Thursday, January 9, 2014

Mid Week Market Summary - Crude Oil, Natural Gas, Gold, SP 500 and Coffee

Crude oil closed lower on Wednesday as it extended the decline off December's high. Today's low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible. If February extends the aforementioned decline, November's low crossing at 92.10 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 97.37 are needed to temper the near term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 97.37. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 100.75. First support is today's low crossing at 92.26. Second support is November's low crossing at 92.10.

Natural gas closed sharply lower on Wednesday. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If February extends the decline off December's high, the 38% retracement level of the November-December rally crossing at 4.158 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.353 would temper the near term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.353. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 4.532. First support is last Friday's low crossing at 4.206. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the November-December rally crossing at 4.158.

The March S&P 500 closed slightly higher on Wednesday as it consolidated some of the decline off December's high. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 1810.91 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. If March renews 2013's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. First resistance is December's high crossing at 1846.50. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1810.91. Second support is December's low crossing at 1755.00.

Gold closed lower on Wednesday as it consolidated some of the rally off December's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If April extends the aforementioned rally, December's high crossing at 1266.70 is the next upside target. If April renews the decline off August's high, weekly support crossing at 1179.40 is the next downside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 1248.20. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 1266.70. First support is December's low crossing at 1182.30. Second support is weekly support crossing at 1179.40.

Coffee closed higher on Wednesday and remains poised to extend the rally off November's low. The high range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If March extends the aforementioned rally, September's high crossing at 12.40 is the next upside target. Closes below last Thursday's low crossing at 11.02 would confirm that a short term top has been posted.

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