Friday, November 30, 2012

Is $3.933 This Winter’s High in Natural Gas?

Stephen Schork of the Schork Report is giving us a free Nat Gas 101 today. Do you think the high is in on natural gas for 2012?........

CME natural gas has now faded the 2011-2012 Fibonacci 62% retracement at 3.806 (continuous contract). In the wake of last week’s holiday rally to 3.933 and Wednesday’s 3.626 low print, it behooves us to take a look at history.

As illustrated in today’s issue of The Schork Report, in fifteen of the last twenty two heating seasons, the winter high in the CME Henry Hub contract was posted in the fourth quarter. In other words, nearly 70% of the time the high on the CME was put in well before the coldest period of the winter (i.e. the fourth week following the solstice). Moreover, on average, since 1990 the winter’s high is posted on December 10th; with half of the highs occurring before November 30th.

Counter to intuition, we tend to see the highest price for consumption commodities, especially natural gas, in the approach to the season. This is because fear and uncertainty regarding the market’s ability to offset looming, unknown demand, is priced into the front end of the curve.

To this effect, we have to consider: (1) was last week’s holiday (i.e. thinly traded) spike to 3.933 this winter’s high in spot gas, and (2) is the table now set for a run at the Oct/Nov roll-gap at 3.046?

In this vein, current telltales suggest the market is softening. For example, over the last week the backwardation on the cross-seasonal Mar/Apr spread was halved to 1.7 cents. In other words, supply concerns for this winter’s gas are falling.

That’s not bullish.

To receive a complimentary copy of today’s FULL research note, request a complimentary trial at www.SchorkReport.com. Just put CME in the source code field.


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Thursday, November 29, 2012

Playing the Long Term Trends in a Stock- ASPS Sample

Our trading partner David Banister must be in the holiday/giving spirit this week as he keeps cranking out the free trading advice....

How many times have you bought a stock and then a few weeks perhaps have gone by and you get frustrated with lack of real net movement? You see all kinds of other stocks moving every day and finally you give up, sell your stock and go chase another one. Inevitably what happens in many cases is you find out later that your instincts were right and your research was correct, as the stock you gave up on finally takes off leaving you frustrated.

Sometimes it helps to understand the long term picture of a stock cycle and try to determine where you may be at in the big picture. This way you may be more willing to sit on a stock a bit longer, understanding it may need some time to work off a prior large move to the upside. Stocks often consolidate in fibonacci periods of time, as those revolve mainly around sentiment related to the stock or the company itself. You can see big up moves that come out of nowhere and last for several weeks, and then many weeks of consolidation or mild decline. These are actually crowd behavioral movements playing out as sentiment swings from too bearish to overly bullish and back again.

In the sample below we outline ASPS, a strong growth company in the right sector at the right time. We can’t be sure that this stock will break out to the upside, but we do like the fundamentals and the catalysts ahead. At ATP we look for both technical and fundamental marriages as it were, and then do our best to time the entry and exits accordingly. ASPS plans to spin out two divisions as a stock dividend to shareholders in the next 30 days or so, and we think that will catalyze the shares as sentiment turns north.

In the meantime, the stock trades between 100 and 107 per share frustrating anyone who expects an immediate pop. Taking a look at a multi month chart with weekly views we can see that this actually has been consolidating for several weeks in a normal pattern. In this case the 20 week moving average line seems to be the bogey for this stock cycle for ASPS, and as we approach that line we may see a shift back north in sentiment. Should we be wrong, we will know if the stock breaks down materially from this crowd pattern in play now.

Stock Trading Alert

Above is the chart as of November 29th, let’s see how it plays out: Be sure to read our article about “Buying in the Trenches” as well. Disclosure: Our ATP service has recommended a long position in ASPS within the past few weeks.

Go to Active Trading Partners and subscribe by using coupon code AD499ATP in the coupon code field at the bottom of the sign up form. Sign up for quarterly and the discount will be applied at checkout, and you will get The Market Trend Forecast for free as well.


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Wednesday, November 28, 2012

What are the U.S. Dollar and Equities Market Relationships in the Near Term

The SP 500 is likely to pullback from a 66 point rally off the 1343 pivots. Those pivots were right at a Fibonacci fractal retracement of 61.8% of the Summer rally. That rally ran from 1267-1474 as we all know in hindsight, and the correction was a normal correction within a bull cycle.

Near term, we had a nice run to 1409 and met resistance there. We would expect a pullback to the 1384 areas on the SP 500, if not a bit lower in the coming days. The US Dollar is likely to get a bounce which will also pull down Precious Metals along with stocks near term.

We think this could be a opportunity to buy as we approach pivot pullback buy points, but of course we will monitor in the event the pullback becomes more dire than expected.

Below are charts of the US Dollar and The SP 500 Index and potential near term movements to monitor. Over at our we closed out long positions in NUGT ETF with nice gains yesterday as well as stocks with trading profits while we watch the pullback action.



From COT staff writer David Banister

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Tuesday, November 27, 2012

Are the Utilities Bottoming?.....It’s the Season to Own Utility Stocks

Over the past week we have been keeping our eye on several key sectors and stocks for potentially large end of year rallies to lock in more gains before 2013.

Our recent calls have been RIMM (up 54%), AAPL (up 5%), FB (up 8%) so it’s been a great month thus far. That being said there are three other plays that look amazing and one of them is the utilities sector.

Looking back 30 years clearly utilities have a tendency to rally going into year end. What makes this setup so exciting is that the Obama tax for 2013 has caused many investors to lock in capital gains along with dividend gains so the utility sector has recently been beaten.

We always like to cheer for the underdogs because they can make large moves quickly and this season its utility stocks.

30 Year Seasonality – Utilities Stocks

Utility Stocks Seasonality

Utility Sector ETFs:

In the graph below we show the main utility ETFs for trading. Simple analysis clearly shows the selling momentum is slowing and where price should go if it can breakout above the red dotted resistance line. Exchange traded funds XLU, FXU, IDU, and DBU are the funds we found to be setting up.

Utility Sector ETFs

Utilities Sector Trading Conclusion:

While we feel utilities are about start moving higher it is important to mention that the broad market is setting up for a 1-3 day pullback. If the stock market does pullback this week then we should see utilities pullback also. What we are looking for is a minor pullback in XLU with price holding up above $34 while the stock market pulls back.

