Thursday, December 22, 2016

Five Easy Ways to Make Your Finances Less Fragile

By Justin Spittler

A few days ago, we sat down with E.B. Tucker, editor of The Casey Report, to talk shop. The conversation was so good, we just had to share it with you. In the following interview, E.B. talks about how he manages his own money. As you’ll see, he has a unique, yet intuitive approach to investing, especially when it comes to asset allocation. We hope you find this conversation as useful as we did. Also, make sure you read until the end to learn about one of E.B.’s top speculations.

Justin Spittler: I want to talk investment strategy. Could you tell us how you manage your own money?

E.B. Tucker: I like to break up my investments into buckets. I have about five of them. I have one for gold, one for permanent life insurance, one for real estate, and two for stocks. I don’t limit myself to a certain number of buckets. But I’ve had very good results looking at asset allocation this way.

J.S.: Can you tell us a little more about your “buckets”? Why do you break them up this way? What kind of assets go into each?

E.B.: First of all, the buckets change with life and market conditions. For example, I put most of my capital into a real estate bucket in 2009–2010. As you know, the U.S. housing market had just crashed. If you had the capital, you could buy some houses for next to nothing. And that’s exactly what I did.…

During that period, I bought six single-family homes. I bought one of them for just $10 per square foot. I spent another $10 per square foot fixing the place up, so I put about $20 per square foot all in. The guy before me paid $160 per square foot and ended up in foreclosure. He bought near the peak of the housing bubble. My timing was much better. Today, I’m not adding to my real estate bucket. There just aren’t that many great deals out there. This is key to how I invest. Rather than fight the market, I let it determine how I allocate my money.

J.S.: Can you tell us about some of your other buckets?

E.B.: Well, I have a bucket for gold. But I don’t view gold as an investment designed to make money. I see it as a key long term asset. When gold is cheap, I pour money into this asset. I don’t think about this bucket often. I just get the gold, vault it, and move on.

I also have a permanent life insurance bucket. This bucket is important because I have a few people that depend on me. If I die, they’re out of luck. So, I need to have life insurance. Specifically, I own a couple dividend-paying life insurance policies. A lot of people consider these terrible investments, but that’s because they don’t understand them.

You see, any extra money that I put in this bucket on top of the minimum annual premium grows 6% to 7% per year, tax free. If I don’t use the policy, over time I’ll have a fairly large amount of cash in that bucket that I spend, borrow from, or use to buy more life insurance. And, of course, if the worst does happen, my dependents receive a large death benefit. This money will help them get by in my absence.

J.S.: Interesting, it sounds like this bucket protects you and gives you flexibility.

E.B.: Exactly. The reason I invest this way is because it makes me less “fragile." Now, I still have plenty of exposure to rising asset prices in other buckets. But, if you’re smart about when and how much you add to each bucket, your “boring” buckets will eventually balance out your more speculative buckets. The result is a more stable financial situation without giving up the quest for profits. I like investing this way because I no longer worry about trying to maximize my profit on every trade or every time the market changes course.

J.S.: Let’s talk about your stock buckets next. I’m sure our readers would love to know what’s in your portfolio. 

E.B.: Sure. As I said earlier, I have two of them. One is for stocks I plan to hold for the long haul. I don’t trade these stocks often. I’m only a seller if something happens that changes the business landscape for one of the companies. I typically own between six and eight of these companies at any given time. One of my favorite long term holdings is a company that make crackers you buy at the gas station and pretzels that go well with beer. Last year, the company acquired a business that sells almonds and other nuts. It’s a great company. And it now pays me a decent yield of 3%, since I’ve owned the stock for a few years.

J.S.: What are some of your other long term stock holdings?

E.B.: I also have shares of one of the country’s best regional banks. And I own shares of one of America’s most iconic companies. This company is basically a drug dealer, peddling sugar and caffeine from small rented stores. You get the picture. Now, these aren’t the most exciting investments in the world but, over time, you see the value of owning rock solid American businesses.

You end up with companies that slowly capture market share from their competitors, invest money back into their businesses, and pay dividends. I don’t see how you can get hurt having this bucket represent 20% of your net worth. It’s also worth mentioning that I like to own these stocks in company sponsored dividend reinvestment plans.

Since these are long-term investments, I don’t want to log into a brokerage account and see them next to my trading positions every day. Holding them directly on the company’s books means all my dividends get reinvested into additional shares, usually at no cost. The final benefit is I don’t have to worry about my broker going bust. Holding shares directly registered with a company means there’s nobody standing between you and your investment.

J.S.: That leaves us with your speculation bucket. Can you tell us a little bit about this one?

E.B.: Ah, my favorite. I’ve done fairly well speculating. The key here is separating good speculations from bad ones. As a professional investor, a lot of opportunities come across my desk. Most of them aren’t worth my time. You have to pass on a lot of bad speculations before you find a great one.

J.S.: Can you tell us about one of your better speculations?

E.B.: At a lunch meeting with my banker in 2009, he told me about a company in town that invented a hurricane simulation machine. They placed a few in malls, shopping centers, arcades, and museums and charged $2 per customer. The test machines took in $4,000 to $5,000 per month. The company built each machine for around $12,000. The company had trouble getting a bank to lend it money. It was right after the financial crisis, after all.

I met with the company, saw the machine, and looked at their business plan. A few other investors and I funded the company. We bought preferred shares that paid a 20% dividend. We also received a portion of the company’s profits for the first two years, which boosted our initial returns. Seven and a half years later, I’m still collecting monthly checks from the company. I’ve more than doubled my money, and I could sell the shares anytime I want.

J.S.: Have you done any other speculations like this recently?

E.B.: Yes. Before I got into this business, I ran a gold fund for a few years. My former business partner from that fund just took his gold streaming and royalty company public. Our company policy does not allow me to share the name of the stock, since I own shares. I’m involved in that deal to the tune of about 1% of the company. I think there’s a realistic shot that I’ll make 5–10 times my money.

J.S.: Most people would kill to make that much on a single investment. Why are you so optimistic?

E.B.: I think it’s a good time to speculate on small gold and silver stocks. I especially like royalty and streaming companies like this one. They avoid the tremendous financial burdens that mining companies face.
I also look for companies that have a winning strategy but that are overlooked by the market. If these companies execute, my odds of success go up.

But you need to have cash on hand, or what some people call dry powder, to take advantage of these opportunities. That’s because great deals usually require quick action. When one of my speculations is a winner, I’ll take profits and put them into other buckets, depending on what looks good at the time. I almost never leave the entire profit in the bucket it came from.

J.S.: Got it. So, do you like to keep a certain percentage in each bucket at any given time? What rules, if any, do you follow?

E.B.: I don’t really follow a set of rules when it comes to asset allocation. That makes it hard to take advantage of huge opportunities when they appear. For example, I wouldn’t have invested in the Florida rental real estate market in 2009 and 2010 if I stuck to strict rules. When in doubt, you can divide new money equally between buckets. You can also sit on cash and wait for buying opportunities to present themselves.

