3.255 will now be an important sign of long term bottoming,

Nymex Natural Gas Continuous Contract 4 Hour, Daily, Weekly and Monthly Charts

Gold jumped further to as high as 1745.4 with a strong close at 1737.6. Initial bias remains on the upside and current rally should now extend to 1792.7/1804.4 resistance zone next. On the downside, below 1689.3 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations. But break of 1647.1 is needed to indicate near term reversal. Otherwise, we'll stay bullish in gold.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1923.7 high are viewed as a medium term consolidation pattern. There is no indication that such consolidation is finished, and more range trading could be seen. In any case, downside of any falling leg should be contained by 1478.3/1577.4 support zone and bring rebound. Meanwhile, break of 1792.7 resistance is needed to be the first signal of up trend resumption. Otherwise, the consolidation would extend further.

In the long term picture, with 1478.3 support intact, there is no change in the long term bullish outlook in gold. While some more medium term consolidation cannot be ruled out, we'd anticipate an eventual break of 2000 psychological level in the long run

Comex Gold Continuous Contract 4 Hour, Daily, Weekly and Monthly Charts

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