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Saturday, January 31, 2015

Weekly Crude Oil and Gold Futures Recap with Mike Seery

It's time for our weekly commodity futures recap with our trading partner Mike Seery. He has been Senior Analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets. And frequently appears on multiple business networks including Bloomberg news, Fox Business, CNBC Worldwide, CNN Business, and Bloomberg TV. He is also a guest on First Business, which is a national and internationally syndicated business show.

Crude oil futures in the March contract were up $3 a barrel having one of its best days in months trading at 47.50 a barrel and trading above its 20 day moving average for the 1st time in months while still below its 100 day moving average and looks like a possible bottom could be in place. If you’re still short this market I strongly suggest you place stop loss at the 10 day high which currently stands at 49.20 risking $1.80 from today’s price levels.

Crude oil futures settled last Friday at 45.59 currently trading at 47.50 up about $2 as prices actually hit new lows in yesterday’s trade as there are rumors about the new Saudi Arabian King stirring up some controversy possibly cutting production, however I truly believe that we just saw massive short covering but stick to the rules and keep your stop at the proper level and if you are stopped out move on and look at another market that is trending.

All markets come to an end that’s just the fact as I’ve seen many people reenter the market several times after having a successful run only to give back all their profits so if you are stopped out move on as there are many other markets to look at the current time as this was one of the best trends in recent memory but sometimes the best thing to do is to do nothing.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Excellent

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Gold futures in the April contract are currently trading at 1,277 up around $21 an ounce with extreme volatility after selling off more than $30 in Thursday’s trade while settling last Friday at 1,293 going out this Friday afternoon around 1,276 finishing down $17 in a wild trading week. Gold futures topped out slightly above $1,300 as profit taking ensued as prices are still trading above their 20 and 100 day moving average and I’m still recommending a bullish position and if you took that original trade place your stop loss below the 10 day low which now yesterday’s low at 1,252 risking around $24 from today’s price levels or $2,400 risk per contract plus slippage and commission.

As I’ve talked about in many previous blogs I do think gold is now being used as a currency due to the fact that the Euro currency and many foreign currencies are absolutely falling out of bed as interest rates in many countries have gone negative so who wants to place money into a bank and lose money as investors now prefer gold which has no dividend but still it’s better than a negative return. Volatility in many of the commodity markets is very high at the current time especially the precious metals and I expect that to continue despite the fact that the U.S dollar hit an 11 year high continuing its secular bull market in my opinion as I do think 100 is on its way in the next several months as the United States economy is doing much better than any economy worldwide.

Gold futures have rallied from a contract low of 1,130 all the way up to about 1,310 in the last several months as money is finally starting to come out of the S&P 500 sending money flows back into the precious metals also sending high volatility which I think is here to stay especially with all of the worldwide problems
Trend: Higher
Chart Structure: Solid

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Mike Seerys Trading 101...."When Do You Enter A Trade"

What are your rules to initiate a trade on the long or short side of the commodity market? I have been asked this question many times throughout my career and my opinion is simply to buy on a 20-25 day high breakout in price on a closing basis only or sell on a 20-25 day low breakout to the downside also on a closing basis. Many times the price will break the 25 day high and sell off later in the day only to have your trade be negative very quickly.

I would rather buy the commodity at a higher price on the close because that gives me more confidence that the market has truly broken out. However there are more ways to skin a cat and this is not the only answer because some other trading systems might rely on different breakout rules that have also been reliable.

Remember always keeping a 1%-2% risk loss on any given trade therefore minimizing risks because the entry system I use always goes with the trend because I have learned over the course of time the trend is truly your friend in the long run. I also look for tight chart structure meaning a tight trading range over a period of time with relatively low volatility. I try to stay away from a crazy market that hit a 25 day high in 2 trading sessions versus the 25 high that actually took 25 days to create.

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