J.S.: What kind of investments do you focus on in The Casey Report?

E.B.: That’s your most valuable question so far. In The Casey Report, we fill the long-term stock and speculative stock buckets. We try to predict what the investing world will be like one to two years down the road. We then buy stocks that will benefit most as the world changes. In stock investing, that’s the sweet spot where you find the most value in the shortest period of time.

Our goal is to beat the S&P 500 every year. We want our readers to have enough success to irritate their wealth manager. Hopefully, they can use that success and the lessons learned in The Casey Report to beat the market in their asset buckets.

J.S.: Thank you for your time, E.B.

E.B.: You’re welcome.

In August, E.B. told his readers to buy a small North American mining company. At the time, few investors knew about the company. Its stock traded for less than $1. But E.B. said the stock wouldn’t fly under the radar for much longer…and he was exactly right.

In just four months, this stock has soared 115%. Normally, we wouldn’t encourage you to buy a stock after an explosive run like this. But E.B. recently went on record and said, “the stock doubled, it will double again.” To see why, watch this brand-new presentation. It talks about an event that E.B. says will take place exactly one month from today. If the event goes as expected, this stock should skyrocket again.

You can learn more about this event, including how to take advantage of it, by watching this FREE video.

The article Five Easy Ways to Make Your Finances Less Fragile was originally published at caseyresearch.com.



Stock & ETF Trading Signals

Monday, December 5, 2016

How to Use the New Market Manipulation to Your Advantage

It's time for another one of Don Kaufman's wildly popular webinars. Don’t miss this live online seminar, How to Use the New Market Manipulation to Your Advantage, with Don Kaufman this Tuesday December 6th. at 8:00 PM New York, 7:00 PM Central or 5:00 PM Pacific.

During this free webinar you will learn:
  • How scarcely used recent additions in market structure have forever changed how we view price movement and volatility.
  • What weekly strategy you can use to take minimal risk and produce astonishing returns surrounding predictable or manipulated movements in any stock, ETF, or index.
  • The one product that has become statistically significant in determining the next market move so whether you're a long term investor, swing trader, or intra-day trader you can get tuned into what's driving today's marketplace.
  • How you can use market efficiency to your advantage in all aspects of your investments, retirement accounts, stock and options trading accounts, futures trading and more.
  • How you can trade up to several times per week without having to continually monitor your positions, "set it and forget it" with this low risk high reward trade.
      Don's Webinars have an attendance limit that we always hit. This one will be no exception.

      Visit Here to Register Now!

      See you Tuesday night!
      Ray C. Parrish
      aka the Crude Oil Trader




Saturday, December 3, 2016

Mike Seery's Weekly Futures Recap - Crude Oil, Natural Gas, Gold, Silver, Coffee and Sugar

It's been a crazy end to the week of November 28th through December 2nd with the wild ride up we had in crude oil and that means it is time for a heads up from our trading partner Michael Seery. We've asked him to give our readers a recap of the this weeks futures markets and give us some insight on where he sees these markets headed. Mike has been a senior analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.

Crude oil futures in the January contract settled last Friday in New York at 46.06 a barrel while currently trading at 50.55 up about $4.50 for the trading week all due to the fact of OPEC cutting 4.5% of production sending prices in Wednesdays and Thursdays trade sharply higher now hitting a 5 week high. Prices bottomed out around November 14th at 42.74 & now has rallied about $8 as this market remains extremely choppy and has gone nowhere over the last 6 months as I am currently sitting on the sidelines as the chart structure is poor therefore the monetary risk is too high to enter in my opinion. The energy sector has caught fire including natural gas as winter is now upon us which is the high demand for heating oil as well, however I still think this market remains choppy for the rest of 2016 as a strong U.S dollar could limit prices to the upside in my opinion so look at other markets that are beginning to trend with less risk. Crude oil is now trading above its 20 and 100 day moving average with major resistance around the $52 level which was hit in the month of October on a couple of different occasions and if that level is broken you have to think that the bullish trend would continue, but at present I'm recommending no position. 

Trend: Higher 
Chart Structure: Poor

Natural gas futures in the January contract settled last Friday in New York at 3.20 while currently trading at 3.46 up significantly for the trading week hitting a 5 week high. At the current time, I'm sitting on the sidelines as I wrote about this market 2 weeks ago as I was looking to get into a bullish position. However, the chart structure did not meet my criteria as the monetary risk was too high at the time. Natural gas prices are trading above their 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the short term trend is higher as prices look to retest the contract high which was hit on October 18th at 3.67 as we enter the extremely volatile winter season which can cause tremendous price spikes due to very cold weather in the Midwestern part of the United States. Natural gas has been on a wild roller coaster bottoming out on November 9th at 2.72 as I'm looking for a consolidation before entering as the entire energy sector has caught fire over the last several weeks. There is a price gap between 3.22/3.25 and that makes me nervous if you have a bullish position as I do think that gap will be closed within the next week so let's keep a close eye on that price level. 

Trend: Higher 
Chart Structure: Poor

Gold futures in the February contract settled last Friday in New York at 1,181 an ounce while now trading at 1,175 hitting a fresh 8 month low as prices continue to move southward on a weekly basis as I am kicking myself as I am not short, however, I have not been picking a bottom either. At present, I'm telling investors to avoid this market, but certainly, do not be buying this commodity as I do believe lower prices are ahead as I'm still very bullish the U.S dollar and the stock market as a whole since both of those are negative towards gold prices. The 10 year note today broke 2.40% which is the highest yield since January and I do believe interest rates are going higher which is not another negative influence towards gold prices. Gold futures continue to move lower despite the fact that crude oil is about $6 in the last 2 trading sessions which generally is very bullish most inflationary commodities, however, that shows you how weak gold is at present as demand is lacking. 

Trend: Lower 
Chart Structure: Poor

Silver futures in the March contract settled last Friday in New York at 16.55 an ounce while currently trading at 16.53 basically unchanged with the week trading in a very nonvolatile manner as prices are stuck in a two week consolidation after hitting a 5 month low. Silver prices are trading below their 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the short term trend is lower as I'm currently sitting on the sidelines waiting for another trend to occur which could develop in the next couple of weeks as the chart structure is improving on a daily basis, therefore, lowering monetary risk. Gold prices have been falling rather dramatically ever since the Trump election as that has put severe pressure on silver prices ,however if we are going to expand the economy & do huge infrastructure stimulus I would think that silver prices look cheap as copper prices are still right near recent highs and sharply higher from their 2016 lows. Trading is all about risk/reward and at present I just don't see a trade in this commodity as trading to trade is a very dangerous over the course of time as you must be patient and wait for probabilities to improve in your favor. 

