Monday, August 19, 2013

Markets Drop for a Fourth Day on Bond Price and Bank Worries

The September S&P 500 closed lower on Monday and below the 38% retracement level of the June-August rally crossing at 1647.42 as it extended this month's decline. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If September extends the decline off August's high, the 50% retracement level of the June-August rally crossing at 1629.45 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 1683.59 would confirm that a short term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1683.49. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 1705.00. First support is today's low crossing at 1646.00. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the June-August rally crossing at 1629.45.

September crude oil closed lower due to profit taking on Monday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Tuesday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. Closes above July's high crossing at 108.93 would renew this summer's rally while opening the door for a possible test of weekly resistance crossing at 110.55 later this summer. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 102.22 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is July's high crossing at 108.93. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 110.55. First support is the reaction low crossing at 102.22. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the April-July rally crossing at 100.27.

October gold closed lower due to profit taking on Monday as it consolidated some of the rally off June's low. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If October extends the aforementioned rally, June's high crossing at 1424.00 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 1323.60 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 1382.40. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 1424.00. First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1323.60. Second resistance is the reaction low crossing at 1272.10.

September Henry natural gas closed higher on Monday and above the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.416 confirming that a short term low has been posted. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If September extends today's rally, the 38% retracement level of the May-August decline crossing at 3.662 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10 day moving average crossing at 3.327 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 3.501. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the May-August decline crossing at 3.662. First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 3.327. Second support is August's low crossing at 3.129.

And of course we can't leave out coffee anymore. September coffee closed lower on Monday and the low range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If September renews this month's rally, the reaction high crossing at 126.50 is the next upside target.

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