Saturday, August 3, 2013

Crude oil post a downside reversal on Friday.....Is this all the bulls have for summer 2013

September crude oil posted a downside reversal on Friday after failing to take out July's high crossing at 108.93. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. Closes above July's high crossing at 108.93 would renew this summer's rally while opening the door for a possible test of weekly resistance crossing at 110.55 later this summer. Closes below Tuesday's low crossing at 102.67 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is July's high crossing at 108.93. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 110.55. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 102.67. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the April-July rally crossing at 100.27.

The September S&P 500 closed slightly lower on Friday as it consolidated some of Thursday's rally. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging and are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If September extends the rally off June's low, upside targets will now be hard to project with the index trading into uncharted territory. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 1677.36 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 1703.40. Second resistance is unknown with September trading into uncharted territory. First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1677.36. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 1670.50.

October gold closed lower on Friday. A short covering rally tempered early session losses and the high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that a short term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 1297.40 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. If October renews the rally off June's low, the reaction high crossing at 1395.20 is the next upside target. First resistance is October's high crossing at 1348.00. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1395.20. First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1297.40. Second support is July's low crossing at 1208.50.

September Henry natural gas closed lower on Friday as it extends the decline off May's high. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If September extends the aforementioned decline, the June 2012 low crossing at 3.294 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.616 would confirm that a short term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.616. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 3.833. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 3.341. Second support is the June 2012 low crossing at 3.294.

And of course....our new favorite trade. September coffee closed higher due to short covering on Friday as it consolidated some of the decline off July's high. The high range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 122.55 would confirm that a short term low has been posted.

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