Trend: Lower - Mixed 
Chart Structure: Improving

Coffee futures in the March contract settled last Friday in New York at 155.0 a pound while currently trading at 145.60 down about 900 points from trading week with prices not seen since mid August as prices topped out last month around the 1.80 level, but at the current time I'm sitting on the sidelines as the chart structure has been poor in this market for months. Coffee prices are trading below their 20 and 100 day moving average for the 1st time in months & that tells you that the short term trend is lower with the next major level of support around the 140 level as I do believe coffee prices are getting cheap. A strong U.S dollar is certainly keeping a lid on many agricultural products including coffee, but my only short position in the soft commodities is a short sugar position which also continues to move lower. However, the volatility will be to the upside in coffee as were starting to enter the very volatile and critical winter growing season in the country of Brazil. Many of the commodity markets have been very choppy over the last several months, and that's why I only have 1 trade recommendation as I'm waiting for better chart structure to develop across many different sectors as that might take some time. 

Trend: Lower 
Chart Structure: Poor

Get additional commodity calls from Mike Seery on Cocoa, Sugar, Soybean, Cotton and more....Just Click Here



Stock & ETF Trading Signals

Sunday, November 20, 2016

Two Days with Real and Wannabee Elite

By Doug Casey

Recently I made a few comments about the world’s self-identified “elite”, and also about the migrants that are plaguing Europe. Happily, I was able to do some one stop shopping on both of these topics when I was in New York to attend a very elitist and Globalist conference. I’m not going to name it because its organizers/sponsors are business partners of mine. 

And since they spent multi millions putting it together, and I pretty much despised their invitees, I’m not about to identify it exactly. Just let me say that the conclave has aspirations to become another Council on Foreign Relations, Bilderberg, Bohemian Grove, Atlantic Council, or Davos. Same kind of people, same ideas. Uniformly bad ideas. But ideas that the public has been brainwashed into thinking are good.

A lot of people are afraid these groups control the world, or at least governments. They don’t. They’re social gatherings for high level government employees and NGO types who like to network, and feel relevant. And lots of their minions, who enjoy the rich food, pretending they’re big shots too, while listening to pontifications by actual big shots. They hope they can cozy up to them, close enough to ride a richer gravy train.

The avowed purpose of this conclave was to “build the public private partnership”—the exact definition of fascism. So there were also lots of big league corporate types who want to “make a difference”, and rich guys who want to be known for something besides having money.

Warren Buffett

The program opened with Warren Buffett’s talk about how he didn’t need $50 billion, didn’t believe anybody else did either, and why he was a “philanthropist” who would give it all away. The avuncular Buffett is an investment genius; I enjoyed and agreed with everything he said on investing. But, like his friend Bill Gates, he’s also an autistic idiot savant. That’s someone who is a genius at one thing, and a fool at most everything else.

Most people assume that if you know about investing, you must also know about economics, which is a related discipline. But that’s completely untrue. It’s analogous to thinking that someone who knows how to drive a car also knows how one works. Economics is the study of how men go about producing and consuming; investing is the practice of allocating capital for maximum returns. Buffett’s grasp of economics is shallow, conventional, and unrelated to his success as an investor.

Furthermore, if Buffett was really a philanthropist he wouldn’t dissipate his $50 billion on poor people in Third World countries (which is where I suspect most of what’s left after administrative expenses will go). That will assuage some liberal guilt, but will vanish without a trace like water poured into the Sahara.
And actually just make the root problem worse in many ways. If he really wants to help his fellow man, he would continue compounding capital at 20%, forever. Capital makes the world wealthy; consuming or frittering away capital makes the world poor. But enough on Buffett. He only exasperated me for about 40 minutes out of two full days.

George Soros

Much worse was George Soros. He spent his time not just passively endorsing (like Buffett), but actively promoting disastrous policies. In essence, these were his major points. 

1) Brexit should be overturned, regardless of the vote. 
2) The EU should spend at least $200 billion a year (in addition to what individual countries spend) both to make migrants welcome, and to install a Marshall Plan for Africa. 
3) All of Europe should import migrants at least proportionally to the 1mm entering Germany. He recognized that the migrants represent an “existential crisis” for Europe, but believes the solution is to accommodate them. 
4) The EU should actively arm against Russia. 
5) The EU in Brussels should be granted the right to tax.

As I listened to him I felt I’d been transported to Bizzarro World, or perhaps some magic land from Gulliver’s Travels, where everything is upside down, wrong is right, and black is white. Just as much of Soros’ presentation was on migration, so was much of the rest of the conference. It’s very much on the minds of the “elite”.

His new Marshall Plan would consist of Europe and the US sending trillions to African governments to develop the Continent. Strange, really. Africa has received about a trillion of foreign aid over the last 50 years; that capital has either been wasted on uneconomic boondoggles, or shipped off to the bank accounts of the ruling class. Soros is far from naïve; he’s got to know this. 

I wonder what he actually hopes to accomplish, and why? After all, he’s 84 years old, and doesn’t need any more money. Well, it’s hard to be sure how some people’s minds are wired. And, as The Phantom once asked, “Who knows what evil lurks in the hearts of men?”

Incidentally—completely contrary to conventional wisdom—I consider the much lauded Marshall Plan to have been an unnecessary and destructive boondoggle. But this isn’t the moment to explain why that’s true.
As I said above, the Summit was centered on migration. I’ve recently commented on the subject, and will reiterate a few points below before returning to the views of the Globalists and self-identified Elite.

A Word on Migration

Let me start by saying I’m all for immigration and completely open borders to enable opportunity seekers from anyplace to move anyplace else. With two big, critically important, caveats..... 

1) there can be no welfare or free government services, so everyone has to pay his own way, and no freeloaders are attracted 
2) all property is privately owned, to minimize the possibility of squatter camps full of beggars.

In the absence of welfare benefits, immigrants are usually the best of people because you get mobile, aggressive, and opportunity seeking people that want to leave stagnant and repressive cultures for vibrant and liberal ones. That was the case with the millions of immigrants who came to the US in the late 19th and early 20th centuries. And they had zero in the way of state support.

But what is going on in Europe today is entirely different. The migrants coming to Europe aren’t being attracted by opportunity in the new land so much as the welfare benefits and the soft life. Western Europe is a massive welfare state that providing free food, housing, medical care, schooling, and living expenses to all comers. Benefits like these will naturally draw in poor people from poor countries. For the most part they’ll be unskilled, poorly educated, and many will have a bad attitude. The question arises why—since they’re almost all Muslims—they aren’t being welcomed by Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, or Brunei, which are wealthy Muslim countries.

What we’re talking about here is the migration of millions of people of different language, different race, different religion, different culture, and different mode of living. If you’re an alien and you’re 1 out of 10,000, or 1000, or even 100, you’re a curiosity, an interesting outsider. And you’d have to integrate in the new society. But an influx of millions of migrants can only destroy the old culture. And guarantee antagonism—especially when the locals are forced to pay for it. In many ways, what’s happening now isn’t just comparable to what happened 2,000 years ago with the migration of the Germanic barbarians into the Roman Empire. It’s potentially much more serious.

