Thursday, August 8, 2013

Crude Oil Bulls Continue to Fade Despite Positive News out of China

The U.S. stock indexes closed firmer today. The stock index bulls still have the solid overall near term technical advantage as prices hover not far below the recent for the move highs. Chinese economic data released overnight was bullish for most of the market place and especially for the raw commodity sector. China exports were up a much higher than expected 5.1% year on year in July, compared to a 3.1% drop in June.

Chinese imports rose by a much higher than expected 11%, year on year. The European Central Bank released a forecast Thursday that shows it expects Euro zone economic growth to contract by 0.6% in 2013, citing weak consumer demand worldwide. The ECB forecast Euro zone growth in 2014 at up 0.9%. The ECB report comes out at a time when recent Euro zone economic data has shown generally slight improvement.

September Nymex crude oil closed down $0.87 at $103.49 today. Prices closed near mid range today on more profit taking and weak long liquidation. Bulls still have the overall near term technical advantage but are fading. If prices back off on Friday then a bearish double top reversal pattern would be confirmed on the daily chart.

September natural gas closed up 6.9 cents at $3.315 today. Prices closed near the session high on short covering after hitting a fresh 13 1/2 month low early on today. The nat gas bears have the solid near term technical advantage, but may now be exhausted following the recent selling pressure. Prices are in a steep three month old downtrend on the daily bar chart.

December gold futures closed up $24.70 an ounce at $1,310.00 today. Prices closed nearer the session high and saw heavy short covering and some fresh bargain hunting. A lower U.S. dollar index also boosted the gold market again today. Gold bears still have the overall near term technical advantage. However, a bullish weekly high close on Friday would give the bulls some fresh upside near term technical momentum.

September silver futures closed up $0.682 an ounce at $20.19 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and closed at a two week high close. Bears still have the near term technical advantage. A weaker U.S. dollar index today boosted the silver bulls.

September coffee closed up 65 points at 121.70 cents today. Prices closed near mid range today and saw more short covering in a bear market. The coffee bears still have the solid overall near term technical advantage.

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