Sunday, October 6, 2013

Weekly Commodities Recap with Mike Seery - Gold, Silver, Coffee, Sugar,

It's time for our weekly commodities market recap with our trading partner Mike Seery......

The gold market in the December contract sold off $30 dollars an ounce this week at 1,316 as the U.S dollar hit a fresh 10 month low not influencing gold prices just yet. Gold made a new 10 week low on the night session this week trading as low as 1,276 then rallied sharply as investors came rushing back into this market and I am still recommending to sick on the sidelines because of this choppy pattern where gold is down $40 dollars and the next day its up $30 but I still do think prices look weak and I think they still could re-test the summer lows around 1,200. If you are short the futures market in the December contract I would place my stop loss at 1,354 which was Mondays high minimizing your risk in case the trend changes. This market is very volatile with high risk so make sure you under trade meaning don’t lose more than 2% of your account balance on any given trade. TREND: LOWER –CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT

Silver futures ended down 12 cents for the week in the December contract at 21.72 an ounce and in my opinion the panic selling on October 1st for no reason might have created a spike low on the daily charts as the U.S dollar broke 80 for the 1st time in 10 months. As I’ve stated in many previous blogs I think investors should take advantage of big down days because silver has a lot of bullish fundamentals which in the long run could push prices higher, however gold still looks weak to me as money seems to be going into the stock market which was sharply higher today and out of gold lately which is also keeping a lid on silver prices here in the short term. The silver market is very sensitive to a strong or weak dollar and if you do some homework and look at some historical charts you will see a rising silver market when the U.S dollar declines. TREND: NEUTRAL–CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT

Sugar futures settled last Friday at 17.74 a pound going out today at 18.45 continuing its bullish trend hitting a 5 1/2 month high still trading above its 20 and 100 day moving average. Prices tumbled about 60 points last Friday just missing the 10 day low but then on Monday prices rallied about 60 points so if you’re still in this market I would still keep my stop below the 10 day low as prices have come alive to the upside as volatility has come back into this market. Sugar prices went up 4 straight days before profit taking took place finishing down 5 points at 18.48 and I think the next major resistance is around 19/19.50 as the U.S dollar is hitting 10 month lows which is starting to spur some commodity prices higher especially sugar. TREND: HIGHER –CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT

Coffee futures this week continued their sideways trading action settling last Friday at 113.70 basically unchanged for the trading week settling at 114.15 a pound in the December contract and at this time there is very little interest in this market at this point as volatility is as low as I can ever remember historically. Coffee prices are right at 4 ½ year lows as huge crops around the world including Vietnam have put ample supplies onto the market which is why prices are so depressed at this time. If you are interested in getting long the coffee market I would look at call options at least 6 months out and buy them at the money limiting your risk to what the premium costs because premiums are historically cheap due to low volatility. The volatility in coffee at the present time is very small and I have been following coffee for 20 years and I believe volatility is going to come back into this sleeping giant and that usually means prices rise as interest comes back into the market. If you’re a longer term investor I would take advantage of coffee if prices dropped down into the 110 area remembering that coffee was trading at 300 just 3 years ago when supplies were much lower. TREND: LOWER –CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT

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