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Monday, November 26, 2012

Dollar tell us Stocks are Likely to Pullback – Simple Analysis

The stock market is at a very critical pivot point which I feel will generate opportunities in December and for the first quarter of 2013.

Trading with the trend is not always an easy task. It is human nature to predict and jump to conclusions and usually it’s better to trade with the trend no matter what your emotions are telling you. The current trend is down and I stick with that until we are proven wrong.

If you carefully analyze the charts below you will understand where we are trading in the market and what the risks are at this point. The question is are in the middle of a trend reversal back up, or is this just a bounce within a down trend? Either way, any pullback this week should be aggressively managed to lock in gains and tighten stops because it could go either way and you do not want to be on the wrong side of the table.

The chart below shows the US dollar index 4 hour chart. It looks as though we should start to see a bounce this week and that should put pressure on stocks and commodities.

The SP500 (SPY etf) below that shows my analysis and key price levels. I took a short position on the SPY Friday afternoon as I feel a pullback is imminent. That being said, all I need is one big down day and I will be pulling money off the table to lock in gains and tighten my stop.

For a detailed educational lesson on stock market cycles read my mini course "The Golden Nugget That Makes Traders Wealthy Trading"

Dollar Index and SPY ETF Trading

My trading charts make reading the market simple, quick and precise so if you want this type of analysis and trade ideas delivered to your inbox every day including my Pre-Market video analysis then join my newsletter here at The Gold & Oil Guy.com

Chris Vermeulen

Sunday, November 25, 2012

Why the S&P 500 & Gold Rallied in the Face of Negative News

The amount of negative news that we have seen recently has been mind blowing. Europe is going into recession, Greece and several other countries are on the verge of bankruptcy, the Middle East is a powder keg, and the U.S. is facing a fiscal cliff. Shockingly for most retail traders, the past week has produced a very strong return for U.S. equity indexes as well as risk assets in general.

Retail investors often times consistently lose money because they focus on the financial media and all of the negative news that is out there. Trust me, as a longer term trader and investor, there is never an absence of negative news or potentially poor economic possibilities. This is not to say that markets cannot decline, investors just need to understand that markets are cyclical in nature and do not ever move in a straight line.

Based on what I was reading from most of the financial blogosphere recently, you would think that the entire world was about to end. A few blogs were calling for an all out collapse late last week or a possible crash this past Monday, November 19th. As is typically the case, the market prognosticators were wrong with the calls for a crash or an absolute collapse in financial markets.

Unlike those blogs, members of my service at the Traders Video Playbook were getting information indicating that we were expecting higher prices. At our service, we lay out regular videos covering a variety of underlying assets from the S&P 500 Index and oil futures, to gold and treasury futures. The focus is purely on analysis of various underlying assets across multiple time frames. We cover intraday time frames as well as daily and weekly swing time frames throughout the week with videos and written updates.

To put into perspective what we were seeing in the marketplace on Monday November 19th, the following charts were sent out to our members during intraday trading that day....Click here for "Why the S&P 500 & Gold Rallied in the Face of Negative News"

See you in the markets,

J.W. Jones

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Friday, November 23, 2012

Markets are Cyclical in Nature....Make sure you know these "Four Stages of Stocks"

Our good friend and trading partner Chris Vermeulen has put together an article detailing his classic economic theory that dissects the economic cycle into four distinct stages..... expansion, trough, decline and recovery. And he explains in detail why a stock is no different, and proceeds through these cycles.

Knowing this information is crucial to survival as this cycle happens on all time frames (1 minute chart all the way up to yearly charts). Harnessing this information for trade selection and timing greatly reduces the amount of trades you take, while focusing only on new leaders which have massive upside potential.

So take a few minutes and click here to read Markets are Cyclical in Nature....Make sure you know these "Four Stages of Stocks"

Thursday, November 22, 2012

Natural Gas Trade Idea....Buying in the Trenches Pays Off

Recently we wrote about Natural Gas ETF UGAZ on the ATP Free Blog site as a sample of buying the dip or using the “cup with handle” dip buying for profits. Our November 11th article discussed waiting for a pullback to the 30-31 ranges on UGAZ and then going long for a reversal.

Within 48 hours the dip came into the buy range, and within a few days UGAZ ran to the $38 range for as much as a 24% reversal trade gain. Even now some 9 days later UGAZ trades around $36 per share for nice gains.

UGAZ - Natural Gas Trade Idea


Another sample we had for subscribers was on November 7th in RIMM stock. We advised waiting for a pullback from 9.15 ranges to the 8.50-8.70 ranges. When the pullback came this is what we sent to subscribers:

ATP Active Trade Alert

RIMM- 8.64 has fallen as projected in to the 8.50-8.75 swing entry buy ranges.

This is an active trade meaning 1-5 days likely and a stop should be placed at 4-6% below your entry and NO LOWER than 8.00 for aggressive partners who take the trade.

Now on November 20th, about two weeks later, RIMM is trading near $10.00 per share. The stock fell to 8.14 during the market correction which was above the $8.00 stop and above a 6% stop loss range from entry. Partners who remained long would now be sitting on gains of 14%.



Consider joining our Swing Trading service we call Active Trading Partners and get education, advice, and on going daily updates. You will also receive our Market Trend Forecast service which covers Gold, Silver, and the SP 500 short and intermediate forecasts.

Go to ActiveTradingPartners.com and subscribe by using coupon code AD499ATP in the coupon code field at the bottom of the sign up form. Sign up for quarterly and the discount will be applied at checkout, and you will get The Market Trend Forecast for free as well.

Tuesday, November 20, 2012

Market at Risk of One More Leg Down in November

There is nobody better in the industry at predicting market sentiment then David Banister. And he was kind enough to share a call on the overall market before the holiday weekend. Here's why Banister thinks the bulls are in for another punch in the gut before the end of the year.....

The SP 500 declined a perfect 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the summer rally from the 1267 lows to the 1474 highs. In our work we examine human behavioral patterns, sentiment, and Elliott Wave patterns to help with clues on market direction. To be sure, there is no such thing as a perfect technical analysis methodology, so we do our best to mix up a home cooked recipe for assistance in getting as close as we can to calling the pivots up and down.

In the near term, we notice the market has rallied out about 45 points off the 1344 pivot lows last week to around 1390 today. This retracement marks a normal 38.2% Fibonacci recovery of the most recent wave 3 decline to 1344. Typically, this is a wave 4 mini-bullish pattern as washout lows get bought and then shorts cover fueling the rally a bit higher. However, this is often when another sledgehammer comes out of left field and knocks the market down in what we would call a “Wave 5” decline to new lows on the downtrend.

Investors should watch both the 20 day moving average which is declining and around 1392 or so, and the 1388-1392 38% Fibonacci retracement areas for resistance. Only a strong close over 1392 can eliminate the potential for one more leg down to the 1316 areas on the SP 500 before the month of November comes to a close. With that said, we expect a rally in December for the markets and hope to see this barrier taken out soon, but would advise traders to tread with caution until such time.




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Keep Your Eye On Trends & Reversals..... SPY, RIMM, KOL

Today our trading partner Chris Vermeulen gives us some trades to keep an eye on....

The equities market technically still has another day of positive momentum behind it and with a short holiday week higher prices are favored.

This morning in the video I mentioned how oil continues to look untradible because of the sharp news related swings and lack of clear chart patterns. Yesterday it rallied over 2% and today is back down 2%.… Steer clear of this beast…

SP500 (broad market) continues to grind sideways/higher today. Volume is very light which bodes well for lower prices in the coming days. I would love to see a Pop-N-Drop tomorrow which is when the index gaps higher at the open into a resistance zone at which point we would be looking to get short (buy the SDS).

Research In Motion shares hit our first resistance level after being upgraded this morning…. Buy the rumor sell the news…? If you are long taking some money off the table here is smart play and to move your stop to break even or better.

Coal sector is looking tasty today and we may take a long position in KOL, but I will update if I do so.

Chris Vermeulen

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Monday, November 19, 2012

Did Speculators Bail Too Soon on Natural Gas?

From Stephen Schork of The Schork Report....

Last Wednesday, Thursday and Friday spot CME natural gas futures tested the 2011-2012 Fibonacci 62% retracement at 3.806 (continuous contract), and each time the market closed its session below 3.800.

The bull’s latest rallying cry is last Thursday’s weekly storage update in which the EIA reported the first delivery of gas for the winter. However, as noted in the The Schork Report on Friday, a delivery at this point of the season is not unprecedented.

Be that as it may, after natural gas prices troughed in late August and peaked in the middle of October, open interest for the CME futures had declined by around 5%. Thus, the market has set ammo aside that can be (and perhaps already is) employed to push the market higher.

From the perspective of the term structure, the contango on the balance of winter strip to next summer narrowed from minus 0.111/Dth to minus 0.060/Dth last week. What’s more, as illustrated in today’s issue of the The Schork Report, weather for two-thirds of the country favor the bulls through the end of this month.

Did Speculators bail too soon on natural gas?

Per Friday’s CFTC report, the futures position in CME gas for producers rose by 5.4% to 40,101 net shorts. Over the last two months the short position held by producers has doubled. On the other side of the ring, the futures position in CME gas for speculators narrowed for a fourth straight week. As of last Tuesday, money manager’s length fell by 5% or 5,999 contracts, while their shorts dropped by 2½% or 3,936 contracts. As a result, their net position in the market has morphed from 43,045 longs (which was their 11th longest position recorded since the CFTC began disaggregating the data in 2006) to 2,583 shorts.

As far as this week’s technicals on the CME go, bids through last week's 3.830 high print clear a path towards $4 and our 4.005 weekly inflection point. Above here we will look for momentum towards our 4.220 upper limit. On the other hand, offers through last week's 3.650 midpoint alerts to follow through weakness towards our 3.575 lower inflection point. Offers below here clear a path towards our 3.360 weekly limit.

To receive a complimentary copy of today’s FULL research note, request a complimentary trial at www.SchorkReport.com. Please put CME in the source code field.

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Sunday, November 18, 2012

Transocean Releases Fleet Update Summary

Transocean (NYSE: RIG] today issued a monthly fleet update summary which includes new contracts, significant changes to existing contracts, and changes in estimated planned out of service time of 15 or more days since October 17, 2012. Backlog for new contracts or extensions associated with continuing operations since the October 17, 2012 fleet status report is approximately $1.1 billion.

Estimated 2012 out of service time for continuing operations increased by a net 25 days; 2013 out of service time decreased by a net 39 days. Estimated out of service time on rigs classified as discontinued operations increased by a net 93 days for 2012 and decreased by a net five days for 2013. The net increase in out of service time for discontinued operations for 2012 and 2013 includes 86 days to complete repairs on the GSF Key Hawaii.

Click here for other highlights from the report

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Crude Oil, Natural Gas and Gold Weekly Technical Outlook for Sunday Nov. 18th

Time to check in with the staff at ONG and get their call for crude oil, natural gas and gold as we get ready to trade the shortened holiday week.....

Crude oil stayed in sideways trading above 84.05 last week and outlook remains unchanged. More consolidations would be seen in near term. But note that it's still staying well inside near term falling channel. And after all, as long as 89.22 minor resistance holds, deeper decline is still in favor. Below 84.05 will target 80 psychological level next. Though, we'd expect strong support ahead of 77.28 and bring rebound. Meanwhile, break of 89.22 should indicate short term reversal and target 93.66 resistance and above.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that price actions from 114.83 are a triangle consolidation pattern. Fall from 100.42 is likely the fifth and the last leg of such consolidation. Having said that, downside should be contained above 77.28 and bring an upside breakout eventually. Break of 110.55 will strongly suggest that whole rebound from 33.29 has resumed for above 114.83.

In the long term picture, crude oil is in a long term consolidation pattern from 147.27, with first wave completed at 33.2. The corrective structure of the rise from 33.2 indicates that it's second wave of the consolidation pattern. While it could make another high above 114.83, we'd anticipate strong resistance ahead of 147.24 to bring reversal for the third leg of the consolidation pattern.

Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract 4 Hour, Daily, Weekly and Monthly Charts

No change in the natural gas outlook. As long as 3.355 support holds, further rally is still expected. Rise fro 2.575 would extend to medium term channel resistance next (now at around 3.86). Break will target 4.0 psychological level. However, considering that it's near to important resistance level, break of 3.355 will indicate near term topping and would bring deeper pull back towards 55 days EMA (now at 3.327).

In the bigger picture, recent developments argued that medium term decline from 6.108 is completed at 1.902 already. It's bit early to confirm but bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD suggests that the down trend from 13.694 (2008 high) is possibly over too. Sustained break of the channel resistance (now at around 3.88) will set the stage for a test on 4.983 key resistance next. Meanwhile, break of 2.575 support will argue that the rebound from 1.902 is over and the medium larger down trend is still in progress for a new low.

In the longer term picture, decisive break of 3.255 resistance will be an important signal of long term bottoming reversal and could at least give a push to 4.983/6.108 resistance zone.

Nymex Natural Gas Continuous Contract 4 Hour, Daily, Weekly and Monthly Charts

Gold lost momentum after hitting 1739.4 and spiraled lower from there. Initial bias is neutral this week for some more sideway trading. But another rise remain in favor as long as 1703.0 minor support holds. Above 1739.4 will extend the rebound from 1672.5. But we might see strong resistance ahead of 1798.1 high and bring another decline. Meanwhile, below 1703 minor support will flip bias back to the downside for 50% retracement of 1526.7 to 1798.1 at 1662.4 and below.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1923.7 high are viewed as a medium term consolidation pattern. There is no indication that such consolidation is finished, and more range trading could be seen. In any case, downside of any falling leg should be contained by 1478.3/1577.4 support zone and bring rebound. Meanwhile, break of 1792.7/1804.4 resistance zone will argue that the long term up trend is possibly resuming for a new high above 1923.7.

In the long term picture, with 1478.3 support intact, there is no change in the long term bullish outlook in gold. While some more medium term consolidation cannot be ruled out, we'd anticipate an eventual break of 2000 psychological level in the long run

Comex Gold Continuous Contract 4 Hour, Daily, Weekly and Monthly Charts


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Thursday, November 15, 2012

EIA Weekly Natural Gas Update

Here's the EIA weekly natural gas overview for week ending November 14th.

* Natural gas prices generally registered overall increases for the report week (Wednesday to Wednesday) at many of the country’s trading locations. The Henry Hub price dipped during the early portion of the reporting period before rebounding to close at $3.66 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) yesterday (up 19 cents per MMBtu for the week).

* The natural gas futures market trended higher over most of the week. At the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), the December 2012 natural gas contract gained 18.2 cents per MMBtu to close at $3.760 per MMBtu yesterday.

* Working natural gas in storage declined last week to 3,911 billion cubic feet (Bcf) as of Friday, November 9, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (WNGSR). An implied storage withdrawal of 18 Bcf for the week positioned storage volumes 71 Bcf above year ago levels.

* The natural gas rotary rig count, as reported by Baker Hughes Incorporated on November 9, decreased by 11 to 413 active units. Meanwhile, oil directed rigs increased by 16 to 1,389 units.



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National Oilwell Varco Announces Increase in Regular Quarterly Dividend

COT Fund fav National Oilwell Varco, Inc. (NYSE: NOV) today announced that its Board of Directors has approved an increase in the regular quarterly cash dividend to $0.13 per share of common stock, payable on December 21, 2012 to each stockholder of record on December 7, 2012.

Pete Miller, Chairman, President and CEO of National Oilwell Varco, remarked, "This dividend increase reflects the Company's strong financial condition and our confidence in our business going forward."

National Oilwell Varco is a worldwide leader in the design, manufacture and sale of equipment and components used in oil and gas drilling and production operations, the provision of oilfield services, and supply chain integration services to the upstream oil and gas industry.

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Wednesday, November 14, 2012

Halliburton Announces Nine Cent Dividend

Halliburton (NYSE: HAL) announced that its board of directors has declared a 2012 fourth quarter dividend of nine cents ($0.09) a share on the company’s common stock payable December 27, 2012 to shareholders of record at the close of business on December 6, 2012.

Get more Halliburton info by visiting the company’s website at www.halliburton.com.


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Kinder Morgan’s El Paso Natural Gas Pipeline Signs Long Term Contract to Serve Customers in Mexico

El Paso Natural Gas (EPNG), owned by Kinder Morgan Energy Partners (KMP) and Kinder Morgan, Inc. (KMI), has entered into a 25 year transportation precedent agreement in connection with plans to build a new pipeline to serve customers in Mexico. Terms call for EPNG, acting through its affiliate Sasabe Pipeline Company, to initially provide approximately 200 million cubic feet per day of firm transportation capacity via a new, 60 mile, 36 inch diameter lateral pipeline that would extend from EPNG’s existing south mainlines, near Tucson, Ariz., to the U.S.-Mexico border, terminating at Sasabe, Ariz. The proposed Sasabe Pipeline would interconnect via a new international border crossing with a 36 inch diameter natural gas pipeline to be built in Mexico.

According to Mark Kissel, president of Kinder Morgan’s Natural Gas Pipelines West Region, this natural gas infrastructure project would benefit both the United States and Mexico. “This agreement supports the ongoing development of the approximately $200 million Sasabe Lateral pipeline, which would create new jobs in Arizona, and also provide a market for transporting abundant, low-priced U.S. gas production to Mexico. In addition, the project will help Mexico meet its environmental goals of converting existing fuel oil fired power generation plants to efficient, clean burning natural gas and also having natural gas supplies available for new plants in the future.”

Read the entire news release

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E-Mini Success Formula is now LIVE!

We are LIVE, we are opening our E-Mini Success Formula to the public. I am well aware that only 1 out of 50 traders who receive this message will take action.

Most traders whine about the volatility in the market and secretly cower in the corner, stricken with fear at the possibility of getting caught on the wrong side of the trade.

Most traders publicly declare that they want more money, that they want more consistency in their trading, and that they want to spend more time with their family, but they prove otherwise by taking unnecessary risks, not trading with the probabilities in their favor, and spending too much time looking in all the wrong places when trying to make a trading decision.

