The other warning signal we noted was the MACD signal which had crossed south and was a topping warning signal to get out of GOLD for intermediate traders. At the time, we surmised that a “wave 2” correction in sentiment, and therefore price was required to work off the overbought conditions. The first level attacked the 1681 areas roughly and then a “B” wave rally to 1751 roughly ensued. Wave 2’s are made up of a 3 wave pattern, A down- B up- and C down to finish. It appears that GOLD is now in the final C wave down in sentiment to complete the correction pattern.
Clues for the “C” wave include the Goldman Sachs quasi-bearish 2013 GOLD forecast that came out today. In addition, the media attempting to explain the drop in GOLD as being related to stronger than expected economic indicators or fiscal cliff negotiations, neither of which make any sense at all.
We expect GOLD therefore to complete the C wave correction at 1631 or 1681 specifically. There are Fibonacci fractal relationships to the first leg down (The A wave) at those levels, and they tend to repeat themselves in terms of crowd behavior. At the 1681 level we have the C wave equal to 61.8% of the A wave amplitude. At 1631 we have a more traditional C wave equal to the A wave. In either event, look for a washout low in GOLD occurring at anytime near term, and for traders to start scaling in long.
Below is the GLD ETF chart showing the two most likely bottoms for the precious metal, one of which already qualifies as of today’s trading: