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Saturday, February 7, 2015

Weekly Crude Oil and Gold Futures Recap with Mike Seery

It's time for our weekly commodity futures recap with our trading partner Mike Seery. He has been Senior Analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets. And frequently appears on multiple business networks including Bloomberg news, Fox Business, CNBC Worldwide, CNN Business, and Bloomberg TV. He is also a guest on First Business, which is a national and internationally syndicated business show.

Crude oil futures in the March contract finished up around $1.50 a barrel closing around 52.00 after settling last Friday at 48.24 experiencing one of the best rallies we’ve seen it many months as prices are trading far above their 20 day moving average as I have not been able to say that in 6 months but still below their 100 day moving average which stands at $64 a barrel as I am neutral this market as I was recommending anybody who was short to place your stop at the 10 day high which was 49.20 as that stop was very beneficial as prices have rallied over $3 since that level was hit.

Volatility in crude oil is absolutely astronomical with prices moving 5/7% on a daily basis so please avoid this market as the volatility and the risk is out of control at the current time so wait for better chart structure to develop allowing you to place tighter stops minimizing risk and that could take some time as I don’t see the volatility slowing down anytime soon.

The U.S dollar was up 120 points today but had no effect on crude oil prices as crude is now trading right near a 4 week high, however the chart structure is terrible as the 10 day low is about a $9,000 risk from today’s price levels as that is too much risk in my opinion, however keep a close eye on this market because in a couple of days that could change as a trader I’m strictly a trend follower and if this market starts going up I will be bullish and if the market starts to go down breaking $44 I will be bearish but right now I can’t stress enough to look at other markets and avoid this market like the plague.
Trend: Mixed
Chart structure: Awful

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Gold futures in the April contract are down $27 on Friday afternoon in New York due to the fact of a very strong U.S monthly unemployment report pushing prices to a 3 week low as I’ve been recommending a long position in gold when prices broke above 1,245 and if you took that trade it’s time to exit today as prices are at a 3 week low as prices now are trading below their 20 but above their 100 day moving average telling you that the trend is mixed. Gold futures settled in the April contract at 1,279 while currently trading at 1,236 down about $43 for the trading week as the Dow Jones was up over 800 points this week as money is flowing out of the precious metals and into equities once again.

Silver futures are also down $.50 as the U.S dollar is up a whopping 100 points this Friday putting pressure on many of the commodities once again as extreme volatility is happening throughout the commodity and stock sectors sosit on the sidelines in this market as I’m disappointed that we gave back our profits and actually ended up losing slightly on this trade but that’s what happens sometimes when you trade a system as you must stick to the rules as this market fizzled out very quickly.

Gold prices have rallied from 1,130 which was around the contract low all the way above 1,300 which happened just a couple weeks ago and now has sold off about $70 as the trend is mixed and I do not like choppy markets as we probably will be sitting on the sidelines in the gold market for at least 4 to 6 weeks waiting for better chart structure to develop because the risk is too high as there is no trend as choppy markets are extremely difficult to trade.
Trend: Mixed
Chart structure: Poor

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