And most traders will claim a trading mentor is too expensive, but they'll settle for making poor trading decisions, lack proper guidance, and be without trading methods that have helped thousands of traders improve their trading beyond what they might have been able to do themselves.

If you're dead serious about your financial future, if you're dead serious about making a difference for the people relying on you to succeed, if you're dead serious about trading results you can be proud of......then I urge you to be ready at exactly 12:00noon EST/9:00am PST to listen to our presentation as if it were the single most important thing you have ever heard, because it just might be just that.

This is the last time this will be open to the public this year and open enrollment will not be available for some time.

Just visit...."E-Mini Success Formula is LIVE!"

The Aftershock Investor says It's Time to go with Gold

Robert Wiedemer, co author of "The Aftershock Investor" says go with gold. [click here to get your copy on Amazon.com], Wiedemer says investors should stick with gold as the government continues to print money and he has some interesting thoughts on the numerous "bubble pops" we are experiencing right now.



Monday, November 12, 2012

Non-OPEC Oil Supply Outages Remain Above Year Ago Level

How do Hedge Funds Trade the First 30 Minutes the Markets are Open?

The volume of unplanned oil production disruptions among countries not in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) is one of several key measurements of global oil supply security. Unplanned non OPEC oil supply outages during the first 10 months of this year were almost twice the amount experienced in the last three months of 2011.

Global surplus capacity, another key metric of global oil supply security, currently remains relatively tight by historical standards, and is estimated at 2.0 million barrels per day (bbl/d) in October. (The estimate for global surplus capacity does not include additional capacity that may be available in Iran, but which is currently offline due to the impacts of U.S. and European Union (EU) sanctions on Iran's ability to sell its oil.) Tighter global surplus capacity, coupled with an elevated volume of non OPEC supply disruptions, has placed upward price pressure this year on Brent crude, a benchmark for the global oil price.

Graph of oil supply disruptions, as explained in article text

Conflict, tariff disputes, worker strikes, natural disasters, and maintenance related problems were some of the prominent issues that caused several countries to reduce or shut in oil production in 2012 (see chart). As a result, unplanned non-OPEC oil supply outages during the first 10 months of this year averaged almost twice the level of disruptions experienced during the last three months of 2011, which is more representative of historical norms.

Recently, unplanned non-OPEC supply outages have declined, from an average of about 1.1 million bbl/d in both August and September to 0.9 million bbl/d in October. This is mainly due to the return of U.S. production in the Gulf of Mexico, which was temporarily curtailed by Hurricane Isaac in August and September of 2012. Nonetheless, an above normal volume of non OPEC production remains offline due to large outages in Syria and South Sudan, which together accounted for almost two thirds of the total non OPEC unplanned outages in October. Non-OPEC supply outages represented nearly 2% of the total non OPEC supply, which averaged 52.7 million bbl/d in October.

The situation in Syria continues to deteriorate, and its impact on oil prices arguably transcends disrupted volumes in that country, as concerns grow about the risk of regional spillover effects from the conflict. The government of South Sudan ordered oil companies to restart production last month, and production is expected to gradually resume within the next few months. South Sudan has signed an agreement with Sudan on oil export fees and security arrangements; however, some post independence issues such as border demarcation, rights to the disputed Abyei region, and claims for compensation of seized assets still remain unresolved.

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Sunday, November 11, 2012

How do Hedge Funds Trade the First 30 Minutes the Markets are Open?

We have been day trading for years, back to the days when we got excited that we could now use this new technology and fax our orders in. And so much has changed over the years on the technology side. But a lot of things still have not changed one bit. Most importantly is the ability to use market psychology when getting the upper hand on traders and investors on the other side of your trades.

Yes, it's true.....we all can't be winners. There is a losing trade on the other side of every one of your winning trades. And I still, after all these years, believe that most of those losing trades are being placed by retail and professional traders that insist on breaking the rules of Trading 101. The pros know them better then anybody and they still continue to allow their emotions to dictate their trades.

That's why I have partnered with my friend Todd Mitchell in promoting his New 30 Minute E-Mini Breakout Strategy. This is a time tested system that takes your emotion out of the equation and allows you to make your trades in the first 30 minutes that the market is open, then go on with your life. Regardless of news cycles and market reactions. I am buying this for myself, we have traders in our family and our shop that will benefit from the immensely. So should you.

It's free to sign up, watch Todd's video and ask him questions about the program and the way the system works. This is the guy that hedge fund managers are sending their new employees to so they can use the system in their shops. Why wouldn't you take a minute to sign up, read the comments traders are leaving about the program and ask Todd your own questions.

OK, enough of me....I need to get ready for the first 30 minutes of trading on Monday.

See you in the markets,
Ray C. Parrish
President/CEO at The Crude Oil Trader

Just Click Here for "The New 30 Minute E-Mini Breakout Strategy"

ONG: Crude Oil, Natural Gas and Gold Weekly Technical Outlook for Sunday Nov. 11th

 It's Sunday and that means it's time to check in with our friends at Oil N'Gold.com and get their call on commodities this week.......

After some volatility, crude oil dipped further to 84.05 last week before recovering mildly. Initial bias is neutral this week for some sideways trading first. Nonetheless, note that crude oil is still staying inside near term falling channel. As long as 89.22 minor resistance holds, deeper decline is still in favor. Below 84.05 will target 80 psychological level next. Though, we'd expect strong support ahead of 77.28 and bring rebound. Meanwhile, break of 89.22 should indicate short term reversal and target 93.66 resistance and above.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that price actions from 114.83 are a triangle consolidation pattern. Fall from 100.42 is likely the fifth and the last leg of such consolidation. Having said that, downside should be contained above 77.28 and bring an upside breakout eventually. Break of 110.55 will strongly suggest that whole rebound from 33.29 has resumed for above 114.83.

In the long term picture, crude oil is in a long term consolidation pattern from 147.27, with first wave completed at 33.2. The corrective structure of the rise from 33.2 indicates that it's second wave of the consolidation pattern. While it could make another high above 114.83, we'd anticipate strong resistance ahead of 147.24 to bring reversal for the third leg of the consolidation pattern.

Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract 4 Hour, Daily, Weekly and Monthly Charts

Natural gas consolidated around 4 hours 55 EMA last week and outlook remains unchanged. As long as 3.355 support holds, further rally is still expected. Rise fro 2.575 would extend to medium term channel resistance next (now at around 3.88). Break will target 4.0 psychological level. However, considering that it's near to important resistance level, break of 3.355 will indicate near term topping and would bring deeper pull back towards 55 days EMA (now at 3.233).

In the bigger picture, recent developments argued that medium term decline from 6.108 is completed at 1.902 already. It's bit early to confirm but bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD suggests that the down trend from 13.694 (2008 high) is possibly over too. Sustained break of the channel resistance (now at around 3.88) will set the stage for a test on 4.983 key resistance next. Meanwhile, break of 2.575 support will argue that the rebound from 1.902 is over and the medium larger down trend is still in progress for a new low.

In the longer term picture, decisive break of 3.255 resistance will be an important signal of long term bottoming reversal and could at least give a push to 4.983/6.108 resistance zone.

Nymex Natural Gas Continuous Contract 4 Hour, Daily, Weekly and Monthly Charts

The rebound and break of 1727.5 resistance suggests that a short term bottom is formed at 1672.5 in gold. Initial bias is mildly on the upside this week for recovery. But we might see strong resistance ahead of 1798.1 high and bring another decline. Meanwhile, below 1703 minor support will flip bias back to the downside for 50% retracement of 1526.7 to 1798.1 at 1662.4 and below.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1923.7 high are viewed as a medium term consolidation pattern. There is no indication that such consolidation is finished, and more range trading could be seen. In any case, downside of any falling leg should be contained by 1478.3/1577.4 support zone and bring rebound. Meanwhile, break of 1792.7/1804.4 resistance zone will argue that the long term up trend is possibly resuming for a new high above 1923.7.

In the long term picture, with 1478.3 support intact, there is no change in the long term bullish outlook in gold. While some more medium term consolidation cannot be ruled out, we'd anticipate an eventual break of 2000 psychological level in the long run

Comex Gold Continuous Contract 4 Hour, Daily, Weekly and Monthly Charts

Our most popular post of the week "Did the SP500 Finally Bottom?"

Thursday, November 8, 2012

Did the SP500 Finally Bottom?

From our trading partner David A. Banister at Market Trends Forecast.com......

The SP 500 finally caved to match or go a bit lower than the SP 500 futures lows of about 11 days ago in yesterday’s action. The drop to the 1390 area is within our 1386-1400 pivot points for a major wave low pattern that we outlined as far back as September 25th for our subscribers.

Our work centers around sentiment and crowd behavior, the headlines are of interest but only tell you the psychology of the publishing arms or talking heads at the time. Often headlines can be negative and the market climbs, or positive and the market is dropping. So the key for our work is figuring out where we are in the sentiment patterns of the crowd, and then to anticipate the pivots ahead of time and invest accordingly.

In fact, in just 24 hours or so we had a 43 point SP 500 drop… this is interesting because the same thing happened at the June 2012 lows as well. Back then we had outlined pivots in the 1250-1270 areas as likely lows, and the market ended up bottoming at 1267. This bottom area yesterday fits within pivots we were able to anticipate 7 weeks ago, without any knowledge of the election or other headlines around the world.

Often, major washout days like yesterday centering around major news (Election) can create the final panic sell-off to complete a wave pattern of negative sentiment to the downside and then reverse the markets higher in new bullish pattern. To be sure, there are many sentiment headwinds like the Fiscal Cliff and more in the coming weeks…but markets tend to price all that in ahead of time right?

At yesterdays lows the market seems to have completed all requirements for a C wave of an ABC complicated decline from the 1474 SP 500 highs and so far an 8 Fibonacci week correction period.

What we expect is a rally now and again, we need to get back up and over 1423-1427 pivots this time and hold more than 24 hours, but the odds of a rally are now at 75% from here. IF we fail to hold the 1388 pivots, then the next levels are 1372 and 1363 to watch.

Bottom Line? Most metrics have been met for a wave pattern low, (Whether this be wave 4 or wave 2 doesnt much matter just yet) and the market now has a chance to start a wave 5 or wave 3 rally to the upside. Lets watch 1388 areas to hold first, then we will watch 1403, then 1423-1427 pivots to clear. We are neutral to bullish now after this washout

Back on Sept 25th we did a chart forecasting a drop to 1395-1400 as likely before the downtrend would end, now let’s see if the market can get some legs here. We have included that old chart here to show you how crowds are fairly predictable in their behavioral patterns in advance.

SP500 - SPX - SPY Bottom

Consider joining us for free weekly reports, or you can get a subscription discount and daily reports at Market Trends Forecast.com

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Wednesday, November 7, 2012

Post Election Trading Made Simple

Our trading partner Chris Vermeulen gives us his take on trading the post election markets.......

Over the past two months shares of gold (GLD) and Apple (AAPL) have had a sizable bite taken out of their share price. Active traders along with the longer term investors have had a wild ride this fall watching these investments slide to multi month lows. The big question is when will gold and apple shares bounce?

Here we are again with another election behind us and Barack Obama in the White House again. Many think this means four years of the same thing… Printing, Inflation and higher stock prices.

Is this good or bad for Americans or the world for that matter? I doubt it, but who really knows and who cares because there is nothing anyone can do about it now. So buckle up your seat belt and focus on trading and investing with major trend both within the United States and abroad using exchange traded funds.

Currently the broad stock market and commodities are in a full blown bull market so the focus should be to buy the dips until proven wrong. Here are some charts showing the important breakout levels for Apple, metals, oil and key indexes like the Russell 2000.....Check out "Post-Election Trading Made Simple"

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Another Layer of Bureaucracy for Oil and Gas Exploration in the US?

On May 11, 2012, the U.S. Bureau of Land Management (BLM) published proposed regulations governing "Oil and Gas; Well Stimulation, Including Hydraulic Fracturing, on Federal and Indian Lands." BLM is a latecomer to this party. Its belated meddling lacks practical or economic justification. Instead, the proposed BLM rule would drive oil and gas developers off federal and tribal lands. Complying with the rules is too complicated and costly. Producers can realize a much faster and much better return on their capital investment by developing oil and gas reserves on adjoining private lands.