Although most of the migration will be out of Africa, it’s supposed to be official Chinese policy to migrate about 300 million Chinese into Africa in the years to come. They’re employed in building roads, mines, railroads and other infrastructure. The Africans like the goodies, but don’t like the Chinese. It has the makings of a race war a generation or so in the future. 

The problem won’t only be tens or hundreds of millions of Africans migrating to Europe, but tens or hundreds of millions of Chinese migrating to Africa. The EU is a huge aggravating factor with the migrant situation. Brussels is full of globalists and doctrinaire socialists who not only promote bad policies, but make the whole continent pay for the mistakes of its most misguided members.

The migrants, who are manifestly unwelcome in Hungary, Poland, and other Eastern European countries, will prove another big impetus for the breakup of the EU. Millions of Africans will want to emigrate, especially to the homelands of their ex-colonial masters in Europe. The colonizers are now themselves being colonized. Fair enough, I suppose; a case of the sins of the father truly devolving upon the sons.

If I was an African from south of the Sahara, I’d absolutely try to get to Italy or Greece or France or Spain or on my way to Northern Europe to cash in on the largesse of these stupid Europeans. I’m a fan of what’s left of Western Civilization. I hate to see it washed away. But that’s what will happen if the floodgate is opened.

Unless the Europeans get in front of this situation, it’s not just some refugees from the Near East they’ll have to deal with. Especially with the economic chaos of The Greater Depression, it’s going to be many millions from Africa, and then perhaps millions more from Central Asia, and even India and Bangladesh. The world is becoming a very small place. What happens when scores of thousands of migrants set up a squatter camp someplace—with no food, shelter, or sanitary facilities? What will happen when there are scores or hundreds of squatter camps? Unlike the Goths and the Vandals, who became the new aristocracy, the chances of the Africans integrating is essentially zero. 

The situation is likely to be most stressful…..

Some will say “But you have to be charitable, you can’t just let them starve because they’ve had some bad luck”. To that I’d say an individual, or a family, can have some bad luck. But the places these people come from have had “bad luck” for centuries. Their bad luck is the consequence of their political, economic, and social systems. Their cultures—let me note the elephant in the room—are backward, degraded, and unproductive. It makes no sense, it’s idiotic, to import—at huge expense—masses of people that have a culture of “bad luck”.

On just one day recently, the Italian Coast Guard rescued 10,000 Africans off the Libyan coast—almost all men from Guinea, Gambia, Nigeria, and neighboring countries—and transported them to Italy. It’s hard to see them ever going back home. But it’s certain they’ll encourage they’re friends and families to join them.
The situation can only get worse. Why? In 1950, the 250 million Africans were only 9% of the world’s population; it’s 27% now, but there will be 4 billion, for 40%, in 2100. 

Making that observation is highly politically incorrect, and presumably racist. I’ll have more to say on racism in the future. But the fact is that Africa has always been an economic basket case; if Vasco Da Gama had thrown out a wheel when he was rounding the Cape, he would also have had to throw out an instruction book on how to use it. But nobody could have read it.

Be that as it may. But Europeans made things worse when they conquered the continent and divided it up into political entities that made zero sense from a cultural, linguistic, religious or tribal viewpoint. That guaranteed chaos for the indefinite future. That’s why it’s always a mad scramble to get control of the government in these countries, in order to loot the treasury, entrench ones cronies, and punish ones enemies. Until there’s a bloody revolution, and the shoe goes on another foot.

Here’s the takeaway. The population of Africa is going up by several billion people in the years to come. The net wealth of the continent is going nowhere. The locals will want to move wholesale to Europe, where the living is easy. And where the politically correct Cultural Marxists are anxious to destroy their own civilization.
Meanwhile, there are hundreds of think tanks in the U.S. alone, most located within the Washington Beltway who believe that these people should be encouraged to migrate, or imported en masse. They’re populated by partisan academics, ex-politicos, retired generals and others circulating through the revolving doors of the military/industrial/political/academic complex.

They’re really just propaganda outlets, funded by foundations, and donors who want to give an intellectual patina to their views and, to use a popular phrase, “make a difference”.

Think tanks, and their cousins, the lobbyists and the NGOs, are mostly what I like to call Running Dogs, who act as a support system for the Top Dogs in the Deep State. Their product is “policy recommendations,” which influence how much tax you have to pay and how many new regulations you have to obey. Think tanks are populated almost exclusively by people who are, simultaneously, both “useful idiots” and “useless mouths.” They’re no friends of the common man.

The migration policies they’re promoting are creating minor chaos now. With world-class chaos in the wings.
Let me repeat, and re-emphasize, what I said earlier. The free-market solution to the migrant situation is quite simple. If all the property of a country is privately owned, anyone can come and stay as long as he can pay for his accommodations. When even the streets and parks are privately owned, trespassers, beggars, squatters, migrants, vagrants and the like have a problem. A country with 100% private property, and zero welfare, would only attract people who like those conditions. And they’d undoubtedly be welcome as individuals. But “migration” would be impossible.

This is how the migration problem could be solved. You don’t need the government. You don’t need the army. You don’t need visas or quotas. You don’t need laws. You don’t need treaties to solve the migration problem. All you need is privately owned property and the lack of welfare benefits. Instead, think tanks will come up with some cockamamie political solution. But the good news is that it will speed up the disintegration of the EU.

My prediction that the Continent will one day just be a giant petting zoo for the Chinese is intact—assuming the current wave of migrants approve. There will also be an exodus of capital and people from Europe to parts of Latin America, plus to the U.S., Canada, Australia, and New Zealand. This is, obviously, bad for Europe and good for the recipient countries, since these emigrants will be educated and affluent.
But, having said that, let me take you back to the conference where migration was a major topic of discussion by the elite.

Back to the Conference

Those are my thoughts on the topic of migration. Here’s what other attendees thought....

I spent a couple of hours listening to a panel entitled “Corruption in Latin America”. A bunch of ex-Presidents commiserated on how awful corruption is, and how new laws ought to be passed to stamp it out once and for all. They were all skilled, even enthusiastic, bullshit artists, who knew how to blather meaninglessly, saying nothing. They all agreed that illegal drugs were a major cause for corruption, but nobody thought to mention that maybe the problem wasn’t the drugs, but the fact they were illegal.
None of these people understood the actual causes and the nature of corruption. Which is ironic, since most of them were quite wealthy—something that’s hard to do on a Third World politician’s salary.

One especially naive panelist, representing the US State Department, said “many see the private sector as part of the problem”. What, one might ask, actually causes the problem?

The short answer was supplied by Tacitus 1900 years ago. He said “The more numerous the laws, the more corrupt the State”. That’s because the laws invariably have economic consequences, benefiting one group at the expense of another. The most practical way to obviate them is by paying off an official.

Naturally, nobody even broached the subject that laws themselves cause corruption. And corruption is actually not only necessary, but is encouraged, whenever economic laws are passed. Plan your life around corruption remaining endemic, no matter how much self-righteous apparatchiks blather on about it at conferences.

