Sunday, November 23, 2014

Week Ending Crude Oil, Gold and Coffee Markets Summary for Friday November 21st

Our trading partner Mike Seery brings us his weekly call on crude oil, gold and coffee. Could crude oil really be headed lower? If king dollar gets it's way it just might be headed much lower. Here's what Mike has to say about this and other futures commodity trades.

Crude oil futures are up 30 cents in the January contract trading higher for the 2nd consecutive trading session as a short term bottom may have been placed as China cut their interest rate today sending crude oil sharply higher in early trade trading as high as 77.82 a barrel before retracing while currently trading at 76.22 if you are still short this market I would place my stop above the 10 day high which in Monday’s trade will come down to 77.92 risking around 170 points or $1,700 per contract. The U.S dollar was sharply higher and that’s generally very bearish the commodity markets, however with China cutting their interest rate that combated the negativity coming out of the Euro currency causing short covering across the board as many of the commodities including energies, metals, and the grain sector were all higher today but continue to place your stop loss at that level and see what Monday’s trade brings. The fundamentals in oil still remain very bearish as Saudi Arabia has not cut production & the United States continues its torrid pace of production flooding the world market so even if you are stopped out on this trade sit on the sidelines and wait for another trend to develop as I’m not totally convinced that lower prices aren’t ahead in 2015. Crude oil futures are still trading slightly below their 20 but still far below their 100 day moving average telling you the trend is still to the downside and if the U.S dollar continues to move higher that eventually will put pressure on prices once again in my opinion but on a day to day basis anything can occur.

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As I talked about in yesterday’s blog I am telling investors to remain neutral as I do believe gold prices will remain choppy to lower for the rest of 2014 as prices rallied $9 to trade around $1,200 per ounce as extreme volatility has entered this market and I think today’s price action was very impressive due to the fact that the U.S dollar was up over 50 points which is generally very bearish precious metals, however China cut their interest rate pushing many commodities prices higher. Gold futures are trading above their 20 but below their 100 day moving average moving higher despite the fact that the ECB looks like they’re going to utilize more stimulus which is remarkable in my opinion as I do think if the U.S dollar continues to move higher eventually that will be very bearish gold prices so sit on the sidelines as you do not want to trade a choppy market. This market is extremely volatile with big up price swings and down swings so avoid and move on to a trendy market like the S&P 500. Volatility in gold is amazing lately with many days of a $30 – $50 trading range which is incredible going into the holiday season, however if you remember last year gold’s low was near December 31st and we opened up the next day around $20 higher and I think the same thing will happen because of the fact that stock sales which are losers are sold to offset winning trades come the month of December so I still look for another leg down but still would sit on the sidelines at the current time. TREND: NEUTRAL

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Coffee futures in the March contract sold off around 600 for the trading week currently trading at 190.70 in New York with high volatility in the last week with several sharply higher and lower trading sessions as I am advising investors to stay away from this market as the trend is extremely choppy and difficult to trade successfully in my opinion. Coffee prices are trading right at their 20 & 100 day moving average telling you that the trend is neutral as this volatility will remain for months to come as weather in Brazil is very fickle on a week to week basis as drought concerns are still in the back of traders’ minds as the weather currently is positive for production. The chart structure in coffee presently is very poor as I like to trade markets with tight chart structure which allows you to place tighter stop losses lowering monetary risk in my opinion. TREND: MIXED

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