Sunday, September 8, 2013

COT Week Ending Market Summary - Crude Oil, Natural Gas, SP 500, Gold & Coffee

October crude oil closed higher on Friday and is poised to extend the rally off April's low. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If October renews this summer's rally, weekly resistance crossing at 114.83 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 107.08 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is last Wednesday's high crossing at 112.24. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 114.83. First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 107.08. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 103.50.

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October Henry natural gas closed lower on Friday confirming Thursday's key reversal down. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.500 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. If October renews the rally off August's low, the 50% retracement level of the May-August decline crossing at 3.842 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the May-August decline crossing at 3.680. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the May-August decline crossing at 3.842. First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.500. Second support is August's low crossing at 3.154.

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The September S&P 500 closed higher on Friday and above the 20 day moving average crossing at 1654.38 confirming that a short term low has been posted. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If September extends the rally off August's low, the reaction high crossing at 1667.00 is the next upside target. If September renews the decline off August's high, the 62% retracement level of the June-August rally crossing at 1611.47 is the next downside target. First resistance is today's high crossing at 1663.80. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1667.00. First support is August's low crossing at 1625.00. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the June-August rally crossing at 1611.47.

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October gold closed higher due to short covering on Friday. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If October extends this week's decline, the reaction low crossing at 1351.60 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10 day moving average crossing at 1399.90 would temper the near term bearish outlook. First resistance is last Wednesday's high crossing at 1432.90. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 1489.00. First support is the reaction low crossing at 1351.60. Second resistance is August's low crossing at 1272.10.

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And you we can't help ourselves.....Our "lowly" September coffee closed higher on Friday as it consolidated some of this week's decline. The mid range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If September extends this summer's decline, monthly support crossing at 10.21 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 116.24 would confirm that a low has been posted.

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