Tuesday, September 17, 2013

COT Market Summary for Tuesday Sept. 17th - Crude Oil, Natural Gas, SP 500 and Gold

October crude oil closed lower on Tuesday. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. Today's closes below last Tuesday's low crossing at 106.39 confirms that a short term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near term. Closes above the 10 day moving average crossing at 107.93 would temper the near term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 107.93. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 110.70. First support is the reaction low crossing at 104.21. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the April-August rally crossing at 102.43.

October Henry natural gas closed slightly lower due to light profit taking on Tuesday. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If October extends the rally off August's low, the 50% retracement level of the May-August decline crossing at 3.842 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.598 would confirm that a short term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near term. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the May-August decline crossing at 3.841. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the May-August decline crossing at 4.003. First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.598. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 3.483.

The December S&P 500 closed higher on Tuesday and the high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If December extends the rally off August's low, weekly resistance crossing at 1705.00 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 1653.39 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 1702.80. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 1705.00. First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 1670.96. Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1653.39.

October gold closed lower on Tuesday and the low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If October extends this month's decline, August's low crossing at 1272.10 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 1374.40 would temper the near term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1374.40. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 1432.90. First support is Monday's low crossing at 1302.90. Second resistance is August's low crossing at 1272.10.

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