General David Petraeus

I listened to David Petraeus offer solutions to the world’s problems. They were what you might expect from an ex-general and CIA director. To David it’s all about using force and money “intelligently”. It never seemed to cross his mind that adventures like those in Iraq and Afghanistan ($6 trillion and counting, to accomplish absolutely nothing) might actually bankrupt the US. Or that he was intimately involved in the ongoing disaster.

My takeaway is that, after David collects say $20 million in the “private sector”, we’ll see him resurface as a candidate for the US Presidency. He’s smooth, polished, and confident. I was somewhat surprised that some general wasn’t tapped this election for a VP slot, since the military is the US Government’s most trusted branch by far. Rest assured there will be a general running in 2020.

Donald Rumsfeld also held the stage for 40 minutes. He was affable, likable, and entertaining, as are many sociopaths. Not even the faintest acknowledgement passed his lips about how the current migrant disaster was rooted in his unprovoked attacks on backward countries on the other side of the world. But why should he care? He’s already collected his $20 million in the “private sector” after many years of “service”.

The Migration Round Table

Another highlight was listening to a Round table on “The Public/ Private Partnership on Migration”. It might as well have been a meeting of the Soviet politburo, where everyone implicitly accepted the same totally flawed principles, speaking seriously and sincerely to each other about how they plan to change the world. These people were mainly interested in reinforcing each others views, like a conversation on NPR.

How to solve the refugee/migrant situation? No solutions were proposed by any of the 40 high government officials and think tank big shots. Everybody’s attention focused on two things: how awful the situation is, and how they can feed, clothe, and house the masses. I was amused at the sight of parasites talking to parasites about parasites.

References were made to “broader economic integration”, a nebulous phrase that can mean almost anything, and no references at all to freer markets. There were continual references to a “partnership” between the public and private sectors. It made me feel I was among aliens. How can there be a partnership between producers, and those who not only steal 50% of the production, but then want to direct where the remainder goes. These people all seemed to believe that if you earned money, you didn’t deserve to keep it. But if you needed money, you were entitled to it.

There was a discussion about how the crisis that started in 2007 has set back the progress of Africa. But zero discussion of what caused the crisis. Or what would happen when it stated up again (which is happening right now). The only discussion of how to create prosperity was about Special Economic Zones—areas insulated from the taxes and regulations affecting the rest of the country. Needless to say no one thought to ask why an entire country couldn’t become an SEZ.

A question occurred to me about the several hundred thousand refugees/migrants that still might be imported to the US—although it's much less likely with Trump as the President: Exactly who will pay for them, and how much will the pleasure of their company cost? These people have nothing but the rags on their backs. 

Will they be ferried to the US on commercial airliners? When they land, how will they be clothed? They’ll need to be fed for an indefinite period. And housed. And entertained. Mosques must be found, or founded, so they can worship. Very few have any marketable skills, and very few even speak English. Most of them could just stay on welfare for the rest of their lives.

It seems completely insane. But it’s clearly the “Globalist agenda”, endorsed by all these people. Of course there’s some perverse justice at work if the US winds up having to import a few million Muslim refuges. The Muslim world was, at least, stable before Bush and Obama went on a wild “regime change” adventure. Now chaos reigns in Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria, and Libya.

One justification put forward for migration to Europe was that its population was dropping, and it would need people, if only to take care of the oldsters. For what it’s worth, we’ll have robots doing that within a decade.

Conclusion?

You’re perhaps wondering how any sensible person could sit there and listen to such blather and nonsense for two days without reacting. Of course I wanted to debunk about 95% of what I heard. But the Summit was structured so that Guests didn’t have a forum from which to challenge the Nomenklatura and their Apparatchiks. So I sat there, observing an alien species in a sort of formalized mating ritual. No opportunity presented itself to shock these copulating dogs with a bucket of cold water. Certainly not from a seat in the Peanut Gallery.

Are conferences like this one, and its lookalikes, a waste of time? Completely. And keep that in mind before you make a contribution to a charity or an NGO. Could it have been worthwhile? Yes. If it had addressed the questions I posed above. But, even then, the answers would have been worthless, given the attendees.

I think migration is going to be one of the biggest problems in the next generation. It’s a sure thing that not just millions, but tens of millions of “feet people” and “boat people” are going to try to overrun Europe. If they’re accepted and resettled it will destroy what’s left of Western Civilization. If they’re repelled, it could result in millions of deaths, and be quite a scandal. I don’t know how this will sort out. But it’s going to be a big deal. And ugly.

What should you do? Own plenty of gold and silver, and make sure that you have one or more residences that are out of harm’s way.

Editor’s Note: If you haven't seen it yet, Doug Casey has just released his latest and most controversial prediction yet. It involves a shocking currency ban (not gold) that may soon take effect under the Trump presidency. 

Already, Fed members have met in private to discuss this matter. And the savings of millions could be devalued if this goes into effect. 

To watch the video and discover the 4 steps Doug is taking to prepare, click here.


Monday, November 14, 2016

A Chicken in Every Pot

By Jeff Thomas

That’s a pretty powerful statement. Is it historically supportable? Let’s visit a current example Venezuela to examine the overall process of collectivism, then look at a few other historical cases and see what we can learn.  Collectivism will always eventually destroy the economy of any nation, no matter how great it may be.

Venezuela – 17 Years of Collectivism
In 1980, Venezuela was deemed to be the fourteenth most economically free country in the world. Today, it’s a veritable train wreck, having failed in every conceivable way. How did this happen? Was it just bad luck? No, quite the contrary.

Venezuela’s prosperity was fueled primarily by the export of oil. The downward spiral began in the 1980s as a result of a drop in the world oil price. Until that time, there had been strong public support for the free market, but diminished oil receipts resulted in a decline in living standards for most all Venezuelans, which left them open to claims by collectivist political candidates that the whole problem was the free market. In 1999, they elected Hugo Chávez, who promised to solve the problem through collectivism – the promise of a chicken in every pot.

Mister Chávez began to take from the “haves” and provide largesse for the “have-nots.” Not surprisingly, he was highly praised by the have-nots. So, he went further. He nationalized many of Venezuela’s industries. Industry became less and less profitable, so less and less money flowed through the system each year. Eventually, the revenue to the government was insufficient to pay for the promised largesse. The leader then died and the new leader, Nicolás Maduro, inherited a zombie economy. In desperation, he introduced capital controls and increased nationalization and regulations, hoping to squeeze as much as possible from the economy before it went off the cliff. The result was a fully dysfunctional economy, replete with massive job losses, increasing shortages, and, finally, starvation.

Again, having once been number fourteen on the list of economically free countries, Venezuela is now at the very bottom – at number 152 – as a direct result of collectivism. As Margaret Thatcher once said, “The trouble with socialism is that, eventually, you run out of other people’s money.” Quite so. It does take a while, however. A newly collectivist state at first appears to be solving problems. What it’s really doing is feeding off of past profits. It gobbles up the economy’s store of nuts, but when these nuts are gone, that’s it – there’s no more, and the economy collapses. People starve.

