Sunday, March 23, 2014
Weekly Futures Recap With Mike Seery for week ending March 21st
CHART STRUCTURE: SOLID
Coffee futures in New York finished lower for the 6th consecutive trading session finishing lower by about 2800 points for the trading week hitting a 4 week low in today’s trade and if you followed my recommendation in yesterday’s blog when prices hit 181 which was the 10 day low I was recommending to take profits and move on as this market remains neutral at this time so sit on the sidelines and wait for better chart pattern to develop. Prices are trading below their 20 day but above their 100 day moving average telling you the trend is mixed and as I stated yesterday I believe a possible good entry to get long this market is around 160 level which is about the 50% retracement from recent lows to highs as I don’t believe this bull market is over it was just overextended to the upside. I keep in contact with several Brazilian coffee producers and they still believe that the crop is devastated and prices eventually will move higher so look for a possible entry point below the market as prices still remain weak finishing down over 300 points this Friday afternoon right near session lows.
CHART STRUCTURE: POOR
Sugar futures were down about 35 points this week hitting a 4 week low as prices continue to the downside and I still remain neutral this market as I’m waiting to see better chart structure as the trend currently is mixed so look for some other commodity that has a strong trend and just keep an eye on sugar at this time. The 50% retracement from contract lows of around 15.00 to the recent 4 month highs that were hit earlier in the month was 18.50 which is about 350 points divided by 2 equaling 175 points so currently the 50% retracement is at about 16.75 which is just an eyelash away so if you’re looking at possibly getting long this market look to buy around that level. Sugar futures are trading far below their 20 day and right at the 100 day moving average as the next support levels are all the way down at 16.00.
CHART STRUCTURE: SOLID
The 10 year notes in Chicago this week sold off sharply due to the fact of Janet Yellen’s testimony stating that bond purchases that the Federal Reserve has been doing for several years now will come to an end in September with the possibility of rates rising 6 months after that date sending the yield on the 10 year note to 2.77% & in my opinion I think the bond market has started their bearish trend. Prices are trading below their 20 and 100 day moving average hitting an 8 week low and I’m recommending selling the futures contract at today’s price placing your stop above the 10 day high at 125 risking around $2,000 per contract as the trend has turned bearish and I think this could be a special situation as interest rates look to finally start to rise after years of record low rates.
CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT
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