Monday, August 5, 2013

Crude oil falls as most analyst anticipate global slowdown

September crude oil closed lower on Monday as it consolidated some of last week's rally. The mid range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. Closes above July's high crossing at 108.93 would renew this summer's rally while opening the door for a possible test of weekly resistance crossing at 110.55 later this summer. Closes below last Tuesday's low crossing at 102.67 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is July's high crossing at 108.93. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 110.55. First support is last Tuesday's low crossing at 102.67. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the April-July rally crossing at 100.27.

The September S&P 500 closed slightly lower on Friday as it consolidated some of Thursday's rally. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging and are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If September extends the rally off June's low, upside targets will now be hard to project with the index trading into uncharted territory. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 1677.36 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 1703.40. Second resistance is unknown with September trading into uncharted territory. First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1677.36. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 1670.50.

September Henry natural gas closed lower on Monday as it extends the decline off May's high. The mid range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If September extends this year's decline, weekly support crossing at 3.178 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.596 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 3.508. Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.596. First support is today's low crossing at 3.309. Second support is weekly support crossing at 3.178.

October gold closed lower on Monday. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that a short term top might be in or is near. Closes below last Friday's low crossing at 1282.50 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. If October renews the rally off June's low, the reaction high crossing at 1395.20 is the next upside target. First resistance is October's high crossing at 1348.00. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1395.20. First support is last Friday's low crossing at 1282.50. Second support is July's low crossing at 1208.50.

And favorite trade for 2013....September coffee closed higher due to short covering on Monday as it consolidated some of the decline off July's high. The mid range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 122.36 would confirm that a short term low has been posted.

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