Federal and tribal lands hold large reserves of oil and natural gas. At a time when the United States desperately needs to move toward, not away from, energy independence, it makes no sense to let bureaucratic meddling effectively place these valuable domestic reserves out of reach. The problems with BLM's approach are myriad. BLM Misses the Mark

First, a central, federal, "one size fits all" approach does not work. The reserves that the oil and gas industry wants to access using hydraulic fracturing occur in areas with different geographic, topographic, hydrological, population, precipitation and umpteen other characteristics. The oil and gas deposits are found at different depths; the water table is at different depths. The surface and subsurface vary dramatically, ranging from the Marcellus Shale Formation in the Northeast to the San Juan Basin in the Southwest. States and tribes have long ago stepped up to the plate with sensible regulations suitable to their individual conditions. They are way ahead of BLM.

Second, even if states and tribes did not already have this under control, BLM's proposed regulations are inappropriate. The BLM regs are based on inaccurate assumptions, flawed economics and a perceived but actually nonexistent need.....

Read the entire article "Another Layer of Bureaucracy for Oil and Gas Exploration in the US"

Discover the Little Known Strategies, Tips and Ideas for Profiting in Today's Markets.....

Monday, November 5, 2012

Why E-Minis Are One of Our Favorite Markets

We here at the Crude Oil Trader don't talk about E-Mini trading a lot, but there's a reason why the E-Mini futures are one of our favorite markets to trade.....

They're just so darn consistent, the opportunities are easy to spot, and the potential for making daily income is unlike any market we've ever seen!

The problem is most people approach the E-Minis all wrong....

Well, that's about to change....

You'll see what we mean inside of the free video presentation our trading partner Todd Mitchell created for you here.

Not only will you discover the real reason why so many traders use the E-Minis to make money, but he shows you how you can start taking advantage of these opportunities regardless of how large or small your trading account is.

Access is limited [really, no kidding] and that's why we don't intend to leave this video up for long, so please be sure to watch it today!

In this video Todd will also teach you the 3 times of day that offer the most profitable trading opportunities (and when you want to stay out of the market!), how to pull in profits without struggle, a 4 - step sequence to boost your trading profits immediately, and a lot more.

This could be the game changer you are looking for...Click here to watch the video.

Happy trading and we'll see you in the markets!

Ray C. Parrish
President/CEO at The Crude Oil Trader

Sunday, November 4, 2012

The Election Cycle – What to Expect in Stocks & Bond Prices

By: Chris Vermeulen of The Gold & Oil Guy.com.......

It is that time in the presidential cycle that gets everyone emotional and concerned with the future outlook of the United States. While everyone has their opinion on whom they think is best for America, I promised myself a long time ago to keep my thoughts to myself for two key reasons. ONE: only 50% of Americans will agree with me J, and TWO: I am Canadian so I do not experience what Americans go through on a daily basis.

My thinking is if Obama wins then we will see Quantitative Easing continue. And with the recent positive economic numbers on Friday it should give some confidence to investors that things are SLOWLY stabilizing (Bullish for Stocks). But, if Romney wins then we could see Quantitative Easing be cut or eliminated which is obviously bad for equities.

So, let’s just jump into the charts of what I feel will unfold in the next few days and months.

Using the season chart of the four year election cycle we can see what the Dow Jones Index has done in past election periods. Obviously every market environment is drastically different in each situation but overall we see stronger stock price. This is naturally a very emotional time for investors but once the election is finished most individuals become more confident simply because there is a leader that has four years to make things better and there is nothing they can do about it now and the campaigning and debating is over.

Dow Stocks Election Cycle Trading

DIA – Dow Jones Industrial Average – Daily Chart:

Looking at the chart of Dow DIA Index fund you can see a 5-6 month cycle in the market which has a positive skew. Just so you understand what a positive skew is I will explain.

Positive Skew is when the market is trending up making a series of higher highs and higher lows. Because there are naturally more buyers during a bull market each cycle upswing lasts longer then when the cycle down downswing. So you get longer rallies which sends your secondary indicators (stochastics, volatility, put/call ratios, advance decline line etc…) in the overbought levels for extended periods of time. Those trying to pick a top continually get their head handed to them. The focus must be on buying the pullbacks. Keep in mind volatility is higher which meaning risk per trade is higher. Overall in the long run you stand a much higher chance of making money trading with the trend than trying counter trend trades (picking a top).

So as you can see below it looks like the stock market will be trying to put in the bottom over the next week or two which falls in line with our election cycle. It is very important to know that during intermediate cycle lows is where some of the biggest drops take place. These sharp drops are what is needed to cleanse the market one last time to shake as many traders with tight stops out of the market before it reverses and starts the next rally. I would like to see a 1-3 day market sell off as that would be the signature bottoming pattern I like to buy.

DIA Exchange Traded Fund Trading

Bond Prices – Moving Against the Norm…..

Bond investors are some of the most conservative people in the market. They do not like to take risks so they dump their money into bonds to make a tiny profit in exchange for low risk (volatility). The nature of these investors put more money into bonds as we enter the election because they are nervous about not knowing who will be in control of the country.

After the election finished some money flows out of bonds and into stocks because there is now a president and direction for the country. Generally come the new year investors move to bonds as the safe haven as they try to figure out what their game plan is for new year.

So looking forward to this week and the next 2 months I would not be surprised to see bond prices rise or trade sideways while stocks move higher. This analysis is based on Obama winning. If Romney wins then I feel bonds will rally much more and stocks could sell off.

Bond Sentiment Election Cycle Trading

TLT Bond Exchange Traded Fund – Daily Chart:

Here is a chart of 20+ year bonds showing a possible reversal to the upside that could trigger as soon as next week. This chart is forward looking 1 – 2 weeks. Overall the trend remains down but if Romney wins I feel bonds breakout above the red resistance levels and trigger a new uptrend.

Bond TLT Exchange Traded Fund Trading

Election Year Trading Cycle Conclusion:

Next week is going to be very interesting to watch unfold. I generally do not like to trade or invest before news of this magnitude so trade smaller sizes if you do as price action could be wild.

