Sunday, December 2, 2012

ONG: Crude Oil, Natural Gas and Gold Weekly Technical Outlook for Sunday Dec. 2nd

 It's time for this weeks call from the great staff at Oil N'

Crude oil stayed in established range of 84.05/89.90 last week. The corrective nature of the price actions from 84.05 so far argues that that it's merely a consolidation pattern. That is, fall from 100.42 isn't over yet. Hence, while stronger recovery could be seen as the consolidation continues, we'd expect upside to be limited by 50% retracement of 100.42 to 84.05 at 92.24. ON the downside, break of 84.05 will now target 77.28 support.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that price actions from 114.83 are a triangle consolidation pattern. Fall from 100.42 is likely the fifth and the last leg of such consolidation. Having said that, downside should be contained above 77.28 and bring an upside breakout eventually. Break of 110.55 will strongly suggest that whole rebound from 33.29 has resumed for above 114.83.

In the long term picture, crude oil is in a long term consolidation pattern from 147.27, with first wave completed at 33.2. The corrective structure of the rise from 33.2 indicates that it's second wave of the consolidation pattern. While it could make another high above 114.83, we'd anticipate strong resistance ahead of 147.24 to bring reversal for the third leg of the consolidation pattern.

Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract 4 Hour, Daily, Weekly and Monthly Charts

The case for near term reversal is starting to build up in natural gas. Consider it just bounced off from medium term falling trendline, has bearish divergence condition seen in daily MACD. Nonetheless, break of 3.47 support is needed to confirm topping first. Otherwise, another rally would remain in favor to 4.0 psychological level. Sustained break of 3.47 will turn focus to 3.355. Break there should confirm near term reversal and should at least bring pull back to 2.575/3.277 support zone.

In the bigger picture, recent developments argued that medium term decline from 6.108 is completed at 1.902 already. It's bit early to confirm but bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD suggests that the down trend from 13.694 (2008 high) is possibly over too. Sustained break of the channel resistance (now at around 3.88) will set the stage for a test on 4.983 key resistance next. Meanwhile, break of 3.277 resistance turned support will argue that the rebound from 1.902 is over and the medium larger down trend is still in progress for a new low.

In the longer term picture, decisive break of 3.255 resistance was an important signal of long term bottoming reversal and should at least give a push to 4.983/6.108 resistance zone.

Nymex Natural Gas Continuous Contract 4 Hour, Daily, Weekly and Monthly Charts

Gold's sharp at the end of the week suggests that corrective rebound from 1672.5 is possibly completed at 1755 already, on bearish divergence condition in 4 hours MACD. Initial focus in on 1704.5 minor support this week. Break will turn near term outlook bearish. In such case, whole decline from 1798 should be resuming for 61.8% retracement of 1526.7 to 1798.1 at 1630.4.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1923.7 high are viewed as a medium term consolidation pattern. There is no indication that such consolidation is finished, and more range trading could be seen. In any case, downside of any falling leg should be contained by 1478.3/1577.4 support zone and bring rebound. Meanwhile, break of 1792.7/1804.4 resistance zone will argue that the long term up trend is possibly resuming for a new high above 1923.7.

In the long term picture, with 1478.3 support intact, there is no change in the long term bullish outlook in gold. While some more medium term consolidation cannot be ruled out, we'd anticipate an eventual break of 2000 psychological level in the long run

Comex Gold Continuous Contract 4 Hour, Daily, Weekly and Monthly Charts

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