Venezuela now has increasing shortages of food, hyperinflation has set in, the government is totally corrupt, the government is running out of funds for entitlements, and government healthcare is overburdened and failing. Like Cuba in the 1980s, there are no longer any dogs or cats on the streets of Caracas, and for the same reason as in Cuba – they’re being eaten by those with no other source of protein.

USSR – 74 Years
Vladimir Lenin introduced collectivism to Russia in 1917. He was able to do so because a revolution had just been completed by the people of Russia as a result of their dissatisfaction with a decline in the standard of living of most Russians. For decades thereafter, capitalism existed within the primarily communist system, but eventually, the parasite sucked the host dry. The USSR collapsed in 1991 for the same reason Venezuela is collapsing today.

China – 29 Years
Mao Tse-tung took over China in 1949 with a collectivist regime. But the 10,000-year rule he promised fell a bit short. It ended in 1978 in an economic dead-end. It followed the same path as the USSR, but the process was quicker.

Cuba – 57+ Years
Cuba lasted a bit longer. In the 1950s Cubans had become dissatisfied, due to the decline in the standard of living for the majority of Cubans, and were ripe targets for collectivist promises. They welcomed Fidel Castro in 1959. Cuba limped along for decades, but in recent years, the coffers of the state have dried up and the only hope to keep paying the salaries to government leaders lies in the grassroots cuentapropista movement – a rebirth of the free market. Collectivism in Cuba is nearing its end.

In each of the above countries, the pattern has been roughly the same.
  • A formerly prosperous country experiences a period in which the standard of living for the majority of citizens drops significantly.
  • The voters react by electing a new leader who promises a chicken in every pot (in essence, collectivism, although it is not always called that at the time of the election).
  • The new leader begins to rob the producers of wealth to provide largesse for those with less. This has a direct positive benefit for those with less, resulting in an increase in voters supporting collectivist promises over a period of years.
  • Over time, the free market experiences a permanent loss of wealth, resulting in diminished largesse for those who are now dependent upon it.
  • The government imposes increasing capital controls and other regulations, which deteriorate the free market more severely, causing inflation, shortages of goods, loss of jobs, and eventually starvation and systemic collapse.
  • The voters choose a new leader who promises fiscal responsibility.
  • With a return to a freer market, prosperity slowly reappears.
The pattern is a predictable one because it’s based on human nature. An economic downturn occurs. The voters become suckers for false promises. The new collectivist government appears successful at first, because it’s feeding off the remains of the free market. But, eventually, it destroys the free market and collectivism crashes and burns.

So what does the above review tell us? Has the world learned its lesson? Not at all. What we can surmise from the above is that, whenever the standard of living for the majority of citizens drops significantly in a jurisdiction, the voters will be ripe for empty promises. In every such case, collectivism will appear to be the best solution.

Collectivism is by its very nature a parasitical system that creates nothing. It therefore will always eventually destroy the economy of any nation where it’s implemented, no matter how great that nation may be. The only uncertainty is the number of years required for destruction.

Today we’re witnessing the collapse of the primary jurisdictions of the former “free” world. They’re operating on a quasi-capitalist system that has been eroded by repeated injections of collectivism (primarily socialism and fascism). Increasingly, voters in each of these jurisdictions are becoming convinced that the promises made by collectivist candidates “just make sense.” As the system continues to spiral downward, as it inevitably will, the scales are likely to tip, not in the direction of a return to the free market, but in the direction of full-on collectivism.

Editor’s Note: Socialism often leads to economic and societal collapse, hyperinflation, shortages, and shrinking personal freedom. This has happened most recently in Venezuela.

The truth is, it can happen anywhere. The U.S. is not immune. In fact, it’s extremely vulnerable.
Increasing socialism, bad financial decisions, and massive debt levels will cause another financial crisis sooner rather than later.

We believe the coming crash is going to be much worse, much longer, and very different than what we saw in 2008 and 2009. Unfortunately, most people have no idea what really happens when an economy collapses, let alone how to prepare….

That’s exactly why Doug Casey and his team just released an urgent video.


It also reveals how financial shock far greater than 2008 could strike America by the end of the year. And how it could either wipe out a big part of your savings... or be the fortune-building opportunity of a lifetime.


Click here to watch now
The article A Chicken in Every Pot was originally published at caseyresearch.com.

Monday, October 10, 2016

One Giant Powder Keg… and the Fuse is Already Lit

By Nick Giambruno

Their mission was to capture, or more likely, kill. Dozens of renegade commandos in three Blackhawk helicopters swooped in on the holiday residence of the president. Immediately, they engaged in a fierce gun battle with the president’s bodyguards and killed a number of them. Tourists in a nearby five-star resort fled for their lives. Their idyllic vacations had turned into a war zone in the blink of an eye.

The president, however, was nowhere to be found. He had been tipped off about the plot and made it to the safety of his private jet. He had cheated death by mere minutes. The renegade soldiers got wind of the escape. They commandeered a couple of F16 fighter jets and sent them to the skies to shoot down the presidential jet. Aware the rebel F16s were hunting them, the president’s pilots were able to obfuscate the identity of their aircraft by altering the jet’s transponder signal.

The transponder is an electronic signal that shows an aircraft’s identity. It’s used by air traffic controllers to keep track of planes in the air. Somehow, the pilots of the presidential jet were able to set their transponder signal to make it appear as if they were instead a civilian passenger jet. The confused rebel fighter jets ran out of fuel and had to return to base before they figured out what happened.

The president had cheated death for the second time that day. This story sounds like something out of a Tom Clancy novel or a Hollywood blockbuster. But it’s not. It happened in real life earlier this summer. In Turkey.
The country is one giant powder keg and the fuse is already lit. When the next global crisis explodes, there’s a good chance Turkey will be involved somehow.

Turkey was founded from the ashes of the Ottoman Empire. It’s where Europe meets Asia. Today, it’s at the epicenter of many crises that are destabilizing the world the migrant disaster in Europe, the ongoing carnage in Iraq and Syria, the battle with ISIS, a conflict with the Kurds, and the new Cold War with Russia. It could soon also play a big role in the collapse of the world’s largest economy, the European Union (EU).

It’s hard to think of another place that has more tripwires for a global meltdown. In light of all these potential triggers as well as the recent failed military coup d’état that killed over 290 people, I thought it was time to take a closer look at Turkey. Doug Casey and I just returned from the crisis stricken country, the latest destination we visited with (literal) blood in the streets.

We put our boots on the ground in the same area where that hit squad of rebel soldiers nearly assassinated Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the Turkish president. (In addition to all of the crises listed above, the Turkish military had invaded northern Syria just before our arrival.)

