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Saturday, September 22, 2012

This Weeks Crude Oil, Natural Gas and Gold Weekly Technical Outlook

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Time for our weekly call from the great staff at Oil N'Gold.Com. Do they think the bulls are still in charge?.......

100 psychological level proved to be a difficult level for crude oil to break through. Last week's sharp decline and break of 94.08 support indicates that rebound from 77.28 has finished at 100.42 already. Deeper decline should be seen in near term back to 61.8% retracement of 77.28 to 100.42 at 86.12 and possibly below. Though, we'd expect strong support ahead of 77.28 to contain downside. Another rally is anticipated for 110.55 after completing the current consolidation.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that price actions from 114.83 are a triangle consolidation pattern. Fall from 100.42 is likely the fifth and the last leg of such consolidation. Having said that, downside should be contained above 77.28 and bring an upside breakout eventually. Break of 110.55 will strongly suggest that whole rebound from 33.29 has resumed for above 114.83.

In the long term picture, crude oil is in a long term consolidation pattern from 147.27, with first wave completed at 33.2. The corrective structure of the rise from 33.2 indicates that it's second wave of the consolidation pattern. While it could make another high above 114.83, we'd anticipate strong resistance ahead of 147.24 to bring reversal for the third leg of the consolidation pattern.

Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract 4 Hour, Daily, Weekly and Monthly Charts

Natural gas retreated last week but managed to hold well above 2.575 support and recovered. Overall development suggests firstly that price actions from 3.277 are corrective in nature. Secondly, there is no clear sign of breakout yet and more sideway trading could be seen in near term inside 2.575/3.277 range. Though, an upside break would be mildly in favor.

In the bigger picture, firstly, natural gas is still being supported by 50% retracement of 1.902 to 3.277 at 2.590. Secondly, price actions from 3.277 are corrective looking. The development indicates that rebound from 1.902 isn't over yet. Another rally will likely have 3.255 support turned resistance taken out decisively. And in that case, medium term decline from 6.108 should be confirmed to have completed. And, stronger rally would be seen back to 4.983 resistance and possibly above. This is now the preferred scenario as long as 2.575 support holds.

In the longer term picture, as long as 3.255 resistance holds, whole down trend from 13.694 (2008 high) is still in progress, so is that from 15.78 (2005 high). Another fall could be seen to 1999 low of 1.62 on resumption. But decisive break of 3.255 will now be an important sign of long term bottoming,

Nymex Natural Gas Continuous Contract 4 Hour, Daily, Weekly and Monthly Charts

Gold edged higher to 1790 last week but lost much momentum ahead of 1792.7/1804.4 resistance zone. Nonetheless, as long as 1720 minor support holds, current rise is still expected to continue. Decisive break of 1792.7/1804.4 resistance zone will have larger bullish implication and would pave the way to 1923.7 historical high. Though, break of 1720 will indicate near term reversal and will turn outlook bearish for 1674/1 support first.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1923.7 high are viewed as a medium term consolidation pattern. There is no indication that such consolidation is finished, and more range trading could be seen. In any case, downside of any falling leg should be contained by 1478.3/1577.4 support zone and bring rebound. Meanwhile, break of 1792.7/1804.4 resistance zone will argue that the long term uptrend is possibly resuming for a new high above 1923.7.

In the long term picture, with 1478.3 support intact, there is no change in the long term bullish outlook in gold. While some more medium term consolidation cannot be ruled out, we'd anticipate an eventual break of 2000 psychological level in the long run

Comex Gold Continuous Contract 4 Hour, Daily, Weekly and Monthly Charts

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