Get my Daily Trading Analysis & Trade Setups at The Gold & Oil Guy.com

Chris Vermeulen

EIA Weekly Natural Gas Report

Natural gas prices flattened out this week (Wednesday to Wednesday) following last week’s increases. The Henry Hub closed at $3.50 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) yesterday, up 7 cents per MMBtu for the week, after increasing last week by 19 cents per MMBtu. Prices mostly rose across the board, with the exception of general declines in the Rocky Mountain region and some declines in California.

The December 2012 New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) decreased, from $3.776 per MMBtu last Wednesday to $3.692 per MMBtu yesterday. The November contract expired on October 29 at $3.471 per MMBtu.

Working natural gas in storage increased last week to 3,908 Bcf as of Friday, October 26, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (WNGSR). An implied storage increase of 65 Bcf for the week moved storage levels 136 Bcf above year-ago levels.

The Baker Hughes Incorporated natural gas rotary rig count fell by 11 to 416 active units on the week ending October 26. The oil-directed rig count decreased by 2 to 1,408 units.

Don't miss our most popular post this week "Stocks Overbought or Oversold? Where to Put Your Stops"

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Saturday, November 3, 2012

ONG: Crude Oil, Natural Gas and Gold Weekly Technical Outlook for Saturday Nov. 3rd

Crude oil dropped further last week and breached mentioned 61.8% retracement of 77.28 to 100.42 at 86.12 as expected. Deeper decline is still in favor in near term. But as noted before, we'd expect strong support ahead of 77.28 support and bring rebound. So focus will be on reversal sign as the current decline extends. On the upside, above 87.42 resistance will indicate short term reversal and will turn bias back to the upside for 93.66 resistance and above first.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that price actions from 114.83 are a triangle consolidation pattern. Fall from 100.42 is likely the fifth and the last leg of such consolidation. Having said that, downside should be contained above 77.28 and bring an upside breakout eventually. Break of 110.55 will strongly suggest that whole rebound from 33.29 has resumed for above 114.83.

In the long term picture, crude oil is in a long term consolidation pattern from 147.27, with first wave completed at 33.2. The corrective structure of the rise from 33.2 indicates that it's second wave of the consolidation pattern. While it could make another high above 114.83, we'd anticipate strong resistance ahead of 147.24 to bring reversal for the third leg of the consolidation pattern.

Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract 4 Hour, Daily, Weekly and Monthly Charts

Near term outlook in natural gas stays bullish as long as 3.355 support holds even though upside momentum is not too convincing. Current rally from 2.575 should extend further towards medium term channel resistance next (now at around 3.92). Break will target 4.0 psychological level. However, considering that it's near to important resistance level, break of 3.355 will indicate near term topping and would bring deeper pull back towards 55 days EMA (now at 3.164).

In the bigger picture, recent developments argued that medium term decline from 6.108 is completed at 1.902 already. It's bit early to confirm but bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD suggests that the down trend from 13.694 (2008 high) is possibly over too. Sustained break of the channel resistance (now at around 3.92) will set the stage for a test on 4.983 key resistance next. Meanwhile, break of 2.575 support will argue that the rebound from 1.902 is over and the medium larger down trend is still in progress for a new low.

In the longer term picture, decisive break of 3.255 resistance will be an important signal of long term bottoming reversal and could at least give a push to 4.983/6.108 resistance zone.

Nymex Natural Gas Continuous Contract 4 Hour, Daily, Weekly and Monthly Charts

Gold's fall from 1798.1 continued last week and broke mentioned 38.2% retracement of 1526.7 to 1798.1 at 1694.4 as expected. Near term outlook stays bearish as long as 1727.5 resistance holds. Current decline should target 61.8% retracement at 1630.4 and below.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1923.7 high are viewed as a medium term consolidation pattern. There is no indication that such consolidation is finished, and more range trading could be seen. In any case, downside of any falling leg should be contained by 1478.3/1577.4 support zone and bring rebound. Meanwhile, break of 1792.7/1804.4 resistance zone will argue that the long term up trend is possibly resuming for a new high above 1923.7.

In the long term picture, with 1478.3 support intact, there is no change in the long term bullish outlook in gold. While some more medium term consolidation cannot be ruled out, we'd anticipate an eventual break of 2000 psychological level in the long run

Comex Gold Continuous Contract 4 Hour, Daily, Weekly and Monthly Charts

Don't miss our most popular post this week "Stocks Overbought or Oversold? Where to Put Your Stops"

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Thursday, November 1, 2012

Stocks Overbought or Oversold? Where to Put Your Stops

We did see a nice pop this morning breaking some previous pivot highs from last week and volume looks strong. Long story short… stocks are overbought here very similar to the past two highs as seen in the chart below. The big question from here is what to do now? Well, I wanna see some bullish patterns and volume over the next 12-48 hours if we are going to be looking to get long for an intermediate rally that lasts several weeks taking the indexes to new highs.

Take a look at the 10 minute intraday chart of the past fiveOPEN trading sessions (Wed, Thurs, Fri, Wed, Today) as notice how choppy price has been…. It’s shaking traders up who do not know how to adjust their trading strategy during rising volatility and mixed market cycles. This is something I will be teaching in the near future using my own eSignal trading indicators and Signals as it has been CRUCIAL in the past 3 year to profit from and minimize losses.

SPY Index Trading - Custom eSignal Indicator

Daily Chart of my Cycles & Sentiment Indicator of the SPY:

eSignal Indicator Signals


Precious metals are not participating today and even gold stocks are trading lower… Seems people are really focused on pure risk on (equities) today.

Yesterday we saw utilities rally as fear worked its way into the market. Well today utilities (XLU) is trading lower. Interesting how the market move and why I love them so much…

Last week I mention how RIMM looked ready for a major breakout and rally. This week it has jumped over 12% which is exciting. The next to pop looks like KOL coal ETF.

Get my Daily Trading Analysis & Trade Setups at The Gold & Oil Guy.com

Chris Vermeulen



Chris Vermeulen is Founder of the popular trading analysis website The Gold & Oil Guy.com. There he shares his highly successful, low risk trade ideas. Since 2001 Chris has been a leader in teaching others to skillfully trade Currencies, Stock Indices, Bonds, Metals, Energies, Commodities, and Exchange Traded Funds.

Don't miss our WTI Crude Oil & Oil Stocks Seasonality & Year End Outlook

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