Perhaps most importantly, Turkey is at the heart of the migrant crisis that is tearing Europe apart. The migrant crisis will be one of the main issues on the minds of Italians as they vote in the upcoming referendum, which could very well decide the fate of the EU and the euro currency. That’s why I’ve spent weeks on the ground in Italy, watching these events unfold.

The Financial Times commented on what would happen if the Italian referendum fails:


It would probably lead to the most violent economic shock in history, dwarfing the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy in 2008 and the 1929 Wall Street crash.

Like with the Brexit vote, the migrant issue and by extension Turkey may determine the outcome of the Italian referendum on December 4, 2016.


Turkey Holds the Keys to the EU’s Future

Parroting U.S. concerns about democracy and human rights, the EU has also harshly criticized Turkey’s response to the failed coup. This hasn’t endeared them to the Turkish government. It’s actually incredibly stupid for the Europeans. And by stupid I mean exactly that an unwitting tendency toward self destruction. The Europeans fail to see the indirect and delayed consequences of their decision to antagonize the Turkish government.

That’s because the Turkish government holds the trump card on what is perhaps the most explosive political issue on the continent right now: the migrant crisis. Concerns about the unprecedented flow of migrants into Europe over the past couple of years played a key role in the Brexit vote. It’s also acting as a political accelerant to the rise of anti-EU parties all over Europe. It’s a simple relationship. The more migrants come to Europe, the more popular anti-EU political parties become, and the weaker the EU itself becomes.

This is where Turkey holds the keys to the future political landscape of Europe. Turkey is a major transit point migrants use on their way to Europe. The Turkish government doesn’t want the migrants to stay in Turkey, so they haven’t really had much of a reason to stop them from leaving for Europe. They even enjoyed the situation because it gave them negotiating leverage with Brussels. The Turks essentially said “give us what we want or we’ll open the floodgates.”

What the Turks want is lots of money and to join the Schengen visa free zone, which allows unfettered access to most of Europe. Brussels partially gave in to the blackmail. They started giving the Turks money to the tune of $6 billion and agreed to hold talks about getting visa-free access to the continent. In return, the Turks would cut off the flow of migrants.

For a while this arrangement worked. But after the attempted coup and then the purge of suspected putschists, the EU cried foul. They deemed the purges to be an erosion of democracy and the rule of law.
They basically told the Erdogan government it can forget about joining the Schengen zone.

Unsurprisingly, the Turkish government not so subtly warned that if the EU walks away from its part of the deal, so will it. Specifically, the Turkish government has threatened to open the migrant floodgates just in time for the Italian referendum and other key European elections. The Italian referendum could very well lead to the end of the euro and the EU itself, while triggering a global financial meltdown of historical proportions.

Turkey sending a new wave of migrants into Europe just before this key vote will help seal its fate.
There are potentially severe consequences in the currency and stock markets. That’s exactly why I recently spent weeks on the ground in Italy getting the scoop on this explosive story that almost nobody else is talking about.

New York Times best selling author Doug Casey and I just released an urgent video with all the details.
Our video reveals how a financial shock far greater than 2008 could strike America on December 4th, 2016. And how it could either wipe out a big part of your savings or be the fortune building opportunity of a lifetime. 

The video describes specific ways to profit as well as which stocks to avoid like radioactive waste. You can get a first look at this video by clicking here.




Get our latest FREE eBook "Understanding Options"....Just Click Here!

Saturday, September 24, 2016

Carley Garner's "Higher Probability Commodity Trading"

Carley Garner's new book "Higher Probability Commodity Trading" takes readers on an unprecedented journey through the treacherous commodity markets; shedding light on topics rarely discussed in trading literature from a unique perspective, with the intention of increasing the odds of success for market participants.

In its quest to guide traders through the process of commodity market analysis, strategy development, and risk management, Higher Probability Commodity Trading discusses several alternative market concepts and unconventional views such as option selling tactics, hedging futures positions with options, and combining the practice of fundamental, technical, seasonal, and sentiment analysis to gauge market price changes.

Carley, is a frequent contributor of commodity market analysis to CNBC's Mad Money TV show hosted by Jim Cramer. She has also been a futures and options broker, where for over a decade she has had a front row seat to the victories and defeats the commodity markets deal to traders.

Garner has a knack for portraying complex commodity trading concepts, in an easy-to-read and entertaining format. Readers of Higher Probability Commodity Trading are sure to walk away with a better understanding of the futures and options market, but more importantly with the benefit of years of market lessons learned without the expensive lessons.

Get Higher Probability Commodity Trading on Amazon....Get it Here!

Wednesday, September 14, 2016

The Next Big Short



The "Next Big Short" is a collection of looming market risks from The Heisenberg. This 37 page special report will show you the risks in the markets. How to explain The Heisenberg?

Essentially, it's a collective brain trust of skilled traders willing to discuss markets with the freedom of anonymity. You can enjoy Heisenberg's lively market commentary in the TheoDark Report section of their public blog.

Get the "Next Big Short " free special report....Just Click Here

For more backstory, here's Heisenberg in his own words: Heisenberg spent a long time in college. Probably too long. Be that as it may, the experience afforded him extensive cross disciplinary experience. From Aristotle to Kant to Wittgenstein, from Hobbes to Locke to Rousseau, from plain vanilla equities to FX to CDS, Heisenberg is right at home. With degrees in political science and business, as well as extensive post graduate work in political science and public administration, Heisenberg is uniquely positioned to analyze markets from a holistic perspective. He also has a sense of humor, which allows him to fully appreciate how entertaining it is to talk about himself in the third person.

Heisenberg has traded pretty much everything at one time or another and if he hasn’t traded it, he’s studied it enough to drive himself just as crazy as if he had. He doesn’t sleep much because the terminal doesn’t sleep and neither, generally speaking, do currency markets.

Heisenberg once took the law school admission test (LSAT) for fun with no intention of actually going to law school. He then took it again to try and beat his first score. He paid for the second test with profits he made from long calls on a Brazilian water utility ADR that he sold to close from the first iPhone (the 2.5G version that no one remembers) in the middle of a graduate political science class. His score on the verbal section of the graduate management admission test (GMAT) was near perfect. As was his score on the analytical writing portion. Don’t ask about the math section. He got bored after two hours and didn’t care about using the Pythagorean theorem to determine how long Timmy’s shadow was when he was standing next to a 90 degree flag pole.

Professionally, Heisenberg has worked in Manhattan and many other locales and has years of experience generating and monetizing financial web content. He’s continually amused at those who make it seem hard. You provide quality content for users on a consistent basis. Everything else falls into place. Build it, and they will come.

Get the "Next Big Short " free special report....Just Click Here


See you in the markets putting the Next Big Short to work,
Ray C. Parrish
aka the Crude Oil Trader


Tuesday, September 13, 2016

Five Ways to “Crash Proof” Your Portfolio Right Now

By Justin Spittler

The U.S. economy is running out of breath. As you probably know, the U.S. economy has been “recovering” since 2009. The current recovery, now seven years old, is one of the longest in U.S. history. It’s also one of the weakest.

Since 2009, the U.S. economy has grown at just 2.1% per year, making this the slowest recovery since World War II. Last quarter, the economy grew at just 1.1%. We won’t know how the economy did during this quarter until late October.

But we don’t expect good news, and that’s because signs of a stalling economy are everywhere.

They’re in the job market. 
The U.S. economy created 29,000 fewer jobs last month than economists expected. 
They’re in corporate earnings.
Profits for companies in the S&P 500 have been falling since 2014.
They’re even in the price of oil.
Right now, U.S. demand for gasoline is weak, which tells us Americans aren’t driving as much.

Today, we’re going to look at even more evidence that the economy is struggling. If this flood of bad economic data continues, the U.S. could soon enter its first recession in seven years. Normally, this wouldn’t worry us. After all, recessions are a normal part of the business cycle. But we don’t expect the next downturn to be a “run of the mill” recession. According to Casey Research founder Doug Casey, the next financial crisis will be “much more severe, different, and longer lasting than what we saw in 2008 and 2009.” The good news is that there’s still time to protect yourself. We’ll show you how at the end of today’s issue. But first, you need to understand why we’re so worried about the economy.

The U.S. auto market is cooling off..…
The auto market has been one of the economy’s bright spots since the financial crisis. Auto sales have climbed six straight years. Last year, the industry sold a record 17.5 million cars. Many analysts see the booming auto market as proof that the economy is heading in the right direction. Like a house, a car is a big purchase. Most people will only spend thousands of dollars on a car if they think the economy is doing well. After all, you wouldn’t buy a new car if you thought you were going to lose your job next month.

Because of this, car sales can say a lot about consumer confidence.

Auto sales plunged last month..…
     Yahoo! Finance reported last week:
The seasonally adjusted rate of motor vehicle sales decreased to 17 million from 17.88 million in July. Both car and truck sales were down for the month. For August, total vehicle sales were 1,512,556, down from 1,577,407 for a decrease of 4.1%.
After rising 66 straight months, retail car sales have now fallen four out of the last six months. And this trend is likely to continue. According to The Wall Street Journal, the CEO of Ford (F) said he expects his industry to sell fewer cars this year than they did last year. He expects sales to fall even more in 2017.
This isn’t just bad news for automakers like Ford. It’s a problem for the entire economy.

If people buy fewer cars, they’re probably going to take fewer vacations. They’re going to eat out less. They’re going to buy new clothes less often. In other words, the big drop off in car sales could mean U.S. consumers are starting to cut back.

The U.S. manufacturing sector is weakening right now..…
Last week, the Institute of Supply Management (ISM) reported that its Purchasing Managers’ Index fell from 52.6 in July to 49.6 in August. This index measures the strength of the U.S. manufacturing sector. When the index dips below 50, it signals recession.

The U.S. services sector is hurting too..…
The services sector is made up of businesses that sell services instead of goods. It includes industries like banking and healthcare. The ISM Services Index fell from 55.5 in July to 51.4 last month. While this doesn’t indicate recession, last month’s sharp decline was still a major disappointment. Economists expected the index to hit 55.0. Last month’s reading was also the lowest since February 2010. More importantly, the services and manufacturing sectors are now weakening at the same time.

MarketWatch explained why that’s not a good sign last week:
[I]t’s unusual that both indexes would soften so much at the same time. The manufacturing index dropped to 49.4% from 52.6% in August and the ISM services gauge retreated to 51.4% from 55.5%. The combined reading of two indexes was also the weakest in six years.
Since these indexes often track closely with gross domestic product, the surprisingly poor turn has not gone unnoticed.
Right now, several key economic indicators are saying the economy is in trouble..…
We encourage you to take these warnings seriously. If you have any money in the stock market right now, take a good look at your portfolio. Get rid of any expensive stocks. They tend to fall further than cheap stocks during major sell offs. You should also avoid companies that need a growing economy to make money. These include airlines, major retailers, and restaurants; basically any company that depends on a healthy U.S. consumer.

Avoid companies with a lot of debt. If the economy continues to weaken, heavily indebted companies will struggle to pay their lenders. You don’t want to own a company that falls behind on its loans. We encourage you to hold more cash than usual. Setting aside cash will allow you to buy world class businesses for cheap after the next big sell off.

Finally, we recommend you own physical gold. As we often point out, gold is real money. It’s preserved wealth for centuries because it’s a unique asset. It’s durable, easily divisible, and easy to transport. It’s also survived every major financial crisis in history. This makes it the ultimate safe haven asset. These simple yet proven strategies will help “crash proof” your portfolio in case the economy continues to weaken. That’s never been more important.

To see why, watch this short presentation.

It talks about a major warning sign that one of Casey’s analysts recently uncovered. As you’ll see, this same warning appeared before the savings and loan crisis of the 1980s, before the ’97 Asian financial crisis and just before the 2000 tech crash.

More importantly, it explains how you can protect yourself today. Click here to watch.

Chart of the Day

The U.S. manufacturing sector is flashing warning signs. Today’s chart shows the ISM Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) going back to 2000. As we said earlier, this index measures the strength of the U.S. manufacturing sector. Last month, the ISM PMI hit 49.6. Any reading below 50 indicates recession.

You can see this index plunged below 50 during the last two recessions. It also sent out a few “false signals” over the years. It dipped below 50 but a recession never followed. Like any indicator, the ISM PMI isn’t perfect. Still, it’s worth keeping a close eye on. If manufacturing activity continues to weaken, other parts of the economy will too. And the ISM PMI is just one of many economic indicators flashing danger right now.




Get our latest FREE eBook "Understanding Options"....Just Click Here!

Tuesday, September 6, 2016

Webinar Replay...Low Risk Setups For Trading Precise Turning Points in Any Market

On September 6th John Carter of Simpler Options treated us to a special online training webinar. We discovered low risk option strategies for catching "bold and beautiful" reversal trades. John also showed us how to hunt for tops and bottoms using low risk setups for trading precise turning points in any market and so much more.

Watch the FREE Replay Here

Most traders have no idea how to capture the massive profit potential from trading major reversals. These days’ markets often turn on a dime and those who wait for ‘conservative’ setups either miss out or suffer steep losses.

Here's what you can expect to learn during this webinar session....

  *  A simple 3-step process to identify major market turning points in any market

  *  How to find low risk, high probability trades in today's volatile market conditions

  *  Why it’s finally possible to catch tops and bottoms in real time on almost any chart

  *  Why these ‘Bold and Beautiful’ reversal trades can be safer than ‘comfortable’ trades

  *  How to avoid getting suckered into the costly traps that most traders fall into

  *  How to adapt your trades automatically for choppy conditions AND big trends

  *  How to know when a support or resistance level is likely to hold or not


       Watch the FREE replay Right Here


       See you in the markets,
       Ray Parrish
       aka the Crude Oil Trader


Get John's latest FREE eBook "Understanding Options"....Just Click Here!




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