Mike Seery back to give our readers a recap of this weeks trading and help us put together a plan for the upcoming week.
Crude oil futures in the October contract settled last Friday in New York at 44.63 a barrel while currently trading at 46.40 up nearly $2 for the trading week as the short term trend seems to be gaining traction to the upside.
I’m currently sitting on the sidelines in this market as prices are trading above their 20 but below their 100 day moving average telling you that the trend is mixed as a bullish API report on Wednesday sent prices up sharply as it looks to me that prices want to go higher but the risk is too high at the current time to enter into a position. The U.S dollar was sharply lower this week as that supported the precious metals and the energy sector as prices are still consolidating last month’s rally from $38/$49 as volatility is relatively high at the current time.
The Federal Reserve announced yesterday that they will not raise interest rates helping push up many commodities here in the short term, but the problem with oil at the current time is the fact that we have massive worldwide supplies which have sent prices sharply lower in 2015 but that’s already reflected into the price, but wait for better chart structure to develop as it might take a couple more weeks so keep a close eye on this market.
Chart Structure: Improving
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Natural gas futures in the October contract are trading below their 20 and 100 telling you that the trend is to the downside as I’m now recommending a short position at 2.63 while placing your stop loss above the 10 day high which currently stands at 2.80 risking $1,700 per contract plus slippage and commission.
The chart structure will not improve for another 6 days so you’re going to have to accept the risk as prices are down about 6 points for the trading week as the energy sector is lower this Friday afternoon. Natural gas prices bottomed out around the 263 level on over a dozen occasions only to rally every single time but this time we broke major support and that’s why I am taking a short position as I think the risk/reward is in your favor but I would like to see a little better chart structure as we had a false rally earlier in the week to the upside and that’s why the stop loss is relatively high.
If the risk is too high for your trading account take advantage of any price rally therefore lowering monetary risk as who knows how low prices go as huge supplies continue to put pressure on this market coupled with mild weather conditions therefore decreasing demand here in the United States so stay short in my opinion as this is a major breakdown in price technically speaking.
Chart Structure: Solid
Gold futures in the December contract are sharply higher this Friday in New York trading up $20 at 1,137 an ounce after settling last Friday at 1,103 reacting to the Federal Reserve yesterday not raising interest rates sending gold sharply higher with high volatility. Gold is trading above its 20 day but still below its 100 day moving average telling you that the trend is mixed as I’ve been sitting on the sidelines for quite some time as this trend is extremely choppy as I’m advising investors to avoid this market at the current time and wait for better chart structure before entering.
I was recommending a silver trade getting stopped out a couple of days back as the precious metals as a whole have rallied as it looks like the Federal Reserve is very hesitant to raise interest rates which is bullish commodity markets at least here in the short term, but the true breakout in gold is above 1,170 but look at other markets that are beginning to trend with less risk.
The U.S dollar has been down 150 points in the last three days which has been very supportive to the precious metals as money is coming out of the S&P 500 and into gold but time will tell us if this trend is for real.
Chart Structure: Poor
Silver futures in the December contract settled last Friday in New York at 14.50 an ounce while currently trading at 15.25 up $.75 this week reacting to the Federal Reserve not raising interest rates sending silver prices sharply higher. I was recommending a short position in silver from around 14.70 getting stopped out in Wednesdays trade around 14.95 as prices are now trading above their 20 day but still below their 100 day moving average telling you that the trend is mixed so sit on the sidelines and look at other markets that are beginning to trend.
The chart structure in silver at the time of the recommendation was outstanding, however currently the chart structure is poor with high risk as the true breakout does not occur until prices break 15.77 as silver may have bottomed in the short term.
Many of the commodity markets have been choppy in recent weeks as I was stopped out of many of my trade recommendations as my only two positions at current time are short coffee and cattle as I will wait and be patient as sometimes not trading is the best thing to do.
Chart Structure: Poor
The dollar index futures in the December contract are trading below their 20 & 100 day average telling you that the trend is to the downside reacting negatively to the Federal Reserve’s decision not to raise interest rates sending the dollar down over 100 points for the trading week.
I’m currently sitting on the sidelines waiting for a breakout above 96.63 to occur before entering a bullish position but it looks to me that prices look to retest last month’s low of around 93 but the chart structure is poor at the current time so avoid this market as the risk is too high in my opinion.
I have not traded the currencies in quite some time but when I do see excellent chart structure coupled with a solid risk/reward situation I will trade the currency market but at this point the chart structure does not meet my criteria so find another market that is trending.
Chart Structure: Poor
Coffee futures in the December contract are trading below their 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the trend is bearish in the short term after settling in New York last Friday at 116.55 while currently trading at 118.25 in a very nonvolatile trading week. I am currently recommending a short position and if you took that recommendation continue to place your stop loss above the 10 day high which currently stands at 122.50 as the chart structure is outstanding at the current time while the risk/reward is in your favor in my opinion.
Coffee prices continue their bearish trend as traders are concerned that Brazil will continue to sell reserves due to the fact that of the Brazilian Real weakness versus the U.S dollar, but only time will tell to see if this comes to fruition. I’m a trend follower and the trend is to the downside as I think volatility will start to increase as coffee historically speaking is one of most volatile commodities in the world but at this point remains very dormant.
As I talked about in yesterday’s blog anytime you can risk three or four points in coffee you must take that trade as I think that’s a special situation that does not happen very often over the course of the year due to the fact that volatility is usually much higher than it is presently.
Chart Structure: Outstanding
Mike has been a senior analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets. Get more of Mike's calls on this Weeks Commodity Markets
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