Mike Seery back to give our readers a recap of this weeks trading and help us put together a plan for the upcoming week.
Crude oil futures in the November contract are trading below their 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the short term trend is to the downside as prices have been consolidating in recent weeks settling last Friday in New York at 45.70 a barrel while currently trading at 45.10 down around $.60 for the trading week. Traders reacted to a very bad monthly unemployment number pushing the U.S dollar sharply lower supporting many markets this Friday afternoon as I’m recommending a short position if prices break 44.00 while placing your stop loss above the 10 day high which now stands at 47.15 risking around $1,600 per contract plus slippage and commission, as prices have not broken out at this point so keep a close eye as this as this could happen any minute.
Many of the commodity markets are mixed this Friday afternoon as a weak U.S dollar has supported many different markets as the S&P 500 is sharply lower and that’s usually a negative influence towards oil prices, but they are stuck in a consolidation and I don’t like to trade choppy markets so be patient and wait for the breakout to occur. Oil prices have been relatively volatile especially with the fact that Russia is bombing Syria sending prices sharply higher yesterday and then falling out of bed towards the end of the day, so make sure you respect this market placing the proper amount of contracts therefore respecting risk which is high at the current time.
Chart Structure: Improving
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Natural gas futures in the November contract settled last Friday in New York at 2.63 while currently trading at 2.43 hitting a 3 ½ year low as I’ve been recommending a short position from around the 2.70 level and if you took that trade continue to place your stop loss above the 10 day high which currently stands at 2.72 as the chart structure is poor at the current time due to the fact that prices continue to move lower.
Mild temperatures in the Midwestern part of the United States is causing demand problems therefore putting pressure on short term prices as the next major level of support is around 2.25 and if that is broken we can retest the 2012 lows around 2.00 in my opinion as the trend is your friend and this trend is getting stronger to the downside on a weekly basis.
At the time of the recommendation the chart structure was outstanding and was one of the main reasons I took that trade, however if you have missed this trade the chart structure is poor as the risk is too high as you have missed the boat so look at other markets that are beginning to trend. If you take a look at the weekly chart pattern natural gas has broken out of major consolidation as I’m looking to add more positions to this trade once the chart structure tightens up which will take another week or so.
Chart Structure: Poor
Gold futures in the December contract settled last Friday in New York at 1,145 an ounce while currently trading at 1,131 down about $14 this week but reacting sharply higher today on a poor monthly unemployment number but continuing its long term down trend while trading below its 20 and 100 day moving average retesting major support at 1,100 near an eight week low as I’m currently sitting on the sidelines as this market remains choppy with poor chart structure.
I still see no reason to own gold currently as the risk/reward is not your favor so look at other markets that are starting to trend. Gold prices had a significant rally in the month of August bottoming out around 1,080 then rallying to 1,170 which was impressive in my opinion due to short covering and a flight to quality as the stock market has experienced volatility in recent weeks sending money out of stocks and into gold as a safe haven, but things have settled down putting short term pressure on gold.
As I’ve talked about in many previous blogs I am a trend follower and I do not like to trade choppy markets because they are extremely difficult in my opinion so avoid this market at the current time and wait for better chart structure to develop before entering.
Chart Structure: Poor
Silver futures in the December contract settled last Friday in New York at 15.11 an ounce while currently trading at 15.00 down about $.10 reacting sharply higher due to a poor monthly unemployment number today continuing its remarkable choppy trend over the last several months as prices are right near a four week low.
At the current time I’m sitting on the sidelines as I hate trade choppy markets as prices are still trading below their 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the short term trend is to the downside and the long term down trend is still intact in my opinion as this market has been frustrating as prices seem to go nowhere.
I’ll keep a close eye and wait for better chart structure to develop as platinum prices hit another contract low and I think that will continue to pressure silver, but I will wait for a breakout to occur as the 10 day high is too far away risking too much money at the current time so be patient as the trend clearly remains bearish.
The U.S dollar has remained strong throughout 2015 as that’s put pressure on the precious metals and many other commodities as I think the U.S dollar is about to breakout to the upside and if that does occur look for silver prices to possibly head back down to the $13 level.
Chart Structure: Poor
The dollar index futures in the December contract are trading above their 20 day and right at their 100 day average telling you that the trend has turned to the upside as I’m currently sitting on the sidelines waiting for a breakout above 96.88 to occur before entering a bullish position while then placing your stop loss at the 10 day low which would be 95.57.
The dollar settled last Friday at 96.43 while currently trading at 96.45 basically unchanged for the trading week as investors are awaiting the monthly unemployment number which will be released this morning at 7:30 sending high volatility back into this market. I have not traded the dollar index for quite some time but when I do see excellent chart structure coupled with a solid risk/reward situation I will trade the market, but at this point patience is the key waiting for the true breakout to occur before entering as we could be entering a bullish position any day now.
Chart Structure: Improving
Coffee futures in the December contract are trading above their 20 day but still below their 100 day moving average telling you that the short term trend is mixed as I was recommending a short position getting stopped out last Friday around the 122 level as I’m now sitting on the sidelines waiting for another trend to develop as I have been stopped out of the last two recommendations. Coffee settled last Friday at 122.70 a pound while currently trading at 121 down slightly for the trading week with very low volatility as prices are still right near a 4 week high waiting for some fresh fundamental news to dictate short term price action.
Generally speaking coffee is one of the most volatile commodities historically speaking, but with low volatility at the current time as prices have been going sideways for the last month or so, but a new trend could be developing as prices look to be bottoming out around this level in my opinion. The Brazilian Real has stabilized against the U.S dollar in the past week and that’s also helped push up coffee prices here in the short term, but only time will tell to see if that trend remains, but I expect high volatility to emerge in the coming months.
Chart Structure: Solid
Mike has been a senior analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets. Get more of Mike's calls on this Weeks Commodity Markets
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