Friday, October 19, 2012

Crude Oil, Natural Gas and Gold Week Ending Market Commentary

Crude oil closed lower on Friday as weak earnings spur ideas of weakening energy demand. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If November renews the decline off September's high, the 62% retracement level of the June-September rally crossing at 87.19 is the next downside target. Multiple closes above last Wednesday's high crossing at 93.66 are needed to renew this month's rally. First resistance is last Wednesday's high crossing at 93.66. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 100.73. First support is the 62% retracement level of the June-September rally crossing at 87.19. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the June-September rally crossing at 84.29.

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Natural gas closed higher on Friday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If November renews the rally off August's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2011-2012 decline crossing at 3.965 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.415 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 3.647. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2011-2012 decline crossing at 3.965. First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.415. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 3.327.

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Gold closed lower on Friday as it renewed this month's decline. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If December extends this month's decline, the 38% retracement level of the May-October rally crossing at 1698.00 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 1764.70 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1764.70. Second resistance is this month's high crossing at 1798.10. First support is today's low crossing at 1716.00. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the May-October rally crossing at 1698.00.

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