Tuesday, September 24, 2013

COT Market Summary for Tuesday Sept. 24th - Crude Oil, Natural Gas, SP 500, Gold and Coffee

November crude oil closed lower on Tuesday extending this month's decline. A short covering rebound tempered early session losses and the high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If November extends the decline off August's high, the 38% retracement level of the April-August rally crossing at 102.43 is the next downside target. Multiple closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 106.86 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 106.86. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 110.70. First support is the 38% retracement level of the April-August rally crossing at 102.43. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the April-August rally crossing at 98.71.

October Henry natural gas closed sharply lower on Tuesday as it extends the decline off this month's high. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If October extends this week's decline, the reaction low crossing at 3.418 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10 day moving average crossing at 3.659 would confirm that a short term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 3.659. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the May-August decline crossing at 3.841. First support is the reaction low crossing at 3.418. Second support is April's low crossing at 3.154.

The December S&P 500 closed higher on Tuesday. Today's rally ended a three day decline following comments by President Obama that eased concerns over Middle East tensions. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bearish signaling that a short term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 1668.47 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. If December renews the rally off August's low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. First resistance is last Thursday's high crossing at 1726.50. Second resistance is unknown now that December is trading into uncharted territory. First support is gap support crossing at 1702.80. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1668.47.

October gold closed lower on Tuesday and the mid range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 1362.30 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. If October renews the decline off August's high, August's low crossing at 1272.10 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1362.30. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 1432.90. First support is last Wednesday's low crossing at 1281.80. Second resistance is August's low crossing at 1272.10.

And we haven't given up yet....December coffee closed higher due to short covering on Tuesday. The high range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 12.10 would confirm that a low has been posted. If December extends this summer's decline, monthly support crossing at 10.21 is the next downside target.

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